Norfolk Mid: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Norfolk Mid: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: George Freeman  (CON)
County/Area: Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 80,026
Turnout: 69.6%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON32,82859.0%55.9%
LAB16,74230.1%29.1%
LIB2,8485.1%5.2%
UKIP2,0923.8%6.6%
Green1,1582.1%3.2%
CON Majority16,08628.9%Pred Maj 26.9%
Chance of
winning
CON
89%
LAB
11%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%

Norfolk Mid : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Norfolk Mid constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right8° Right
National Position14° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %60%57%52%
British Identity25%27%29%
Good Health43%47%48%
UK Born94%89%88%
Good Education33%37%39%
Good Job46%53%51%
High SEC49%53%51%
Average Age52.349.448.5
ABC1 Class49%55%53%

Norfolk Mid ranks #164 for "Leave", #96 for "Right" and #64 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Norfolk Mid: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Norfolk Mid: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Norfolk Mid

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Norfolk Mid at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Norfolk Mid. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Norfolk MidActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
BrecklandAll Saints and Wayland20153,642001,00800
BrecklandAshill2015755004952370
BrecklandAttleborough Burgh and Haverscroft20152,420628000618
BrecklandAttleborough Queens and Besthorpe20154,41072609000702
BrecklandDereham Neatherd20154,2541,28508447080
BrecklandDereham Toftwood20152,0631,12007826740
BrecklandDereham Withburga20151,9301,654004780
BrecklandHermitage20151,0160047200
BrecklandLaunditch2015-100000
BrecklandLincoln20153,1170001,0100
BrecklandMattishall20153,0701,488068000
BrecklandNecton20158825670000
BrecklandSaham Toney20152,114001,2784110
BrecklandShipdham-with-Scarning20152,647766088500
BrecklandThe Buckenhams and Banham20151,2724320000
BrecklandUpper Wensum20153,777001,18500
BrecklandWatton20153,53770502,21701,413
South NorfolkAbbey2015857464258000
South NorfolkCromwells20157130676000
South NorfolkHingham and Deopham20151,049286326000
South NorfolkNorthfields2015934361002020
South NorfolkRustens20151,1180006510
South NorfolkTown20151,1210006150
South NorfolkWicklewood201586902412302430

Norfolk MidTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BrecklandAll Saints and Wayland3,1561,78800495002,283
BrecklandAshill1,4525330035016701,050
BrecklandAttleborough Burgh and Haverscroft3,7121,7724600004532,685
BrecklandAttleborough Queens and Besthorpe4,9782,356388048103753,600
BrecklandDereham Neatherd5,4132,348709046639103,914
BrecklandDereham Toftwood4,5051,449787054947303,258
BrecklandDereham Withburga4,4191,5181,3010037603,195
BrecklandHermitage2,0961,03500481001,516
BrecklandLaunditch1,9661,422000001,422
BrecklandLincoln4,1062,24300072702,970
BrecklandMattishall3,9981,6958210375002,891
BrecklandNecton1,85981852600001,344
BrecklandSaham Toney3,6671,4740089128702,652
BrecklandShipdham-with-Scarning4,1681,8565370621003,014
BrecklandThe Buckenhams and Banham1,3277162430000959
BrecklandUpper Wensum4,7122,59400814003,408
BrecklandWatton5,5561,80536001,13207214,018
South NorfolkAbbey2,1878584652580001,581
South NorfolkCromwells2,04375807190001,477
South NorfolkHingham and Deopham2,2311,0192783170001,614
South NorfolkNorthfields2,1929893820021401,585
South NorfolkRustens2,16098700057501,562
South NorfolkTown2,5171,17500064501,820
South NorfolkWicklewood2,5541,014028126828401,847
 Total76,97434,2227,2571,5756,9234,1391,54955,665

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Norfolk MidEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BrecklandAll Saints and Wayland3,2811,64645560952702,283
BrecklandAshill1,510578282421133501,050
BrecklandAttleborough Burgh and Haverscroft3,8591,57991693841402,686
BrecklandAttleborough Queens and Besthorpe5,1752,2141,124951452203,600
BrecklandDereham Neatherd5,6282,2721,2901271438203,914
BrecklandDereham Toftwood4,6841,6281,22313017110503,257
BrecklandDereham Withburga4,5941,4871,447871007403,195
BrecklandHermitage2,1791,03232365811401,515
BrecklandLaunditch2,0441,14820132281201,421
BrecklandLincoln4,2691,9996251456613502,970
BrecklandMattishall4,1571,6981,01677732702,891
BrecklandNecton1,9338224562338401,343
BrecklandSaham Toney3,8121,585754801765702,652
BrecklandShipdham-with-Scarning4,3331,6961,0631031331803,013
BrecklandThe Buckenhams and Banham1,380637268296190959
BrecklandUpper Wensum4,8992,2677631741673803,409
BrecklandWatton5,7762,0231,4851763191404,017
South NorfolkAbbey2,274805551181113301,581
South NorfolkCromwells2,12477229238542501,478
South NorfolkHingham and Deopham2,3191,000381178163801,613
South NorfolkNorthfields2,27987554177355701,585
South NorfolkRustens2,2468664551081911501,563
South NorfolkTown2,6171,0744841192112301,821
South NorfolkWicklewood2,6551,121348262486901,848
 Total76,97432,82416,7432,8482,0921,157055,665

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Norfolk Mid

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Norfolk Mid.

Norfolk MidPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BrecklandAll Saints and Wayland3,2811,577432611615202,283
BrecklandAshill1,510546271431434701,050
BrecklandAttleborough Burgh and Haverscroft3,8591,498889941614402,686
BrecklandAttleborough Queens and Besthorpe5,1752,1051,087972496203,600
BrecklandDereham Neatherd5,6282,1541,25012925612603,915
BrecklandDereham Toftwood4,6841,5301,19013226514103,258
BrecklandDereham Withburga4,5941,3901,4148919211003,195
BrecklandHermitage2,179986307661253101,515
BrecklandLaunditch2,0441,10519133662701,422
BrecklandLincoln4,2691,90959514715216802,971
BrecklandMattishall4,1571,611986791565902,891
BrecklandNecton1,93378144224771901,343
BrecklandSaham Toney3,8121,505727812528702,652
BrecklandShipdham-with-Scarning4,3331,6051,0321052205203,014
BrecklandThe Buckenhams and Banham1,3806082583034300960
BrecklandUpper Wensum4,8992,1647281762657603,409
BrecklandWatton5,7761,9021,4441784355904,018
South NorfolkAbbey2,274757535182575101,582
South NorfolkCromwells2,124727277386464101,477
South NorfolkHingham and Deopham2,319951364179625601,612
South NorfolkNorthfields2,27982752578817501,586
South NorfolkRustens2,2468194391096413201,563
South NorfolkTown2,6171,0194651207314301,820
South NorfolkWicklewood2,6551,0653302631008901,847
 Total76,97431,14116,1782,8813,6921,777055,669

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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