Orkney and Shetland: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Orkney and Shetland: Overview

 Prediction: LIB hold 

MP at 2017: Alistair Carmichael  (LIB)
County/Area: Orkney and Shetland (Scotland)
Electorate: 34,164
Turnout: 68.1%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LIB11,31248.6%45.7%
SNP6,74929.0%32.5%
LAB2,66411.4%11.3%
CON2,0248.7%7.2%
UKIP2831.2%1.8%
OTH2451.1%0.6%
Green00.0%1.1%
LIB Majority4,56319.6%Pred Maj 13.2%
Chance of
winning
LIB
59%
SNP
32%
LAB
6%
CON
4%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Orkney and Shetland : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Orkney and Shetland constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatScotlandAll GB
Party WinnerLIBSNPCON
Economic Position9° Left14° Left
National Position17° Int17° Int1° Int
EU Leave %40%38%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health54%52%48%
UK Born96%93%88%
Good Education35%36%39%
Good Job40%49%51%
High SEC55%55%51%
Average Age50.448.748.5
ABC1 Class42%50%53%

Orkney and Shetland ranks #545 for "Leave", #510 for "Right" and #554 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Orkney and Shetland: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Orkney and Shetland: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Orkney and Shetland

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Orkney and Shetland at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Orkney and Shetland. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Orkney and ShetlandActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
Other
Votes
Orkney IslandsEast Mainland, South Ronaldsay and Burray201200000471,338
Orkney IslandsKirkwall East201200000931,453
Orkney IslandsKirkwall West and Orphir201200000501,480
Orkney IslandsNorth Isles20120000001,055
Orkney IslandsStromness and South Isles2012000110611,000
Orkney IslandsWest Mainland20120000001,835
Shetland IslandsLerwick North201200000651,147
Shetland IslandsLerwick South2012000001191,655
Shetland IslandsNorth Isles20120000001,379
Shetland IslandsShetland Central20120000001,028
Shetland IslandsShetland North20120000001,433
Shetland IslandsShetland South20120000001,508
Shetland IslandsShetland West20120000001,292

Orkney and ShetlandTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Orkney IslandsEast Mainland, South Ronaldsay and Burray2,53500000581,6501,708
Orkney IslandsKirkwall East3,462000001402,1922,332
Orkney IslandsKirkwall West and Orphir3,27800000722,1362,208
Orkney IslandsNorth Isles1,7740000001,1951,195
Orkney IslandsStromness and South Isles2,209000150851,3881,488
Orkney IslandsWest Mainland3,3110000002,2312,231
Shetland IslandsLerwick North2,51700000911,6051,696
Shetland IslandsLerwick South3,636000001642,2852,449
Shetland IslandsNorth Isles2,1760000001,4661,466
Shetland IslandsShetland Central2,2940000001,5451,545
Shetland IslandsShetland North2,5560000001,7221,722
Shetland IslandsShetland South2,7090000001,8251,825
Shetland IslandsShetland West2,0940000001,4111,411
 Total34,55100015061022,65123,276

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Orkney and ShetlandEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Orkney IslandsEast Mainland, South Ronaldsay and Burray2,507189120835200526181,708
Orkney IslandsKirkwall East3,4231913211,051170730242,334
Orkney IslandsKirkwall West and Orphir3,2412091821,079180694262,208
Orkney IslandsNorth Isles1,75420277565200321111,196
Orkney IslandsStromness and South Isles2,184245102623220477191,488
Orkney IslandsWest Mainland3,2742031861,155230641222,230
Shetland IslandsLerwick North2,48988237840170494191,695
Shetland IslandsLerwick South3,5951404251,125300703262,449
Shetland IslandsNorth Isles2,152147157728240397131,466
Shetland IslandsShetland Central2,26875209784160445161,545
Shetland IslandsShetland North2,527159213802280503181,723
Shetland IslandsShetland South2,679103254965280455191,824
Shetland IslandsShetland West2,07173182759200364141,412
 Total34,5512,0242,66511,31128306,75024523,276

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Orkney and Shetland

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Orkney and Shetland.

Orkney and ShetlandPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Orkney IslandsEast Mainland, South Ronaldsay and Burray2,5071561187853019590101,708
Orkney IslandsKirkwall East3,4231583169832924811132,334
Orkney IslandsKirkwall West and Orphir3,2411721791,0143024774142,207
Orkney IslandsNorth Isles1,75416776530281637461,197
Orkney IslandsStromness and South Isles2,1842021005793220544101,487
Orkney IslandsWest Mainland3,2741681831,0903524719122,231
Shetland IslandsLerwick North2,489732337902516547101,694
Shetland IslandsLerwick South3,5951164181,0534224782142,449
Shetland IslandsNorth Isles2,152121155685321645071,466
Shetland IslandsShetland Central2,26862206739231449291,545
Shetland IslandsShetland North2,5271312107513819565101,724
Shetland IslandsShetland South2,679852509123717513101,824
Shetland IslandsShetland West2,07160179718271340871,412
 Total34,5511,6712,62310,6294082467,56913223,278

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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