Newry and Armagh: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Newry and Armagh: Overview

 Prediction: SF hold 

MP at 2017: Mickey Brady  (SF)
County/Area: Armagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 78,266
Turnout: 68.5%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
SF25,66647.9%
DUP13,17724.6%
SDLP9,05516.9%
UUP4,4258.3%
MIN1,2562.3%
NAT Majority12,48923.3%

EU Referendum vote:

Remain 63%
37% Leave

Newry and Armagh ranks #580 for "Leave" out of 650 seats.

Newry and Armagh: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Newry and Armagh: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Newry and Armagh

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Newry and Armagh at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Newry and Armagh. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Newry and ArmaghActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBlackwatertown201438553319142081624
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCathedral201437251518540078924
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDemesne201437551918641079524
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonHamiltonsbawn201474322142600189355
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKeady201437251518540078824
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland201468024039500204138
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall20143541595961410304269
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon20143331495611330286253
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMarkethill201481124146500206387
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonNavan201433646516737071221
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRichhill201482224547100208393
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonSeagahan201481624346700207390
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonTandragee201484125048200213402
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Mall201436650718240077623
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey201457415000486356
Newry, Mourne and DownBallybot201471516000604442
Newry, Mourne and DownBessbrook201421444865001,1980
Newry, Mourne and DownCamlough201416935351009440
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossmaglen201416434350009180
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly201464462000540396
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumalane201466482000564413
Newry, Mourne and DownFathom201456409000479351
Newry, Mourne and DownForkhill201416734850009310
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge20141617353900585173
Newry, Mourne and DownMullaghbane201418137855001,0120
Newry, Mourne and DownNewtownhamilton201416835151009380
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's201469501000586429
Newry, Mourne and DownWhitecross201417937454001,0000

Newry and ArmaghTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBlackwatertown3,5964806642385201,017302,481
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCathedral3,476464642231500983302,400
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDemesne3,502467647232510991302,418
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonHamiltonsbawn3,095821244471002093922,137
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKeady3,473463642230500982302,397
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland5341515388004531368
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall2,92739217666115603372982,020
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon90125205010961
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMarkethill3,376896266514002284272,331
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonNavan3,139419580208460888262,167
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRichhill3,421907270520002304342,361
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonSeagahan3,395901268515002284302,342
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonTandragee3,502929276532002354442,416
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Mall3,421456632227500967292,361
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey2,601785670006644861,795
Newry, Mourne and DownBallybot3,5301067700009016592,436
Newry, Mourne and DownBessbrook3,25825052376001,40002,249
Newry, Mourne and DownCamlough2,56819741260001,10301,772
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossmaglen2,49719240158001,07301,724
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly2,600795670006634861,795
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumalane3,295987190008416162,274
Newry, Mourne and DownFathom2,799846100007155241,933
Newry, Mourne and DownForkhill2,53419540758001,08801,748
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge29519885007021203
Newry, Mourne and DownMullaghbane2,75421244264001,18301,901
Newry, Mourne and DownNewtownhamilton2,55319641060001,09601,762
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's2,673805830006824991,844
Newry, Mourne and DownWhitecross2,72020943763001,16801,877
 Total77,6249,75312,3015,131460019,9975,93153,573

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Newry and ArmaghEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBlackwatertown3,626218489539001,22962,481
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCathedral3,505211473522001,18862,400
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDemesne3,531212476526001,19862,418
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonHamiltonsbawn3,12137218095300549832,137
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKeady3,502210473521001,18762,397
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland538693915900957369
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall2,9511781301,04300606632,020
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon9154320018261
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMarkethill3,4044071961,04000598902,331
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonNavan3,165190427471001,07362,167
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRichhill3,4494121991,05300606922,362
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonSeagahan3,4234091971,04400601912,342
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonTandragee3,5314212031,07800620942,416
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Mall3,449207465514001,16962,361
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey2,62335417338009021031,795
Newry, Mourne and DownBallybot3,55948567458001,2241402,437
Newry, Mourne and DownBessbrook3,285113385237001,51302,248
Newry, Mourne and DownCamlough2,58989303187001,19201,771
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossmaglen2,51887295182001,16001,724
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly2,62236417338009011031,795
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumalane3,32244529428001,1421302,273
Newry, Mourne and DownFathom2,82238449364009711111,933
Newry, Mourne and DownForkhill2,55588300184001,17601,748
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge2979653400914203
Newry, Mourne and DownMullaghbane2,77796325200001,27901,900
Newry, Mourne and DownNewtownhamilton2,57489302186001,18501,762
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's2,69536429347009261061,844
Newry, Mourne and DownWhitecross2,74295322198001,26301,878
 Total77,6244,4249,05613,1760025,6621,25553,573

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Newry and Armagh

This table shows the estimated 2017 general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Newry and Armagh.

Newry and ArmaghEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBlackwatertown3,626218489539001,22962,481
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCathedral3,505211473522001,18862,400
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDemesne3,531212476526001,19862,418
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonHamiltonsbawn3,12137218095300549832,137
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKeady3,502210473521001,18762,397
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland538693915900957369
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall2,9511781301,04300606632,020
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon9154320018261
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMarkethill3,4044071961,04000598902,331
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonNavan3,165190427471001,07362,167
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRichhill3,4494121991,05300606922,362
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonSeagahan3,4234091971,04400601912,342
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonTandragee3,5314212031,07800620942,416
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Mall3,449207465514001,16962,361
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey2,62335417338009021031,795
Newry, Mourne and DownBallybot3,55948567458001,2241402,437
Newry, Mourne and DownBessbrook3,285113385237001,51302,248
Newry, Mourne and DownCamlough2,58989303187001,19201,771
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossmaglen2,51887295182001,16001,724
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly2,62236417338009011031,795
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumalane3,32244529428001,1421302,273
Newry, Mourne and DownFathom2,82238449364009711111,933
Newry, Mourne and DownForkhill2,55588300184001,17601,748
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge2979653400914203
Newry, Mourne and DownMullaghbane2,77796325200001,27901,900
Newry, Mourne and DownNewtownhamilton2,57489302186001,18501,762
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's2,69536429347009261061,844
Newry, Mourne and DownWhitecross2,74295322198001,26301,878
 Total77,6244,4249,05613,1760025,6621,25553,573

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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