Norfolk South West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Norfolk South West: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Elizabeth Truss  (CON)
County/Area: Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 77,874
Turnout: 67.3%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON32,89462.8%59.7%
LAB14,58227.8%26.8%
UKIP2,5754.9%7.8%
LIB2,3654.5%4.6%
Green00.0%1.1%
CON Majority18,31234.9%Pred Maj 32.9%
Chance of
winning
CON
94%
LAB
6%
UKIP
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%

Norfolk South West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Norfolk South West constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position13° Right8° Right
National Position20° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %67%57%52%
British Identity23%27%29%
Good Health42%47%48%
UK Born90%89%88%
Good Education29%37%39%
Good Job43%53%51%
High SEC44%53%51%
Average Age51.249.448.5
ABC1 Class44%55%53%

Norfolk South West ranks #43 for "Leave", #61 for "Right" and #10 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Norfolk South West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Norfolk South West: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Norfolk South West

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Norfolk South West at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Norfolk South West. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Norfolk South WestActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
BrecklandAll Saints and Wayland20153,642001,00800
BrecklandAshill2015755004952370
BrecklandBedingfield2015-100000
BrecklandForest20151,420485006020
BrecklandGuiltcross20151,2425300000
BrecklandHarling and Heathlands2015-100000
BrecklandLaunditch2015-100000
BrecklandNar Valley20158160053200
BrecklandSwaffham2015-300000
BrecklandThe Buckenhams and Banham20151,2724320000
BrecklandThetford Boudica20151,45591221975000
BrecklandThetford Burrell20151,0041,585082800
BrecklandThetford Castle20151,63291925281100
BrecklandThetford Priory20158771,457098100
King's Lynn and West NorfolkAirfield20152,099001,2374140
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDenton20155,0211,66101,27400
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDownham Old Town201556225802520164
King's Lynn and West NorfolkEast Downham20158654900000
King's Lynn and West NorfolkEmneth with Outwell20152,4340099900
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHilgay with Denver2015-100000
King's Lynn and West NorfolkMershe Lande20157520050500
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Downham2015723338001630
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth Downham2015788276038300
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSt Lawrence2015-100000
King's Lynn and West NorfolkUpwell and Delph20152,474001,00900
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWalton2015-100000
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWatlington201550733210337300
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWiggenhall2015529003702290
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWimbotsham with Fincham2015-100000
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWissey2015737268033400

Norfolk South WestTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BrecklandAll Saints and Wayland2,1601,15200319001,471
BrecklandAshill55219100125600376
BrecklandBedingfield2,2261,516000001,516
BrecklandForest2,2418642950036601,525
BrecklandGuiltcross2,1831,04244500001,487
BrecklandHarling and Heathlands2,2431,527000001,527
BrecklandLaunditch26180000018
BrecklandNar Valley1,86276800500001,268
BrecklandSwaffham5,3933,673000003,673
BrecklandThe Buckenhams and Banham1,1035611900000751
BrecklandThetford Boudica3,7731,121702169578002,570
BrecklandThetford Burrell4,4218851,3970730003,012
BrecklandThetford Castle4,5551,401789216696003,102
BrecklandThetford Priory5,3649661,60501,081003,652
King's Lynn and West NorfolkAirfield4,1041,5640092230902,795
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDenton5,8942,5338380643004,014
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDownham Old Town1,964608279027301771,337
King's Lynn and West NorfolkEast Downham2,3101,00456900001,573
King's Lynn and West NorfolkEmneth with Outwell3,5261,70200699002,401
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHilgay with Denver1,7801,212000001,212
King's Lynn and West NorfolkMershe Lande1,82974500500001,245
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Downham1,5396192890014001,048
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth Downham1,6145992100291001,100
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSt Lawrence1,8691,273000001,273
King's Lynn and West NorfolkUpwell and Delph3,5341,70900697002,406
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWalton1,9651,338000001,338
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWatlington1,82547931497353001,243
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWiggenhall1,5604980034821601,062
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWimbotsham with Fincham1,8601,267000001,267
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWissey1,6956352310288001,154
 Total76,97033,4708,1534829,0431,09117752,416

