Oxford West and Abingdon: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Oxford West and Abingdon: Overview

 Prediction: LIB hold 

MP at 2017: Layla Moran  (LIB)
County/Area: Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate: 79,289
Turnout: 75.7%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LIB26,25643.7%43.8%
CON25,44042.4%38.7%
LAB7,57312.6%13.0%
UKIP7511.3%3.6%
Green00.0%0.5%
OTH00.0%0.5%
LIB Majority8161.4%Pred Maj 5.1%
Chance of
winning
LIB
53%
CON
44%
LAB
3%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Oxford West and Abingdon : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Oxford West and Abingdon constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerLIBCONCON
Economic Position1° Right4° Right
National Position10° Int3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %38%52%52%
British Identity32%29%29%
Good Health53%49%48%
UK Born82%88%88%
Good Education55%43%39%
Good Job65%56%51%
High SEC64%57%51%
Average Age48.249.248.5
ABC1 Class70%60%53%

Oxford West and Abingdon ranks #575 for "Leave", #313 for "Right" and #508 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Oxford West and Abingdon: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Oxford West and Abingdon: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Oxford West and Abingdon

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Oxford West and Abingdon at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Oxford West and Abingdon. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Oxford West and AbingdonActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
CherwellKidlington North20151,1363878593241840
CherwellKidlington South20151,8558009015622650
CherwellYarnton, Gosford and Water Eaton20151,72947148802780
OxfordJericho and Osney20142211,31324103990
OxfordNorth201431872365703790
OxfordSt Margaret's201440949261003050
OxfordSummertown20147806061,94307240
OxfordWolvercote201467725097102750
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Abbey Northcourt20152,3146352,21106850
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Caldecott20152,4895562,002500458145
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Dunmore20152,7404732,3910503229
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Fitzharris20152,6696892,21200520
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Peachcroft20153,0594442,533561650240
Vale of White HorseBotley and Sunningwell20151,9996432,90840300
Vale of White HorseCumnor20152,4107153,45736400
Vale of White HorseKennington and Radley20152,7626842,81104840
Vale of White HorseMarcham2015597072300168
Vale of White HorseThames20151,232058623000
Vale of White HorseWootton20151,020213751000

Oxford West and AbingdonTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CherwellKidlington North4,1101,21641491934719703,093
CherwellKidlington South6,2151,97985496160028304,677
CherwellYarnton, Gosford and Water Eaton3,5171,543420435024802,646
OxfordJericho and Osney5,0463862,293421069703,797
OxfordNorth4,4315101,1611,055060803,334
OxfordSt Margaret's4,1146978391,040052003,096
OxfordSummertown5,4307866111,959073004,086
OxfordWolvercote4,4241,0373831,487042103,328
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Abbey Northcourt4,6951,3993841,336041403,533
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Caldecott5,5411,6873771,357339310984,168
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Dunmore4,6271,5062601,31402761263,482
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Fitzharris4,8091,5864091,314003093,618
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Peachcroft5,2861,6252361,3462983451273,977
Vale of White HorseBotley and Sunningwell4,4551,1263621,637227003,352
Vale of White HorseCumnor4,3781,1433391,639173003,294
Vale of White HorseKennington and Radley5,2081,6063981,634028103,919
Vale of White HorseMarcham13240048001199
Vale of White HorseThames74633801616300562
Vale of White HorseWootton2,6041,0072107420001,959
 Total79,76821,2179,95020,8052,0475,33067160,020

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Oxford West and AbingdonEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CherwellKidlington North4,0851,4003021,280111003,093
CherwellKidlington South6,1782,2316141,636195004,676
CherwellYarnton, Gosford and Water Eaton3,4961,54423284030002,646
OxfordJericho and Osney5,0169481,3561,4921003,797
OxfordNorth4,4049547321,6480003,334
OxfordSt Margaret's4,0891,0335611,5012003,097
OxfordSummertown5,3971,1575552,3740004,086
OxfordWolvercote4,3971,2063521,7710003,329
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Abbey Northcourt4,6671,6203641,53811003,533
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Caldecott5,5081,9734691,615112004,169
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Dunmore4,5991,6673191,4888003,482
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Fitzharris4,7801,6953621,52833003,618
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Peachcroft5,2541,9362811,67387003,977
Vale of White HorseBotley and Sunningwell4,4281,3383371,62947003,351
Vale of White HorseCumnor4,3521,4362651,55933003,293
Vale of White HorseKennington and Radley5,1771,8772851,71344003,919
Vale of White HorseMarcham13151345100100
Vale of White HorseThames742340191891200560
Vale of White HorseWootton2,5881,03416673722001,959
 Total79,76825,4407,57426,2567490060,020

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Oxford West and Abingdon

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Oxford West and Abingdon.

Oxford West and AbingdonPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CherwellKidlington North4,0851,2853141,28018416143,093
CherwellKidlington South6,1782,0576321,63630524224,676
CherwellYarnton, Gosford and Water Eaton3,4961,4452428409214122,645
OxfordJericho and Osney5,0168061,3711,4929120183,798
OxfordNorth4,4048307451,6487917153,334
OxfordSt Margaret's4,0899175731,5017516143,096
OxfordSummertown5,3971,0055712,3749621194,086
OxfordWolvercote4,3971,0823651,7717917153,329
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Abbey Northcourt4,6671,4883781,5389418163,532
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Caldecott5,5081,8174851,61521021194,167
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Dunmore4,5991,5373331,4889018163,482
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Fitzharris4,7801,5603761,52811819173,618
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Peachcroft5,2541,7882961,67318120183,976
Vale of White HorseBotley and Sunningwell4,4281,2133501,62912617163,351
Vale of White HorseCumnor4,3521,3132781,55911117153,293
Vale of White HorseKennington and Radley5,1771,7313001,71313620183,918
Vale of White HorseMarcham1314734531099
Vale of White HorseThames742319211892533560
Vale of White HorseWootton2,588961174737681091,959
 Total79,76823,2017,80726,2562,16330927660,012

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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