Norfolk North West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Norfolk North West: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Henry Bellingham  (CON)
County/Area: Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 72,062
Turnout: 67.7%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON29,40860.2%56.5%
LAB15,62032.0%32.4%
UKIP1,5393.2%5.5%
LIB1,3932.9%2.9%
Green8511.7%2.3%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority13,78828.2%Pred Maj 24.1%
Chance of
winning
CON
85%
LAB
15%
UKIP
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Norfolk North West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Norfolk North West constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right8° Right
National Position16° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %65%57%52%
British Identity23%27%29%
Good Health40%47%48%
UK Born92%89%88%
Good Education30%37%39%
Good Job41%53%51%
High SEC43%53%51%
Average Age52.549.448.5
ABC1 Class42%55%53%

Norfolk North West ranks #69 for "Leave", #111 for "Right" and #32 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Norfolk North West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Norfolk North West: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Norfolk North West

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Norfolk North West at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Norfolk North West. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Norfolk North WestActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
King's Lynn and West NorfolkBrancaster20155370000300
King's Lynn and West NorfolkBurnham20156540276000
King's Lynn and West NorfolkClenchwarton20156540000597
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDersingham20152,693091385500
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDocking20157612930000
King's Lynn and West NorfolkFairstead20151,0621,480059900
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGayton2015755003981650
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGaywood Chase20151,2151,477064900
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGaywood North Bank20153,7042,72901,02101,111
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGrimston2015572002954540
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHeacham20153,1301,4150000
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHunstanton20153,1870070003,429
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Lynn20157821,527068500
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Wootton2015796294032000
King's Lynn and West NorfolkOld Gaywood201533827802391410
King's Lynn and West NorfolkPriory20155688160000
King's Lynn and West NorfolkRudham20158000042800
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSnettisham20152,8911,1100000
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth Wootton20153,2550001,3090
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth and West Lynn20151,3821,6350000
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSpellowfields20152,039150075600
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSpringwood201544630016021000
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSt Margarets with St Nicholas20151,2451,077006520
King's Lynn and West NorfolkValley Hill20154660000899
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWalpole20156680050100
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWest Winch20152,591001,73600

Norfolk North WestTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
King's Lynn and West NorfolkBrancaster9844260000238664
King's Lynn and West NorfolkBurnham1,3066190261000880
King's Lynn and West NorfolkClenchwarton1,61456900005191,088
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDersingham3,5371,4400488457002,385
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDocking1,4767182770000995
King's Lynn and West NorfolkFairstead4,9381,1261,5690635003,330
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGayton1,7076590034814401,151
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGaywood Chase3,8439421,1450503002,590
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGaywood North Bank5,8201,6971,250046805093,924
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGrimston1,7815200026841301,201
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHeacham3,6211,68176000002,441
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHunstanton4,1331,2140026701,3062,787
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Lynn4,6298151,5920714003,121
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Wootton1,8707122630286001,261
King's Lynn and West NorfolkOld Gaywood1,46033427502361390984
King's Lynn and West NorfolkPriory1,86951774300001,260
King's Lynn and West NorfolkRudham1,59570100375001,076
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSnettisham3,0731,49757500002,072
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth Wootton3,4301,64900066302,312
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth and West Lynn3,8061,1751,39100002,566
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSpellowfields3,5921,6771230622002,422
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSpringwood1,551418281150197001,046
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSt Margarets with St Nicholas3,6821,0398990054402,482
King's Lynn and West NorfolkValley Hill1,72039600007641,160
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWalpole1,75167500506001,181
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWest Winch3,6111,45800977002,435
 Total72,39924,67411,1438996,8591,9033,33648,814

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Norfolk North WestEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
King's Lynn and West NorfolkBrancaster97952710923040663
King's Lynn and West NorfolkBurnham1,300633631681150880
King's Lynn and West NorfolkClenchwarton1,6067512752828501,087
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDersingham3,5211,582385320861202,385
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDocking1,469709247222150995
King's Lynn and West NorfolkFairstead4,9151,3821,787331032403,329
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGayton1,69983520713603501,150
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGaywood Chase3,8251,1751,26022914302,591
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGaywood North Bank5,7932,2041,525531152703,924
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGrimston1,77380121846389701,200
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHeacham3,6041,64366065551802,441
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHunstanton4,1141,967620102811802,788
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Lynn4,6071,1251,754172002303,119
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Wootton1,8618763301239301,260
King's Lynn and West NorfolkOld Gaywood1,4535163671541440983
King's Lynn and West NorfolkPriory1,860684538825601,261
King's Lynn and West NorfolkRudham1,5888001814543701,076
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSnettisham3,0591,44052778111702,073
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth Wootton3,4141,749337491815902,312
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth and West Lynn3,7881,1641,28422692702,566
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSpellowfields3,5751,758503191093302,422
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSpringwood1,54451737412424701,046
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSt Margarets with St Nicholas3,6651,1521,071126318502,483
King's Lynn and West NorfolkValley Hill1,7127923083614901,159
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWalpole1,74381526211821201,182
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWest Winch3,5941,81042849141702,435
 Total72,39929,40715,6201,3921,539852048,814

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Norfolk North West

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Norfolk North West.

Norfolk North WestPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
King's Lynn and West NorfolkBrancaster979502112231673663
King's Lynn and West NorfolkBurnham1,3006006616822204880
King's Lynn and West NorfolkClenchwarton1,60671027928541151,087
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDersingham3,5211,49339432014224112,384
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDocking1,4696722512226205996
King's Lynn and West NorfolkFairstead4,9151,2571,8003318241153,328
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGayton1,69979221113874151,149
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGaywood Chase3,8251,0781,2702215256122,590
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGaywood North Bank5,7932,0571,5405320847183,923
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGrimston1,773756223466610361,200
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHeacham3,6041,5526706511331112,442
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHunstanton4,1141,86363110214732132,788
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Lynn4,6071,0081,7661727439153,119
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Wootton1,86182933512691061,261
King's Lynn and West NorfolkOld Gaywood1,4534793711564495983
King's Lynn and West NorfolkPriory1,8606375438551361,262
King's Lynn and West NorfolkRudham1,58876018545681351,076
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSnettisham3,0591,362535786028102,073
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth Wootton3,4141,6633464973171112,313
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth and West Lynn3,7881,0681,2942213040122,566
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSpellowfields3,5751,6675121916646112,421
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSpringwood1,544478378124491251,046
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSt Margarets with St Nicholas3,6651,0591,08112122198122,484
King's Lynn and West NorfolkValley Hill1,71274931336411551,159
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWalpole1,743771267111101851,182
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWest Winch3,5941,7194374919920112,435
 Total72,39927,58115,8101,3922,6951,10522748,810

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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