Morecambe and Lunesdale: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Morecambe and Lunesdale: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: David Morris  (CON)
County/Area: Lancashire (North West)
Electorate: 66,838
Turnout: 68.3%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON21,77347.7%44.5%
LAB20,37444.6%43.6%
LIB1,6993.7%3.8%
UKIP1,3332.9%5.9%
Green4781.0%2.2%
CON Majority1,3993.1%Pred Maj 0.9%
Chance of
winning
CON
51%
LAB
49%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%

Morecambe and Lunesdale : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Morecambe and Lunesdale constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position2° Right6° Left
National Position6° Nat2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %56%54%52%
British Identity27%28%29%
Good Health43%46%48%
UK Born95%92%88%
Good Education36%37%39%
Good Job45%49%51%
High SEC46%48%51%
Average Age51.848.648.5
ABC1 Class45%50%53%

Morecambe and Lunesdale ranks #257 for "Leave", #294 for "Right" and #245 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Morecambe and Lunesdale: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Morecambe and Lunesdale: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Morecambe and Lunesdale

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Morecambe and Lunesdale at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Morecambe and Lunesdale. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Morecambe and LunesdaleActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
LancasterBare20152,4672,3103726036823,051
LancasterBolton and Slyne20155,6202,05541909441,719
LancasterCarnforth and Millhead20153,8272,929004950
LancasterHalton-with-Aughton201536414200423577
LancasterHarbour20157223,4560840359833
LancasterHeysham Central20157241,5210001,441
LancasterHeysham North20154911,5000420162507
LancasterHeysham South20152,2442,55206730740
LancasterKellet2015982216001390
LancasterOverton20154882650058329
LancasterPoulton20153981,2500426339716
LancasterSilverdale20154001093270142358
LancasterSkerton East20158483,653001,519232
LancasterSkerton West20151,0374,0530816740295
LancasterTorrisholme20159011,2511925041761,164
LancasterUpper Lune Valley20151,103221001870
LancasterWarton201552926600178248
LancasterWestgate20159853,65509700696

Morecambe and LunesdaleTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
LancasterBare5,1129138551382232521,1293,510
LancasterBolton and Slyne5,5461,99072814803346093,809
LancasterCarnforth and Millhead4,6061,6701,2780021603,164
LancasterHalton-with-Aughton1,732288112003344561,190
LancasterHarbour5,9014712,25605482345444,053
LancasterHeysham Central3,4064599650009152,339
LancasterHeysham North3,6173961,21003391314092,485
LancasterHeysham South4,9151,2201,387036604023,375
LancasterKellet1,6028081780011401,100
LancasterOverton1,74651327900613461,199
LancasterPoulton4,2003671,15203933136602,885
LancasterSilverdale1,398287782350102257959
LancasterSkerton East5,0104672,011008361283,442
LancasterSkerton West5,3185462,13304293891553,652
LancasterTorrisholme3,351495687106277976402,302
LancasterUpper Lune Valley1,8009021810015301,236
LancasterWarton1,547460231001552161,062
LancasterWestgate5,6696082,257059904303,894
 Total66,47612,86017,9786273,1743,7217,29645,656

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Morecambe and LunesdaleEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
LancasterBare5,1401,9431,2022081322703,512
LancasterBolton and Slyne5,5762,4661,069228182803,809
LancasterCarnforth and Millhead4,6311,6111,40754385303,163
LancasterHalton-with-Aughton1,7417333586613101,189
LancasterHarbour5,9331,4372,312771784804,052
LancasterHeysham Central3,4251,0721,1498829102,339
LancasterHeysham North3,6379971,247801263502,485
LancasterHeysham South4,9421,7351,45041143603,375
LancasterKellet1,6118262095031201,100
LancasterOverton1,7566964342540501,200
LancasterPoulton4,2231,2261,461701022502,884
LancasterSilverdale1,4065431982011160959
LancasterSkerton East5,0371,1292,047154238703,440
LancasterSkerton West5,3471,2662,132611484403,651
LancasterTorrisholme3,3691,146909110128802,301
LancasterUpper Lune Valley1,8108772845202401,237
LancasterWarton1,5556822995841901,062
LancasterWestgate5,7001,3882,20875217703,895
 Total66,47621,77320,3751,6981,331476045,656

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Morecambe and Lunesdale

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Morecambe and Lunesdale.

Morecambe and LunesdalePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
LancasterBare5,1401,8301,1662102386803,512
LancasterBolton and Slyne5,5762,3441,0302301327203,808
LancasterCarnforth and Millhead4,6311,5091,375561339003,163
LancasterHalton-with-Aughton1,74169534667374501,190
LancasterHarbour5,9331,3072,271793009504,052
LancasterHeysham Central3,4259971,12589992802,338
LancasterHeysham North3,6379171,222812016402,485
LancasterHeysham South4,9421,6271,416432444503,375
LancasterKellet1,61179119851362501,101
LancasterOverton1,75665742226761901,200
LancasterPoulton4,2231,1331,432721895902,885
LancasterSilverdale1,40651218820230270959
LancasterSkerton East5,0371,0192,01215612612703,440
LancasterSkerton West5,3471,1492,095632588603,651
LancasterTorrisholme3,3691,0728861111973502,301
LancasterUpper Lune Valley1,81083727153373801,236
LancasterWarton1,55564828859363101,062
LancasterWestgate5,7001,2632,169773345203,895
 Total66,47620,30719,9121,7252,7031,006045,653

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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