Norfolk North: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Norfolk North: Overview

 Prediction: LIB hold 

MP at 2017: Norman Lamb  (LIB)
County/Area: Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 69,263
Turnout: 75.3%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LIB25,26048.4%48.4%
CON21,74841.7%37.9%
LAB5,1809.9%10.3%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
Green00.0%0.5%
OTH00.0%0.5%
LIB Majority3,5126.7%Pred Maj 10.5%
Chance of
winning
LIB
59%
CON
38%
LAB
3%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Norfolk North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Norfolk North constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerLIBCONCON
Economic Position1° Right8° Right
National Position7° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %59%57%52%
British Identity24%27%29%
Good Health39%47%48%
UK Born96%89%88%
Good Education33%37%39%
Good Job44%53%51%
High SEC47%53%51%
Average Age56.149.448.5
ABC1 Class46%55%53%

Norfolk North ranks #184 for "Leave", #308 for "Right" and #221 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Norfolk North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Norfolk North: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Norfolk North

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Norfolk North at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Norfolk North. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Norfolk NorthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
North NorfolkBriston2015557132342245810
North NorfolkChaucer20155201174412671100
North NorfolkCorpusty20155563091843241160
North NorfolkCromer Town20151,2585881,36401830
North NorfolkErpingham201567820735602660
North NorfolkGaunt2015467173464089310
North NorfolkGlaven Valley201543878634148530
North NorfolkHappisburgh201556915863101190
North NorfolkHigh Heath201545311047201620
North NorfolkHolt20158865691,3117141820
North NorfolkHoveton20157911842240990
North NorfolkMundesley20151,7605828020237420
North NorfolkNorth Walsham East20158814621,4907454040
North NorfolkNorth Walsham North20158345711,79702270
North NorfolkNorth Walsham West20158998861,4214571450
North NorfolkPoppyland201578620534301550
North NorfolkPriory20151,5917351,37103260
North NorfolkRoughton201567819436001470
North NorfolkScottow201558221848001000
North NorfolkSheringham North20151,1685691,26003600
North NorfolkSheringham South20151,8183771,4523782890
North NorfolkSt Benet20154821297150910
North NorfolkStalham and Sutton20151,5047711,55102100
North NorfolkSuffield Park20151,4288491,0164953260
North NorfolkThe Runtons20155541285750980
North NorfolkWaterside20151,7273701,0758983000
North NorfolkWaxham201552515946701720
North NorfolkWorstead201559717547501800

Norfolk NorthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
North NorfolkBriston1,9886181463792729001,505
North NorfolkChaucer1,83149511142025410501,385
North NorfolkCorpusty1,89253529717731211201,433
North NorfolkCromer Town3,003843394914012302,274
North NorfolkErpingham1,900647198340025401,439
North NorfolkGaunt1,9974701744670893121,512
North NorfolkGlaven Valley1,664408735911384901,259
North NorfolkHappisburgh1,941566157628011801,469
North NorfolkHigh Heath1,544442107461015801,168
North NorfolkHolt3,10256836584045811702,348
North NorfolkHoveton1,57972816920609101,194
North NorfolkMundesley3,4471,20839955001632882,608
North NorfolkNorth Walsham East3,41957230096848426302,587
North NorfolkNorth Walsham North3,4196294311,356017102,587
North NorfolkNorth Walsham West3,46061860997731410002,618
North NorfolkPoppyland1,942776202339015301,470
North NorfolkPriory3,184953440821019502,409
North NorfolkRoughton1,788665190353014401,352
North NorfolkScottow2,417771289636013301,829
North NorfolkSheringham North2,912767374827023602,204
North NorfolkSheringham South3,08298320478520415602,332
North NorfolkSt Benet1,73944812066408501,317
North NorfolkStalham and Sutton3,5109905071,021013802,656
North NorfolkSuffield Park3,29886651561630019802,495
North NorfolkThe Runtons1,75554312556409601,328
North NorfolkWaterside3,4241,02421963753217802,590
North NorfolkWaxham1,781535162476017501,348
North NorfolkWorstead1,940614180489018501,468
 Total68,95819,2827,45717,5023,2684,07560052,184

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Norfolk NorthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
North NorfolkBriston1,9976711506840001,505
North NorfolkChaucer1,839625646970001,386
North NorfolkCorpusty1,9006421396510001,432
North NorfolkCromer Town3,0168453391,0890002,273
North NorfolkErpingham1,9086541276570001,438
North NorfolkGaunt2,006647957710001,513
North NorfolkGlaven Valley1,671499537070001,259
North NorfolkHappisburgh1,950666827210001,469
North NorfolkHigh Heath1,551517795730001,169
North NorfolkHolt3,1168092301,3090002,348
North NorfolkHoveton1,5866661124160001,194
North NorfolkMundesley3,4621,1912691,1490002,609
North NorfolkNorth Walsham East3,4348392931,4550002,587
North NorfolkNorth Walsham North3,4348224031,3620002,587
North NorfolkNorth Walsham West3,4758834291,3060002,618
North NorfolkPoppyland1,9517191106410001,470
North NorfolkPriory3,1981,0562121,1410002,409
North NorfolkRoughton1,7966611355570001,353
North NorfolkScottow2,4288091968240001,829
North NorfolkSheringham North2,9258122351,1570002,204
North NorfolkSheringham South3,0961,0541291,1490002,332
North NorfolkSt Benet1,747542786960001,316
North NorfolkStalham and Sutton3,5261,0203811,2550002,656
North NorfolkSuffield Park3,3139373481,2110002,496
North NorfolkThe Runtons1,763603886370001,328
North NorfolkWaterside3,4391,2301791,1810002,590
North NorfolkWaxham1,789625976260001,348
North NorfolkWorstead1,9497011276390001,467
 Total68,95821,7455,17925,26100052,184

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Norfolk North

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Norfolk North.

Norfolk NorthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
North NorfolkBriston1,99761515668436871,506
North NorfolkChaucer1,8395736969733761,385
North NorfolkCorpusty1,90058814565134771,432
North NorfolkCromer Town3,0167603481,0895412112,274
North NorfolkErpingham1,90860013365734771,438
North NorfolkGaunt2,00659010177136871,513
North NorfolkGlaven Valley1,6714525870730661,259
North NorfolkHappisburgh1,9506118872135871,470
North NorfolkHigh Heath1,5514738457328651,169
North NorfolkHolt3,1167212391,3095612112,348
North NorfolkHoveton1,58662111741628661,194
North NorfolkMundesley3,4621,0932791,1496213122,608
North NorfolkNorth Walsham East3,4347423031,4556113122,586
North NorfolkNorth Walsham North3,4347254131,3626113122,586
North NorfolkNorth Walsham West3,4757854391,3066213122,617
North NorfolkPoppyland1,95166411664135871,471
North NorfolkPriory3,1989662211,1415712112,408
North NorfolkRoughton1,79661014055732761,352
North NorfolkScottow2,42874120382443981,828
North NorfolkSheringham North2,9257302441,1575211102,204
North NorfolkSheringham South3,0969671381,1495512112,332
North NorfolkSt Benet1,7474938369631761,316
North NorfolkStalham and Sutton3,5269213911,2556314122,656
North NorfolkSuffield Park3,3138443581,2115913122,497
North NorfolkThe Runtons1,7635539363731761,327
North NorfolkWaterside3,4391,1331891,1816113122,589
North NorfolkWaxham1,78957510262632761,348
North NorfolkWorstead1,94964613363935871,468
 Total68,95819,7925,38325,2611,23626724252,181

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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