Northamptonshire South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Northamptonshire South: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Andrea Leadsom  (CON)
County/Area: Northamptonshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 85,756
Turnout: 75.8%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON40,59962.5%58.7%
LAB17,75927.3%27.7%
LIB3,6235.6%5.6%
UKIP1,3632.1%4.5%
Green1,3572.1%2.6%
OTH2970.5%0.9%
CON Majority22,84035.1%Pred Maj 31.0%
Chance of
winning
CON
91%
LAB
9%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Northamptonshire South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Northamptonshire South constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position13° Right3° Right
National Position9° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %53%59%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health52%45%48%
UK Born93%91%88%
Good Education45%36%39%
Good Job60%48%51%
High SEC63%47%51%
Average Age49.249.148.5
ABC1 Class65%50%53%

Northamptonshire South ranks #343 for "Leave", #47 for "Right" and #153 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Northamptonshire South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Northamptonshire South: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Northamptonshire South

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Northamptonshire South at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Northamptonshire South. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Northamptonshire SouthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
NorthamptonEast Hunsbury20155,9481,915676000
NorthamptonNene Valley20154,5461,6535681,1290783
NorthamptonRushmills20151,21260118831500
NorthamptonUpton20153,2771,277340000
NorthamptonWest Hunsbury20151,666478220000
South NorthamptonshireAstwell20159372680000
South NorthamptonshireBlakesley and Cote20152,9544930000
South NorthamptonshireBlisworth and Roade20152,510006960740
South NorthamptonshireBrackley East20151,970006080829
South NorthamptonshireBrackley South20151,182371039501,295
South NorthamptonshireBrackley West20151,9950066001,053
South NorthamptonshireBrafield and Yardley2015-10000-1
South NorthamptonshireCosgrove and Grafton20158583170000
South NorthamptonshireDanvers and Wardoun2015-200000
South NorthamptonshireDeanshanger20152,5488590000
South NorthamptonshireGrange Park20152,4915840000
South NorthamptonshireHackleton2015-100000
South NorthamptonshireKings Sutton20157504450000
South NorthamptonshireKingthorn2015-100000
South NorthamptonshireLittle Brook2015-100000
South NorthamptonshireMiddleton Cheney20152,6780000868
South NorthamptonshireOld Stratford2015-100000
South NorthamptonshireSalcey2015-100000
South NorthamptonshireSilverstone20151,0832390000
South NorthamptonshireSteane2015-100000
South NorthamptonshireTove20158280025400
South NorthamptonshireTowcester Brook20152,9965293,40165000
South NorthamptonshireTowcester Mill20151,5002511,849000
South NorthamptonshireWashington2015-100000
South NorthamptonshireWhittlewood2015-100000

Northamptonshire SouthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
NorthamptonEast Hunsbury8,1154,3181,3904910006,199
NorthamptonNene Valley8,6823,4741,26343486305986,632
NorthamptonRushmills50020099315200382
NorthamptonUpton4,4472,2758862360003,397
NorthamptonWest Hunsbury3,5821,9285532550002,736
South NorthamptonshireAstwell1,59394627100001,217
South NorthamptonshireBlakesley and Cote2,7001,76729500002,062
South NorthamptonshireBlisworth and Roade3,2931,6000044404722,516
South NorthamptonshireBrackley East3,2841,4510044806102,509
South NorthamptonshireBrackley South3,331927291031001,0162,544
South NorthamptonshireBrackley West3,5901,4750048807792,742
South NorthamptonshireBrafield and Yardley3,2051,22400001,2242,448
South NorthamptonshireCosgrove and Grafton1,57287732400001,201
South NorthamptonshireDanvers and Wardoun2,8342,165000002,165
South NorthamptonshireDeanshanger3,2301,84562200002,467
South NorthamptonshireGrange Park3,4532,13750100002,638
South NorthamptonshireHackleton1,7401,329000001,329
South NorthamptonshireKings Sutton1,66779947400001,273
South NorthamptonshireKingthorn1,3161,005000001,005
South NorthamptonshireLittle Brook1,7511,338000001,338
South NorthamptonshireMiddleton Cheney2,9981,73000005612,291
South NorthamptonshireOld Stratford1,5651,195000001,195
South NorthamptonshireSalcey1,7831,362000001,362
South NorthamptonshireSilverstone1,7031,06623500001,301
South NorthamptonshireSteane1,5571,189000001,189
South NorthamptonshireTove1,42883500256001,091
South NorthamptonshireTowcester Brook4,4291,3382361,519290003,383
South NorthamptonshireTowcester Mill2,8168961501,1050002,151
South NorthamptonshireWashington1,3451,027000001,027
South NorthamptonshireWhittlewood1,5811,208000001,208
 Total85,09044,9267,5904,0713,15105,26064,998

