Oxford East: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Oxford East: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2017: Anneliese Dodds  (LAB)
County/Area: Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate: 78,360
Turnout: 68.8%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB35,11865.2%65.5%
CON11,83422.0%18.2%
LIB4,9049.1%9.1%
Green1,7853.3%3.8%
OTH2550.5%0.9%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
LAB Majority23,28443.2%Pred Maj 47.3%
Chance of
winning
LAB
99%
CON
1%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
UKIP
0%

Oxford East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Oxford East constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerLABCONCON
Economic Position18° Left4° Right
National Position19° Int3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %32%52%52%
British Identity34%29%29%
Good Health54%49%48%
UK Born72%88%88%
Good Education57%43%39%
Good Job57%56%51%
High SEC49%57%51%
Average Age40.249.248.5
ABC1 Class61%60%53%

Oxford East ranks #605 for "Leave", #611 for "Right" and #573 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Oxford East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Oxford East: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Oxford East

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Oxford East at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Oxford East. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Oxford EastActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
OxfordBarton and Sandhills201420277310529312128
OxfordBlackbird Leys20145464219196430
OxfordCarfax2014315448276048345
OxfordChurchill2014117607951791640
OxfordCowley20141866591420268373
OxfordCowley Marsh201439479313504200
OxfordHeadington201423451494601810
OxfordHeadington Hill and Northway2014433719113018624
OxfordHinksey Park20141951,158108883730
OxfordHolywell201428036917406750
OxfordIffley Fields20141059868809040
OxfordLittlemore20143177628502570
OxfordLye Valley201426372810303110
OxfordMarston20142971,0641692012540
OxfordNorthfield Brook20141127005501110
OxfordQuarry and Risinghurst201441594154902530
OxfordRose Hill and Iffley20141408732232712480
OxfordSt Clement's2014129875148053222
OxfordSt Mary's20141165468807330

Oxford EastTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
OxfordBarton and Sandhills4,7074261,631222618255593,211
OxfordBlackbird Leys3,9761541,8265455712202,713
OxfordCarfax4,1995768195050883822,865
OxfordChurchill4,8203311,71826950746403,289
OxfordCowley4,3043361,18925604846732,938
OxfordCowley Marsh4,5667051,419241075103,116
OxfordHeadington3,7723217061,299024902,575
OxfordHeadington Hill and Northway4,0418101,3442110348452,758
OxfordHinksey Park3,8822691,59614912151402,649
OxfordHolywell3,55545359828201,09302,426
OxfordIffley Fields3,7361291,20710801,10702,551
OxfordLittlemore4,2106411,541172052002,874
OxfordLye Valley4,8216161,705241072803,290
OxfordMarston4,0964181,49823828335802,795
OxfordNorthfield Brook4,5743572,234176035403,121
OxfordQuarry and Risinghurst4,0885371,217710032702,791
OxfordRose Hill and Iffley4,2452311,44136844740902,896
OxfordSt Clement's3,8952011,3632310829342,658
OxfordSt Mary's3,48618687614101,17602,379
 Total78,9737,69725,9285,8732,53310,97189353,895

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Oxford EastEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
OxfordBarton and Sandhills4,6707822,224158029173,210
OxfordBlackbird Leys3,9455482,0994801622,713
OxfordCarfax4,1667441,6362870182182,867
OxfordChurchill4,7835972,412210060103,289
OxfordCowley4,2715881,9112600681112,938
OxfordCowley Marsh4,5317382,0132190136103,116
OxfordHeadington3,7434921,26076305382,576
OxfordHeadington Hill and Northway4,0108621,520304061102,757
OxfordHinksey Park3,8524061,799308013162,650
OxfordHolywell3,5275711,381314015822,426
OxfordIffley Fields3,7073871,7572000193122,549
OxfordLittlemore4,1777771,90312706352,875
OxfordLye Valley4,7848632,129218070113,291
OxfordMarston4,0647041,77027204552,796
OxfordNorthfield Brook4,5386292,34511103433,122
OxfordQuarry and Risinghurst4,0567361,54845204592,790
OxfordRose Hill and Iffley4,2125922,02822804632,897
OxfordSt Clement's3,8653871,8072600192132,659
OxfordSt Mary's3,4594311,577164020532,380
 Total78,97311,83435,1194,90301,78725853,895

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Oxford East

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Oxford East.

Oxford EastPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
OxfordBarton and Sandhills4,6706562,2371588046333,210
OxfordBlackbird Leys3,9454422,110486731152,713
OxfordCarfax4,1666321,64828771197322,867
OxfordChurchill4,7834802,4242107476243,288
OxfordCowley4,2714731,92326073841252,938
OxfordCowley Marsh4,5316162,02621977153253,116
OxfordHeadington3,7433961,2707636166202,576
OxfordHeadington Hill and Northway4,0107541,5313046876232,756
OxfordHinksey Park3,8523261,80730850142162,649
OxfordHolywell3,5274761,39131460171142,426
OxfordIffley Fields3,7073111,76520048203212,548
OxfordLittlemore4,1776641,9151277179192,875
OxfordLye Valley4,7847342,1422188288273,291
OxfordMarston4,0645941,7812726960192,795
OxfordNorthfield Brook4,5385072,3581117751183,122
OxfordQuarry and Risinghurst4,0566271,5594526960232,790
OxfordRose Hill and Iffley4,2124782,0402287262172,897
OxfordSt Clement's3,8653111,81526048202222,658
OxfordSt Mary's3,4593471,58616453217132,380
 Total78,9739,82435,3284,9031,2702,06450653,895

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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