Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles): Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles): Overview

 Prediction: SNP hold 

MP at 2017: Angus MacNeil  (SNP)
County/Area: Western Isles (Scotland)
Electorate: 21,301
Turnout: 69.6%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
SNP6,01340.6%42.9%
LAB5,00633.8%33.5%
CON2,44116.5%13.6%
MIN1,1087.5%7.5%
LIB2501.7%1.4%
UKIP00.0%0.4%
Green00.0%0.7%
NAT Majority1,0076.8%Pred Maj 9.5%
Chance of
winning
SNP
67%
LAB
29%
CON
4%
MIN
0%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%

Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatScotlandAll GB
Party WinnerSNPSNPCON
Economic Position22° Left14° Left
National Position15° Int17° Int1° Int
EU Leave %45%38%52%
British Identity22%27%29%
Good Health54%52%48%
UK Born97%93%88%
Good Education36%36%39%
Good Job42%49%51%
High SEC55%55%51%
Average Age52.548.748.5
ABC1 Class43%50%53%

Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) ranks #498 for "Leave", #642 for "Right" and #535 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles): Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles): Ward-by-ward

Workings for Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles). The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)Actual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
Other
Votes
Na h-Eileanan an larAn Taobh Siar agus Nis2012000002981,166
Na h-Eileanan an larBarraigh, Bhatarsaigh, Eirisgeigh agus Uibhist a Deas20120210000576606
Na h-Eileanan an larBeinn na Foghla agus Uibhist a Tuath20120204000177696
Na h-Eileanan an larLoch a Tuath201200000290892
Na h-Eileanan an larNa Hearadh agus Ceann a Deas nan Loch2012069000235498
Na h-Eileanan an larSgire an Rubha2012000001411,029
Na h-Eileanan an larSgir’ Uige agus Ceann a Tuath nan Loch201200000464970
Na h-Eileanan an larSteòrnabhagh a Deas2012000002021,298
Na h-Eileanan an larSteòrnabhagh a Tuath20120400003501,056

Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)Turnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Na h-Eileanan an larAn Taobh Siar agus Nis2,537000003521,3771,729
Na h-Eileanan an larBarraigh, Bhatarsaigh, Eirisgeigh agus Uibhist a Deas2,48502550007017371,693
Na h-Eileanan an larBeinn na Foghla agus Uibhist a Tuath2,31802990002601,0211,580
Na h-Eileanan an larLoch a Tuath2,276000003811,1701,551
Na h-Eileanan an larNa Hearadh agus Ceann a Deas nan Loch1,82201070003647711,242
Na h-Eileanan an larSgire an Rubha1,984000001631,1891,352
Na h-Eileanan an larSgir’ Uige agus Ceann a Tuath nan Loch2,357000005201,0861,606
Na h-Eileanan an larSteòrnabhagh a Deas2,930000002691,7281,997
Na h-Eileanan an larSteòrnabhagh a Tuath3,0360570005011,5112,069
 Total21,74507180003,51110,59014,819

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)Est. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Na h-Eileanan an larAn Taobh Siar agus Nis2,48528663527006391421,729
Na h-Eileanan an larBarraigh, Bhatarsaigh, Eirisgeigh agus Uibhist a Deas2,434279509900799961,692
Na h-Eileanan an larBeinn na Foghla agus Uibhist a Tuath2,27127360346005461121,580
Na h-Eileanan an larLoch a Tuath2,23027751414006321131,550
Na h-Eileanan an larNa Hearadh agus Ceann a Deas nan Loch1,7852793591200506861,242
Na h-Eileanan an larSgire an Rubha1,94321949931004871161,352
Na h-Eileanan an larSgir’ Uige agus Ceann a Tuath nan Loch2,30920250461007201201,607
Na h-Eileanan an larSteòrnabhagh a Deas2,87033870126007671641,996
Na h-Eileanan an larSteòrnabhagh a Tuath2,97428768125009181582,069
 Total21,7452,4405,005251006,0141,10714,819

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles).

Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)Predicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Na h-Eileanan an larAn Taobh Siar agus Nis2,485235630236126801421,728
Na h-Eileanan an larBarraigh, Bhatarsaigh, Eirisgeigh agus Uibhist a Deas2,4342305048612837961,693
Na h-Eileanan an larBeinn na Foghla agus Uibhist a Tuath2,271225598396125871121,579
Na h-Eileanan an larLoch a Tuath2,230228509126126701131,550
Na h-Eileanan an larNa Hearadh agus Ceann a Deas nan Loch1,78523535510510540861,241
Na h-Eileanan an larSgire an Rubha1,943180495265105201161,352
Na h-Eileanan an larSgir’ Uige agus Ceann a Tuath nan Loch2,309166499525107541201,606
Na h-Eileanan an larSteòrnabhagh a Deas2,870278695227158151641,996
Na h-Eileanan an larSteòrnabhagh a Tuath2,974236675216139601582,069
 Total21,7452,0134,960213521066,3631,10714,814

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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