Northampton North: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Northampton North: Overview

 Prediction: LAB gain from CON 

MP at 2017: Michael Ellis  (CON)
County/Area: Northamptonshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 58,183
Turnout: 69.4%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON19,06547.2%44.2%
LAB18,25845.2%44.2%
UKIP1,4043.5%6.3%
LIB1,0152.5%2.6%
Green6361.6%2.7%
CON Majority8072.0%Pred Maj 0.0%
Chance of
winning
CON
50%
LAB
50%
UKIP
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%

Northampton North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Northampton North constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position4° Right3° Right
National Position10° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %60%59%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health44%45%48%
UK Born85%91%88%
Good Education34%36%39%
Good Job46%48%51%
High SEC44%47%51%
Average Age47.249.148.5
ABC1 Class48%50%53%

Northampton North ranks #150 for "Leave", #250 for "Right" and #118 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Northampton North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Northampton North: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Northampton North

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Northampton North at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Northampton North. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Northampton NorthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
NorthamptonAbington20152,5492,93352407190
NorthamptonBoothville20151,458699260000
NorthamptonBrookside201551197913040300
NorthamptonEastfield2015722794704571050
NorthamptonHeadlands20157931,124261000
NorthamptonKingsley2015726876285423063
NorthamptonKingsthorpe20157764109244491010
NorthamptonObelisk2015532400864540139
NorthamptonParklands20151,52754016135900
NorthamptonPhippsville20157996892253072380
NorthamptonRectory Farm201581463114250500
NorthamptonSemilong201530164248924700
NorthamptonSpring Park201595465025169114213
NorthamptonSt David's201547870810144800
NorthamptonSunnyside20151,007546358000
NorthamptonTalavera20151,3402,4742,25295500
NorthamptonTrinity20153705153662492340
NorthamptonWestone20151,318722315000

Northampton NorthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
NorthamptonAbington6,0171,5571,791320043904,107
NorthamptonBoothville2,7601,1375452030001,885
NorthamptonBrookside3,7626491,243165512002,569
NorthamptonEastfield3,4888008807850711602,381
NorthamptonHeadlands3,4558591,2172830002,359
NorthamptonKingsley3,7297799403064540682,547
NorthamptonKingsthorpe3,0746123237293548002,098
NorthamptonObelisk2,6265924459650501551,793
NorthamptonParklands3,0761,239438131291002,099
NorthamptonPhippsville3,01772962820528021702,059
NorthamptonRectory Farm502133103238300342
NorthamptonSemilong721881881437200491
NorthamptonSpring Park3,081743506195538111102,103
NorthamptonSt David's3,457650963137609002,359
NorthamptonSunnyside2,9781,0715813810002,033
NorthamptonTalavera7,6359951,8371,672709005,213
NorthamptonTrinity3,03244261543729727902,070
NorthamptonWestone2,7371,0465732500001,869
 Total59,14714,12113,8165,7545,2111,24223340,377

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Northampton NorthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
NorthamptonAbington5,9191,7252,07895920104,108
NorthamptonBoothville2,7151,1996055124501,884
NorthamptonBrookside3,7019411,466201311202,570
NorthamptonEastfield3,4311,0341,175121243402,379
NorthamptonHeadlands3,3991,0341,2434433502,359
NorthamptonKingsley3,6681,1561,19083902602,545
NorthamptonKingsthorpe3,0241,185692109842802,098
NorthamptonObelisk2,583896731401002601,793
NorthamptonParklands3,0261,3576055084402,100
NorthamptonPhippsville2,9681,02980879439902,058
NorthamptonRectory Farm49416615731610343
NorthamptonSemilong709178281131650493
NorthamptonSpring Park3,0311,12077774973402,102
NorthamptonSt David's3,4019191,28316135802,361
NorthamptonSunnyside2,9291,09281254641102,033
NorthamptonTalavera7,5112,1112,6631642611405,213
NorthamptonTrinity2,9837991,033754511802,070
NorthamptonWestone2,6921,1246573448501,868
 Total59,14719,06518,2561,0161,404636040,377

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Northampton North

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Northampton North.

Northampton NorthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
NorthamptonAbington5,9191,6012,0379712624604,107
NorthamptonBoothville2,7151,14258652782601,884
NorthamptonBrookside3,7018641,440212044002,569
NorthamptonEastfield3,4319621,151131926002,378
NorthamptonHeadlands3,3999631,219451003102,358
NorthamptonKingsley3,6681,0791,164841635402,544
NorthamptonKingsthorpe3,0241,1226711101445102,098
NorthamptonObelisk2,583842713411514601,793
NorthamptonParklands3,0261,294584511442702,100
NorthamptonPhippsville2,9689677878010212202,058
NorthamptonRectory Farm49415615432650344
NorthamptonSemilong7091632761330100492
NorthamptonSpring Park3,0311,057756751575702,102
NorthamptonSt David's3,4018481,259172023402,360
NorthamptonSunnyside2,9291,031792551223402,034
NorthamptonTalavera7,5111,9542,6111674107205,214
NorthamptonTrinity2,9837371,0127610414102,070
NorthamptonWestone2,6921,068638351012601,868
 Total59,14717,85017,8501,0352,5561,082040,373

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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