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Norfolk South WestEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BrecklandAll Saints and Wayland2,1851,1222306158001,471
BrecklandAshill55822189273900376
BrecklandBedingfield2,2521,2441855631001,516
BrecklandForest2,2679145256126001,526
BrecklandGuiltcross2,2091,0633852811001,487
BrecklandHarling and Heathlands2,2691,2681875121001,527
BrecklandLaunditch26152000017
BrecklandNar Valley1,88481425410199001,268
BrecklandSwaffham5,4562,94945619375003,673
BrecklandThe Buckenhams and Banham1,11653618128500750
BrecklandThetford Boudica3,8171,284946167173002,570
BrecklandThetford Burrell4,4731,1751,543112181003,011
BrecklandThetford Castle4,6081,6091,088223182003,102
BrecklandThetford Priory5,4271,3021,937135278003,652
King's Lynn and West NorfolkAirfield4,1521,813575209198002,795
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDenton5,9632,5301,168152163004,013
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDownham Old Town1,9876934947377001,337
King's Lynn and West NorfolkEast Downham2,3379675275128001,573
King's Lynn and West NorfolkEmneth with Outwell3,5671,65249774178002,401
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHilgay with Denver1,8011,0351451319001,212
King's Lynn and West NorfolkMershe Lande1,85075431452126001,246
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Downham1,5576373164649001,048
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth Downham1,63365027266111001,099
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSt Lawrence1,8919822431730001,272
King's Lynn and West NorfolkUpwell and Delph3,5761,59157793145002,406
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWalton1,9881,104207621001,338
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWatlington1,84663743111165001,244
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWiggenhall1,5785773337181001,062
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWimbotsham with Fincham1,8821,0621503322001,267
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWissey1,7156923245583001,154
 Total76,97032,89214,5812,3652,5750052,416

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Norfolk South West

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Norfolk South West.

Norfolk South WestPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BrecklandAll Saints and Wayland2,1851,07821762991601,472
BrecklandAshill55821085275040376
BrecklandBedingfield2,2521,19817557711501,516
BrecklandForest2,26786850862711701,526
BrecklandGuiltcross2,2091,01836929551701,488
BrecklandHarling and Heathlands2,2691,22217752611601,528
BrecklandLaunditch26142000016
BrecklandNar Valley1,8847762401021361401,268
BrecklandSwaffham5,4562,8384311951723803,674
BrecklandThe Buckenhams and Banham1,116513173282790750
BrecklandThetford Boudica3,8171,2069181682482902,569
BrecklandThetford Burrell4,4731,0841,5101142693403,011
BrecklandThetford Castle4,6081,5151,0542252733503,102
BrecklandThetford Priory5,4271,1921,8971373854203,653
King's Lynn and West NorfolkAirfield4,1521,7285442102803202,794
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDenton5,9632,4091,1241542814604,014
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDownham Old Town1,987653479741161501,337
King's Lynn and West NorfolkEast Downham2,33791951052741801,573
King's Lynn and West NorfolkEmneth with Outwell3,5671,579471752492702,401
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHilgay with Denver1,80199813714511201,212
King's Lynn and West NorfolkMershe Lande1,850716300531631401,246
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Downham1,55760530447801201,048
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth Downham1,633617260671431201,099
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSt Lawrence1,89194423018671401,273
King's Lynn and West NorfolkUpwell and Delph3,5761,518550942162702,405
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWalton1,9881,0641967581401,339
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWatlington1,8465994171121021401,244
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWiggenhall1,578545321721121201,062
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWimbotsham with Fincham1,8821,02414234551301,268
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWissey1,715657311561171301,154
 Total76,97031,30714,0522,3974,081581052,418

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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