Newark: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Newark: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Robert Jenrick  (CON)
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 75,526
Turnout: 72.9%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON34,49362.7%58.9%
LAB16,34429.7%30.1%
LIB2,7865.1%5.1%
UKIP1,4192.6%4.9%
Green00.0%0.5%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority18,14933.0%Pred Maj 28.9%
Chance of
winning
CON
90%
LAB
10%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Newark : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Newark constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right3° Right
National Position10° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %58%59%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health47%45%48%
UK Born94%91%88%
Good Education40%36%39%
Good Job52%48%51%
High SEC55%47%51%
Average Age51.149.148.5
ABC1 Class55%50%53%

Newark ranks #213 for "Leave", #105 for "Right" and #126 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Newark: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Newark: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Newark

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Newark at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Newark. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

NewarkActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
BassetlawEast Markham20151,1103400000
BassetlawRampton20157913490000
BassetlawTuxford and Trent20152,5321,5890000
Newark and SherwoodBalderton North and Coddington20153,2641,0750001,193
Newark and SherwoodBalderton South20152,4729560000
Newark and SherwoodBeacon20154,8802,509361846565768
Newark and SherwoodBridge2015461411040401,714
Newark and SherwoodCastle20155923187919512389
Newark and SherwoodCollingham20152,7960828001,861
Newark and SherwoodDevon20154,3033,55200440881
Newark and SherwoodDover Beck2015-100000
Newark and SherwoodFarndon and Fernwood20154,9910082601,360
Newark and SherwoodLowdham2015-100000
Newark and SherwoodMuskham20151,348029402510
Newark and SherwoodRainworth North and Rufford20152,8363,1950000
Newark and SherwoodSouthwell20157,1452,5704,510000
Newark and SherwoodSutton-on-Trent20151,0060853000
Newark and SherwoodTrent2015-100000
RushcliffeBingham East20151,902602003692,115
RushcliffeBingham West20151,950666002901,097
RushcliffeCranmer20159954100000
RushcliffeEast Bridgford20151,2733910000
RushcliffeThoroton2015-100000

NewarkTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BassetlawEast Markham1,8511,05832400001,382
BassetlawRampton1,71088639100001,277
BassetlawTuxford and Trent3,1751,45691400002,370
Newark and SherwoodBalderton North and Coddington4,9752,1917220008013,714
Newark and SherwoodBalderton South3,6881,98676800002,754
Newark and SherwoodBeacon6,3222,3201,1931724022693654,721
Newark and SherwoodBridge4,952570508050002,1193,697
Newark and SherwoodCastle2,4367714141032541601161,818
Newark and SherwoodCollingham4,0071,5250452001,0152,992
Newark and SherwoodDevon7,0532,4692,038002525065,265
Newark and SherwoodDover Beck1,8021,345000001,345
Newark and SherwoodFarndon and Fernwood4,3902,2790037706213,277
Newark and SherwoodLowdham2,7122,025000002,025
Newark and SherwoodMuskham2,1861,1620253021601,631
Newark and SherwoodRainworth North and Rufford3351181320000250
Newark and SherwoodSouthwell5,5872,0957541,3220004,171
Newark and SherwoodSutton-on-Trent2,28092107810001,702
Newark and SherwoodTrent2,2131,652000001,652
RushcliffeBingham East3,5801,019323001981,1332,673
RushcliffeBingham West3,2271,174401001756602,410
RushcliffeCranmer2,3011,21750100001,718
RushcliffeEast Bridgford1,39679724500001,042
RushcliffeThoroton1,5471,155000001,155
 Total73,72532,1919,6283,0831,5331,2707,33655,041

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

NewarkEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BassetlawEast Markham1,8961,05531287001,382
BassetlawRampton1,752845399925001,278
BassetlawTuxford and Trent3,2531,4218931442002,370
Newark and SherwoodBalderton North and Coddington5,0972,3771,14310589003,714
Newark and SherwoodBalderton South3,7781,7828315486002,753
Newark and SherwoodBeacon6,4762,5471,754154265004,720
Newark and SherwoodBridge5,0731,3382,01030319003,697
Newark and SherwoodCastle2,496872694109143001,818
Newark and SherwoodCollingham4,1052,0087242527002,991
Newark and SherwoodDevon7,2252,6282,40248188005,266
Newark and SherwoodDover Beck1,8461,211118133001,345
Newark and SherwoodFarndon and Fernwood4,4972,38264861186003,277
Newark and SherwoodLowdham2,7781,718247582002,025
Newark and SherwoodMuskham2,2391,2322361604001,632
Newark and SherwoodRainworth North and Rufford3431181188600250
Newark and SherwoodSouthwell5,7232,5058538131004,172
Newark and SherwoodSutton-on-Trent2,3361,10820836916001,701
Newark and SherwoodTrent2,2671,444142643001,653
RushcliffeBingham East3,6671,5109881659002,672
RushcliffeBingham West3,3061,3968901186002,410
RushcliffeCranmer2,3571,2214048310001,718
RushcliffeEast Bridgford1,430741238621001,042
RushcliffeThoroton1,5851,03592281001,156
 Total73,72534,49416,3442,7851,4190055,041

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Newark

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Newark.

NewarkPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BassetlawEast Markham1,8961,003317840761,381
BassetlawRampton1,752797404955761,278
BassetlawTuxford and Trent3,2531,333902149812112,370
Newark and SherwoodBalderton North and Coddington5,0972,2391,15710517719173,714
Newark and SherwoodBalderton South3,7781,6798425415114132,753
Newark and SherwoodBeacon6,4762,3711,77215437624224,719
Newark and SherwoodBridge5,0731,2002,0243040619173,696
Newark and SherwoodCastle2,496804701109186981,817
Newark and SherwoodCollingham4,1051,8967362527715142,990
Newark and SherwoodDevon7,2252,4322,4224831227245,265
Newark and SherwoodDover Beck1,8461,1611231335761,345
Newark and SherwoodFarndon and Fernwood4,4972,2606616126317153,277
Newark and SherwoodLowdham2,7781,64225558501092,024
Newark and SherwoodMuskham2,2391,17124216042881,631
Newark and SherwoodRainworth North and Rufford34310911981211250
Newark and SherwoodSouthwell5,7232,3498698139921194,170
Newark and SherwoodSutton-on-Trent2,3361,04521536956981,702
Newark and SherwoodTrent2,2671,3821486442881,652
RushcliffeBingham East3,6671,4109981657214122,671
RushcliffeBingham West3,3061,3068991186312112,409
RushcliffeCranmer2,3571,1574118350981,718
RushcliffeEast Bridgford1,4307022426226551,042
RushcliffeThoroton1,585992962828651,155
 Total73,72532,44016,5552,7852,71628025355,029

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)