Newport West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Newport West: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2017: Paul Flynn  (LAB)
County/Area: Gwent (Wales)
Electorate: 64,399
Turnout: 67.5%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB22,72352.3%52.3%
CON17,06539.3%39.2%
UKIP1,1002.5%2.5%
Plaid1,0772.5%2.5%
LIB9762.2%2.3%
Green4971.1%1.2%
LAB Majority5,65813.0%Pred Maj 13.0%
Chance of
winning
LAB
100%
CON
0%
UKIP
0%
Plaid
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%

Newport West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Newport West constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position6° Left10° Left
National Position2° Int3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %52%53%52%
British Identity31%26%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born92%95%88%
Good Education38%36%39%
Good Job52%46%51%
High SEC50%46%51%
Average Age48.949.648.5
ABC1 Class52%47%53%

Newport West ranks #354 for "Leave", #460 for "Right" and #433 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Newport West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Newport West: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Newport West

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Newport West at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Newport West. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Newport WestActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
NewportAllt-yr-yn20123,9762,70124600236755
NewportBettws (Newport)201201,79400002,311
NewportCaerleon20122,6914,2703000000
NewportGaer20121,4223,388156002380
NewportGraig (Newport)20121,7071,2981690000
NewportMalpas20121,9883,6530068600
NewportMarshfield20121,387739609001730
NewportPillgwenlly20123061,459221002770
NewportRogerstone20123,5044,605248002310
NewportShaftesbury20122871,206000251337
NewportStow Hill20127571,1256200790
NewportTredegar Park2012144512410000

Newport WestTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
NewportAllt-yr-yn6,4262,2571,533140001344294,493
NewportBettws (Newport)5,54901,69500002,1843,879
NewportCaerleon5,8701,5212,41317000004,104
NewportGaer6,3491,2132,8891330020304,438
NewportGraig (Newport)4,4861,6861,28216700003,135
NewportMalpas5,8381,2822,35600442004,080
NewportMarshfield4,5511,5178086660018903,180
NewportPillgwenlly5,3335042,4033640045603,727
NewportRogerstone7,3472,0952,7541480013805,135
NewportShaftesbury3,7133581,5040003134202,595
NewportStow Hill3,4629061,34674009402,420
NewportTredegar Park3,2214651,65413200002,251
 Total62,14513,80422,6371,99404421,5273,03343,437

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Newport WestEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
NewportAllt-yr-yn6,6592,3331,8679689495904,493
NewportBettws (Newport)5,7501,1782,10053913317203,879
NewportCaerleon6,0831,8312,01813258432104,103
NewportGaer6,5791,2772,8298880515804,437
NewportGraig (Newport)4,6491,7791,226813071403,137
NewportMalpas6,0501,4122,28814912324404,081
NewportMarshfield4,7161,77699821778169503,180
NewportPillgwenlly5,5269132,444117601018403,728
NewportRogerstone7,6132,3872,4929660178205,134
NewportShaftesbury3,8487461,485291314016402,595
NewportStow Hill3,5888541,3996615355002,419
NewportTredegar Park3,3385791,577341793502,251
 Total62,14517,06522,7239751,1004961,078043,437

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Newport West

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Newport West.

Newport WestPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
NewportAllt-yr-yn6,6592,3311,8669789505904,492
NewportBettws (Newport)5,7501,1762,09963913417203,878
NewportCaerleon6,0831,8292,01713358442104,102
NewportGaer6,5791,2752,8288980615804,436
NewportGraig (Newport)4,6491,7781,225823081403,137
NewportMalpas6,0501,4102,28715912334404,080
NewportMarshfield4,7161,77599721878179503,180
NewportPillgwenlly5,5269112,443118601118403,727
NewportRogerstone7,6132,3852,4919760198205,134
NewportShaftesbury3,8487451,484301314116402,595
NewportStow Hill3,5888531,3986715365002,419
NewportTredegar Park3,3385781,5763517103502,251
 Total62,14517,04622,7119871,1005091,078043,431

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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