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Northamptonshire SouthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
NorthamptonEast Hunsbury8,1793,7971,87333874101166,199
NorthamptonNene Valley8,7503,6512,320320214100286,633
NorthamptonRushmills504199145191271383
NorthamptonUpton4,4822,0291,1481432244113,397
NorthamptonWest Hunsbury3,6101,652823183512342,736
South NorthamptonshireAstwell1,6058563063371221,216
South NorthamptonshireBlakesley and Cote2,7211,4864379483522,062
South NorthamptonshireBlisworth and Roade3,3191,4117689015965222,515
South NorthamptonshireBrackley East3,3101,435685109156103202,508
South NorthamptonshireBrackley South3,3571,0481,048173124112392,544
South NorthamptonshireBrackley West3,6181,62078758144101322,742
South NorthamptonshireBrafield and Yardley3,2301,379872551291402,449
South NorthamptonshireCosgrove and Grafton1,5847663643852711,201
South NorthamptonshireDanvers and Wardoun2,8561,7363712133132,165
South NorthamptonshireDeanshanger3,2551,53378554583342,467
South NorthamptonshireGrange Park3,4801,8337106322532,636
South NorthamptonshireHackleton1,7541,0512342611341,329
South NorthamptonshireKings Sutton1,6806844787013731,273
South NorthamptonshireKingthorn1,3267891781412121,005
South NorthamptonshireLittle Brook1,7651,0632053533111,338
South NorthamptonshireMiddleton Cheney3,0211,4855771241961242,290
South NorthamptonshireOld Stratford1,57795016929291551,197
South NorthamptonshireSalcey1,7971,01026633173331,362
South NorthamptonshireSilverstone1,71694425450163341,301
South NorthamptonshireSteane1,56994515340232431,188
South NorthamptonshireTove1,43975421636632031,092
South NorthamptonshireTowcester Brook4,4641,5977997911058283,382
South NorthamptonshireTowcester Mill2,8381,161385540223942,151
South NorthamptonshireWashington1,3568331501902421,028
South NorthamptonshireWhittlewood1,5939042552691221,208
 Total85,09040,60117,7613,6241,3601,35529664,998

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Northamptonshire South

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Northamptonshire South.

Northamptonshire SouthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
NorthamptonEast Hunsbury8,1793,5661,897338220133456,199
NorthamptonNene Valley8,7503,4042,346320370134596,633
NorthamptonRushmills504185146192193383
NorthamptonUpton4,4821,9021,16114310261273,396
NorthamptonWest Hunsbury3,6101,55083418311637172,737
South NorthamptonshireAstwell1,60581131133361881,217
South NorthamptonshireBlakesley and Cote2,7211,409445945746122,063
South NorthamptonshireBlisworth and Roade3,3191,3177789021878342,515
South NorthamptonshireBrackley East3,3101,341695109215116322,508
South NorthamptonshireBrackley South3,3579531,058173184125512,544
South NorthamptonshireBrackley West3,6181,51879858209115452,743
South NorthamptonshireBrafield and Yardley3,2301,2888815570104512,449
South NorthamptonshireCosgrove and Grafton1,58472136938333371,201
South NorthamptonshireDanvers and Wardoun2,8561,655379215442132,164
South NorthamptonshireDeanshanger3,2551,4417955411646152,467
South NorthamptonshireGrange Park3,4801,735720636439152,636
South NorthamptonshireHackleton1,7541,001239263220101,328
South NorthamptonshireKings Sutton1,68063748370314491,274
South NorthamptonshireKingthorn1,32675218214252671,006
South NorthamptonshireLittle Brook1,7651,01321035353871,338
South NorthamptonshireMiddleton Cheney3,0211,4005861247373352,291
South NorthamptonshireOld Stratford1,577905174295721111,197
South NorthamptonshireSalcey1,79795927133494091,361
South NorthamptonshireSilverstone1,716895259504740101,301
South NorthamptonshireSteane1,56990115840513091,189
South NorthamptonshireTove1,43971322036892681,092
South NorthamptonshireTowcester Brook4,4641,47181279118599243,382
South NorthamptonshireTowcester Mill2,8381,0813935407350142,151
South NorthamptonshireWashington1,35679515419242971,028
South NorthamptonshireWhittlewood1,59385926026371881,208
 Total85,09038,17818,0143,6242,8931,69060265,001

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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