Norfolk South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Norfolk South: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Richard Bacon  (CON)
County/Area: Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 83,056
Turnout: 73.6%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON35,58058.2%55.2%
LAB18,90230.9%29.9%
LIB5,0748.3%8.4%
Green1,5552.5%3.7%
UKIP00.0%2.9%
CON Majority16,67827.3%Pred Maj 25.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
88%
LAB
12%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%

Norfolk South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Norfolk South constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position8° Right8° Right
National Position7° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %52%57%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born95%89%88%
Good Education39%37%39%
Good Job53%53%51%
High SEC55%53%51%
Average Age52.349.448.5
ABC1 Class56%55%53%

Norfolk South ranks #356 for "Leave", #137 for "Right" and #210 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Norfolk South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Norfolk South: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Norfolk South

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Norfolk South at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Norfolk South. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Norfolk SouthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
South NorfolkBeck Vale201576719816901720
South NorfolkBressingham and Burston201586328603262120
South NorfolkBrooke20151,104278233000
South NorfolkBunwell201590336214122500
South NorfolkChedgrave and Thurton20156882991292430144
South NorfolkCringleford20153,732937981000
South NorfolkDickleburgh20151,04322310001560
South NorfolkDiss20155,2092,1151,39806460
South NorfolkDitchingham and Broome201546417255522800
South NorfolkEarsham2015521248720000
South NorfolkEaston201594320517923900
South NorfolkForncett201570218355521300
South NorfolkGillingham201579029723829900
South NorfolkHarleston20152,6071,052509000
South NorfolkHempnall20151,1553760000
South NorfolkHethersett20153,5491,633648000
South NorfolkLoddon201581032214221000
South NorfolkMulbarton20153,1521,15646204080
South NorfolkNewton Flotman201572231618825400
South NorfolkOld Costessey20151,6061,5252,10694700
South NorfolkPoringland with the Framinghams20153,670790753000
South NorfolkRockland2015994425329000
South NorfolkRoydon2015869283127000
South NorfolkScole201590019411001500
South NorfolkStoke Holy Cross201561018275701840
South NorfolkStratton20152,3641,0143717503430
South NorfolkTasburgh2015921318257000
South NorfolkThurlton2015948367316000

Norfolk SouthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
South NorfolkBeck Vale1,771806208178018101,373
South NorfolkBressingham and Burston2,268899298034022101,758
South NorfolkBrooke2,1421,1342862390001,659
South NorfolkBunwell2,212949380148236001,713
South NorfolkChedgrave and Thurton2,20778334014727601641,710
South NorfolkCringleford4,0992,0975275510003,175
South NorfolkDickleburgh2,2621,201257115018001,753
South NorfolkDiss6,0732,6161,062702032404,704
South NorfolkDitchingham and Broome1,883477177571234001,459
South NorfolkEarsham1,9705342547380001,526
South NorfolkEaston2,1941,023222194259001,698
South NorfolkForncett2,170714186564217001,681
South NorfolkGillingham2,308870327262329001,788
South NorfolkHarleston3,7271,8067293530002,888
South NorfolkHempnall2,0541,20039100001,591
South NorfolkHethersett4,5532,1479883920003,527
South NorfolkLoddon2,099888353156230001,627
South NorfolkMulbarton4,1681,965721288025403,228
South NorfolkNewton Flotman2,134806353210284001,653
South NorfolkOld Costessey5,7491,1571,0981,517682004,454
South NorfolkPoringland with the Framinghams3,8592,1054534320002,990
South NorfolkRockland2,2771,0034293320001,764
South NorfolkRoydon1,9641,0343371510001,522
South NorfolkScole1,884970209119016201,460
South NorfolkStoke Holy Cross2,302628187779018901,783
South NorfolkStratton4,4351,67771926353224303,434
South NorfolkTasburgh1,9309203182570001,495
South NorfolkThurlton2,1929873823290001,698
 Total78,88633,39612,1919,9873,6191,75416461,111

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Norfolk SouthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
South NorfolkBeck Vale1,86587929388011301,373
South NorfolkBressingham and Burston2,3881,07252741011701,757
South NorfolkBrooke2,2551,10240414301001,659
South NorfolkBunwell2,3291,1185116202301,714
South NorfolkChedgrave and Thurton2,32499757812301201,710
South NorfolkCringleford4,3161,95784633304103,177
South NorfolkDickleburgh2,3821,15041572011601,753
South NorfolkDiss6,3942,6941,475333020204,704
South NorfolkDitchingham and Broome1,98371053019002801,458
South NorfolkEarsham2,07477950123501101,526
South NorfolkEaston2,3101,09347610302601,698
South NorfolkForncett2,2859804981930901,680
South NorfolkGillingham2,43095164714804201,788
South NorfolkHarleston3,9241,70286727903902,887
South NorfolkHempnall2,1631,1293755403301,591
South NorfolkHethersett4,7942,0571,13128405503,527
South NorfolkLoddon2,21093654412102501,626
South NorfolkMulbarton4,3881,967936185014003,228
South NorfolkNewton Flotman2,24793157413801001,653
South NorfolkOld Costessey6,0531,8072,01757805204,454
South NorfolkPoringland with the Framinghams4,0631,94875226702202,989
South NorfolkRockland2,3971,00256017003101,763
South NorfolkRoydon2,068973456890401,522
South NorfolkScole1,9849753147609401,459
South NorfolkStoke Holy Cross2,424844522300011701,783
South NorfolkStratton4,6691,9061,198187014303,434
South NorfolkTasburgh2,03288444814601701,495
South NorfolkThurlton2,3081,03750413502201,698
 Total78,88635,58018,8995,07301,554061,111

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Norfolk South

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Norfolk South.

Norfolk SouthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
South NorfolkBeck Vale1,865837279893912801,372
South NorfolkBressingham and Burston2,3881,019509425013701,757
South NorfolkBrooke2,2551,052387144482801,659
South NorfolkBunwell2,3291,06649463494201,714
South NorfolkChedgrave and Thurton2,324945561124493101,710
South NorfolkCringleford4,3161,861814335917603,177
South NorfolkDickleburgh2,3821,097397735013501,752
South NorfolkDiss6,3942,5521,42733513525404,703
South NorfolkDitchingham and Broome1,983666515191424401,458
South NorfolkEarsham2,074733486236442801,527
South NorfolkEaston2,3101,042459104494501,699
South NorfolkForncett2,285929481194482801,680
South NorfolkGillingham2,430897629149516201,788
South NorfolkHarleston3,9241,615838281837102,888
South NorfolkHempnall2,1631,08135955465101,592
South NorfolkHethersett4,7941,9501,0952861019403,526
South NorfolkLoddon2,210887528122474301,627
South NorfolkMulbarton4,3881,8699031879317603,228
South NorfolkNewton Flotman2,247881557139472801,652
South NorfolkOld Costessey6,0531,6721,97258012810104,453
South NorfolkPoringland with the Framinghams4,0631,858722269865502,990
South NorfolkRockland2,397949542171515101,764
South NorfolkRoydon2,06892744190442101,523
South NorfolkScole1,984931299774211001,459
South NorfolkStoke Holy Cross2,4247905043015113701,783
South NorfolkStratton4,6691,8021,1631899918103,434
South NorfolkTasburgh2,032839433147433401,496
South NorfolkThurlton2,308986487136494101,699
 Total78,88633,73318,2815,1091,7552,232061,110

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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