Neath: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Neath: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2017: Christina Rees  (LAB)
County/Area: West Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate: 55,859
Turnout: 68.5%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB21,71356.7%55.7%
CON9,08223.7%20.6%
Plaid5,33913.9%13.9%
UKIP1,4193.7%6.6%
LIB7321.9%2.0%
Green00.0%1.1%
LAB Majority12,63133.0%Pred Maj 35.1%
Chance of
winning
LAB
94%
CON
5%
Plaid
1%
UKIP
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%

Neath : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Neath constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position18° Left10° Left
National Position2° Int3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %56%53%52%
British Identity20%26%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born98%95%88%
Good Education32%36%39%
Good Job46%46%51%
High SEC43%46%51%
Average Age50.449.648.5
ABC1 Class43%47%53%

Neath ranks #273 for "Leave", #607 for "Right" and #435 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Neath: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Neath: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Neath

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Neath at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Neath. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

NeathActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Neath Port TalbotAberdulais201204310002900
Neath Port TalbotAllt-wen201204630002100
Neath Port TalbotBlaengwrach201203630002900
Neath Port TalbotBryn-cch North201201780006770
Neath Port TalbotBryn-cch South201201,5590001,5690
Neath Port TalbotCadoxton201202961850000
Neath Port TalbotCimla201201,655226000183
Neath Port TalbotCrynant201203700002800
Neath Port TalbotCwmllynfell201203480001100
Neath Port TalbotDyffryn20127800001,0000
Neath Port TalbotGlynneath201201,1220001,2450
Neath Port TalbotGodre'r graig201202860003000
Neath Port TalbotGwaun-Cae-Gurwen201204840003520
Neath Port TalbotLower Brynamman20120-100000
Neath Port TalbotNeath East201202,5390001,2080
Neath Port TalbotNeath North20121881,3370000341
Neath Port TalbotNeath South201201,383000299397
Neath Port TalbotOnllwyn20120328000960
Neath Port TalbotPelenna2012064000227252
Neath Port TalbotPontardawe201201,3410001,5860
Neath Port TalbotResolven201207290002780
Neath Port TalbotRhos20120393000265223
Neath Port TalbotSeven Sisters201202410000764
Neath Port TalbotTonna201205580000328
Neath Port TalbotTrebanos2012016600030253
Neath Port TalbotYstalyfera201204220005910

NeathTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Neath Port TalbotAberdulais1,826074500050101,246
Neath Port TalbotAllt-wen1,751082200037301,195
Neath Port TalbotBlaengwrach1,514057400045901,033
Neath Port TalbotBryn-cch North1,708024300092301,166
Neath Port TalbotBryn-cch South4,44401,5120001,52103,033
Neath Port TalbotCadoxton1,28205383360000874
Neath Port TalbotCimla2,97901,6302230001802,033
Neath Port TalbotCrynant1,45405650004270992
Neath Port TalbotCwmllynfell89504640001470611
Neath Port TalbotDyffryn2,39811800001,51801,636
Neath Port TalbotGlynneath2,612084500093801,783
Neath Port TalbotGodre'r graig1,24104130004340847
Neath Port TalbotGwaun-Cae-Gurwen2,217087600063701,513
Neath Port TalbotLower Brynamman1,009068900000689
Neath Port TalbotNeath East4,88102,2570001,07403,331
Neath Port TalbotNeath North3,0362091,48500003792,073
Neath Port TalbotNeath South3,77401,7130003704922,575
Neath Port TalbotOnllwyn90504780001400618
Neath Port TalbotPelenna875070000250277597
Neath Port TalbotPontardawe4,14401,2960001,53202,828
Neath Port TalbotResolven2,39401,18300045101,634
Neath Port TalbotRhos1,88105730003863251,284
Neath Port TalbotSeven Sisters1,615026400008381,102
Neath Port TalbotTonna1,897081500004791,294
Neath Port TalbotTrebanos1,060023000041974723
Neath Port TalbotYstalyfera2,308065600091901,575
 Total56,10032720,9365590013,4193,04438,285

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

NeathEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Neath Port TalbotAberdulais1,818304728324018601,245
Neath Port TalbotAllt-wen1,7432017822121017001,195
Neath Port TalbotBlaengwrach1,507179656247014901,033
Neath Port TalbotBryn-cch North1,7014703922463021701,166
Neath Port TalbotBryn-cch South4,4259471,52823120041503,033
Neath Port TalbotCadoxton1,276175479171100410876
Neath Port TalbotCimla2,9663881,32414468011002,034
Neath Port TalbotCrynant1,448186573273901670992
Neath Port TalbotCwmllynfell89179392102301060610
Neath Port TalbotDyffryn2,3886325019115037801,635
Neath Port TalbotGlynneath2,601392972559035601,784
Neath Port TalbotGodre'r graig1,23615949442001690846
Neath Port TalbotGwaun-Cae-Gurwen2,2072648851839030701,513
Neath Port TalbotLower Brynamman1,00536552870870690
Neath Port TalbotNeath East4,8605452,2024680045703,330
Neath Port TalbotNeath North3,0234361,434680011702,073
Neath Port TalbotNeath South3,7586051,6453696019302,575
Neath Port TalbotOnllwyn901814342250760618
Neath Port TalbotPelenna8712212374490870598
Neath Port TalbotPontardawe4,1267081,40256110055202,828
Neath Port TalbotResolven2,3842621,1161246019801,634
Neath Port TalbotRhos1,8734236661448013301,284
Neath Port TalbotSeven Sisters1,608439493117408501,102
Neath Port TalbotTonna1,889380754175409001,295
Neath Port TalbotTrebanos1,055243265253601540723
Neath Port TalbotYstalyfera2,2983288083465034101,576
 Total56,1009,08321,7147321,41805,341038,285

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Neath

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Neath.

NeathPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Neath Port TalbotAberdulais1,8182637154621518601,245
Neath Port TalbotAllt-wen1,74316877022531317001,196
Neath Port TalbotBlaengwrach1,5071496463761114901,034
Neath Port TalbotBryn-cch North1,70143138025991421701,166
Neath Port TalbotBryn-cch South4,4258461,497252143641503,033
Neath Port TalbotCadoxton1,2761464701713710410875
Neath Port TalbotCimla2,9663241,3031451282311002,033
Neath Port TalbotCrynant1,4481555632868111670992
Neath Port TalbotCwmllynfell89166386103751060610
Neath Port TalbotDyffryn2,388578484101652037801,635
Neath Port TalbotGlynneath2,60133395461142135601,784
Neath Port TalbotGodre'r graig1,236133485445101690846
Neath Port TalbotGwaun-Cae-Gurwen2,20722087019811630701,513
Neath Port TalbotLower Brynamman1,005305458164870690
Neath Port TalbotNeath East4,8604552,168481683445703,330
Neath Port TalbotNeath North3,0233671,41371442511702,073
Neath Port TalbotNeath South3,7585191,619371753119302,574
Neath Port TalbotOnllwyn901684282395760618
Neath Port TalbotPelenna8712012314677870597
Neath Port TalbotPontardawe4,1266141,373581973455202,828
Neath Port TalbotResolven2,3842191,09913891719801,635
Neath Port TalbotRhos1,87338065315881513301,284
Neath Port TalbotSeven Sisters1,60840248212108138501,102
Neath Port TalbotTonna1,8893377411894159001,295
Neath Port TalbotTrebanos1,055219258255891540723
Neath Port TalbotYstalyfera2,298276792351141934101,577
 Total56,1007,89921,3257542,5364335,341038,288

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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