Norwich North: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Norwich North: Overview

 Prediction: LAB gain from CON 

MP at 2017: Chloe Smith  (CON)
County/Area: Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 66,924
Turnout: 68.6%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON21,90047.7%44.7%
LAB21,39346.6%45.6%
LIB1,4803.2%3.3%
Green7821.7%3.0%
OTH3400.7%0.2%
UKIP00.0%3.3%
CON Majority5071.1%Pred Maj 0.9%
Chance of
winning
CON
49%
LAB
51%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
UKIP
0%

Norwich North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Norwich North constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position2° Right8° Right
National Position6° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %54%57%52%
British Identity25%27%29%
Good Health42%47%48%
UK Born93%89%88%
Good Education32%37%39%
Good Job44%53%51%
High SEC45%53%51%
Average Age49.349.448.5
ABC1 Class47%55%53%

Norwich North ranks #305 for "Leave", #291 for "Right" and #232 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Norwich North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Norwich North: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Norwich North

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Norwich North at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Norwich North. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Norwich NorthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
BroadlandHellesdon North West20152,73583679277300
BroadlandHellesdon South East20152,2801,2481,144000
BroadlandOld Catton and Sprowston West20155,7883,1741,31190400
BroadlandSprowston Central20152,2641,82153561100
BroadlandSprowston East20155,3163,1931,226000
BroadlandThorpe St Andrew North West20155,8143,7881,32087700
BroadlandThorpe St Andrew South East20155,6362,7031,24059100
NorwichCatton Grove20151,4111,7022697994830
NorwichCrome20151,1321,82117579335037
NorwichMile Cross20151,5743,0854769051,4070
NorwichSewell20152,0773,4725886282,0730

Norwich NorthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BroadlandHellesdon North West4,3521,633499473462003,067
BroadlandHellesdon South East3,8041,3087166560002,680
BroadlandOld Catton and Sprowston West6,2902,2951,259520358004,432
BroadlandSprowston Central4,0851,2461,002294336002,878
BroadlandSprowston East5,1101,9661,1814530003,600
BroadlandThorpe St Andrew North West5,4501,8921,233430285003,840
BroadlandThorpe St Andrew South East5,4132,1141,014465222003,815
NorwichCatton Grove7,8331,6702,01431894657205,520
NorwichCrome7,4121,3722,208212961424455,222
NorwichMile Cross7,9561,1852,3223586811,05905,605
NorwichSewell7,4291,2302,0563483721,22805,234
 Total65,13417,91115,5044,5274,6233,2834545,893

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Norwich NorthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BroadlandHellesdon North West4,4721,8101,06916105223,067
BroadlandHellesdon South East3,9091,5151,00513904172,680
BroadlandOld Catton and Sprowston West6,4632,5531,643195016264,433
BroadlandSprowston Central4,1971,4791,25399025212,877
BroadlandSprowston East5,2502,0931,37011506163,600
BroadlandThorpe St Andrew North West5,6002,1241,514167015213,841
BroadlandThorpe St Andrew South East5,5622,3011,33915206163,814
NorwichCatton Grove8,0482,3232,948880121415,521
NorwichCrome7,6162,0552,93299078595,223
NorwichMile Cross8,1751,8673,396880208465,605
NorwichSewell7,6331,7792,9261760299565,236
 Total65,13421,89921,3951,479078334145,893

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Norwich North

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Norwich North.

Norwich NorthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BroadlandHellesdon North West4,4721,7171,0381631004463,068
BroadlandHellesdon South East3,9091,434978141863742,680
BroadlandOld Catton and Sprowston West6,4632,4191,5981981417174,434
BroadlandSprowston Central4,1971,3921,224101946152,877
BroadlandSprowston East5,2501,9841,3341171124943,600
BroadlandThorpe St Andrew North West5,6002,0081,4751691216253,840
BroadlandThorpe St Andrew South East5,5622,1861,3001541185243,814
NorwichCatton Grove8,0482,1562,89291180191105,520
NorwichCrome7,6161,8972,879102181148155,222
NorwichMile Cross8,1751,6983,33991185280125,605
NorwichSewell7,6331,6212,873179180369145,236
 Total65,13420,51220,9301,5061,4981,3648645,896

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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