Penrith and The Border: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Penrith and The Border: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Rory Stewart  (CON)
County/Area: Cumbria (North West)
Electorate: 65,139
Turnout: 71.3%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON28,07860.4%56.5%
LAB12,16826.2%26.6%
LIB3,6417.8%7.8%
UKIP1,1422.5%5.0%
Green1,0292.2%2.8%
OTH4120.9%1.4%
CON Majority15,91034.2%Pred Maj 29.9%
Chance of
winning
CON
89%
LAB
11%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Penrith and The Border : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Penrith and The Border constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position13° Right6° Left
National Position8° Nat2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %56%54%52%
British Identity31%28%29%
Good Health46%46%48%
UK Born97%92%88%
Good Education39%37%39%
Good Job43%49%51%
High SEC48%48%51%
Average Age52.748.648.5
ABC1 Class46%50%53%

Penrith and The Border ranks #272 for "Leave", #55 for "Right" and #166 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Penrith and The Border: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Penrith and The Border: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Penrith and The Border

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Penrith and The Border at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Penrith and The Border. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Penrith and The BorderActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
AllerdaleWarnell2015790001892070
AllerdaleWigton20151,8112,41401,8452790
CarlisleBrampton2014700244562061130
CarlisleGreat Corby and Geltsdale20124022610000
CarlisleHayton201216700380642
CarlisleIrthing2015761208002170
CarlisleLongtown and Rockcliffe20151,00439498367520
CarlisleLyne20159170002620
CarlisleStanwix Rural20151,63557003711430
EdenAlston Moor201548700001,156
EdenAppleby (Appleby)201500000-1
EdenAppleby (Bongate)201500-1000
EdenAskham20154320337000
EdenBrough201500000706
EdenCrosby Ravensworth2015-100000
EdenDacre20150050300393
EdenEamont2015-100000
EdenGreystoke2015-100000
EdenHartside20154380000334
EdenHesket20151,9190000502
EdenKirkby Stephen2015-10000-1
EdenKirkby Thore201500000-1
EdenKirkoswald201500000-1
EdenLangwathby20152390000645
EdenLazonby2015-100000
EdenLong Marton2015-100000
EdenMorland201500000-1
EdenOrton with Tebay2015-100000
EdenPenrith Carleton20155250264000
EdenPenrith East2015-10-1000
EdenPenrith North20152,2616061,946000
EdenPenrith Pategill201500-1000
EdenPenrith South2015615030200576
EdenPenrith West2015545475571000
EdenRavenstonedale2015-100000
EdenShap2015-100000
EdenSkelton2015-100000
EdenUllswater2015-100000
EdenWarcop201500000-1

Penrith and The BorderTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
AllerdaleWarnell1,5917550018119801,134
AllerdaleWigton4,6469441,259096214503,310
CarlisleBrampton3,7011,40048811241222602,638
CarlisleGreat Corby and Geltsdale1,67072246800001,190
CarlisleHayton1,694238005409151,207
CarlisleIrthing1,5847241980020701,129
CarlisleLongtown and Rockcliffe3,2291,2064731184416202,300
CarlisleLyne1,53585100024301,094
CarlisleStanwix Rural3,7191,594556036213902,651
EdenAlston Moor1,65735000008311,181
EdenAppleby (Appleby)1,02600000731731
EdenAppleby (Bongate)1,39600995000995
EdenAskham1,1404560356000812
EdenBrough1,05200000750750
EdenCrosby Ravensworth1,11579500000795
EdenDacre1,1330045300354807
EdenEamont1,16182700000827
EdenGreystoke1,11879700000797
EdenHartside1,0144100000313723
EdenHesket2,4731,39700003651,762
EdenKirkby Stephen2,05473200007321,464
EdenKirkby Thore1,23600000881881
EdenKirkoswald1,17200000835835
EdenLangwathby1,2442400000647887
EdenLazonby1,13781000000810
EdenLong Marton96668800000688
EdenMorland1,04100000742742
EdenOrton with Tebay1,07676700000767
EdenPenrith Carleton1,2245800292000872
EdenPenrith East2,14076307630001,526
EdenPenrith North3,3421,1193009630002,382
EdenPenrith Pategill1,07900769000769
EdenPenrith South2,0035880289005511,428
EdenPenrith West2,5826305496600001,839
EdenRavenstonedale78455900000559
EdenShap1,10979000000790
EdenSkelton1,16483000000830
EdenUllswater1,12079800000798
EdenWarcop1,08200000771771
 Total65,20923,3604,2915,7702,4121,2209,41846,471

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Penrith and The BorderEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
AllerdaleWarnell1,589837128234410031,135
AllerdaleWigton4,6411,2241,6545728774133,309
CarlisleBrampton3,6971,501681187141116122,638
CarlisleGreat Corby and Geltsdale1,6687443933431241,190
CarlisleHayton1,692648426622716271,206
CarlisleIrthing1,582715254341410471,128
CarlisleLongtown and Rockcliffe3,2261,3586717814338132,301
CarlisleLyne1,533826119201610851,094
CarlisleStanwix Rural3,7151,6916708812266132,650
EdenAlston Moor1,655626378763835271,180
EdenAppleby (Appleby)1,02533430833241418731
EdenAppleby (Bongate)1,3953602513522184996
EdenAskham1,1395281011582212812
EdenBrough1,0513962803117819751
EdenCrosby Ravensworth1,11469070151162794
EdenDacre1,13237321718391510807
EdenEamont1,16069011415322826
EdenGreystoke1,11765458516227798
EdenHartside1,0134831782961611723
EdenHesket2,4701,35728276229161,762
EdenKirkby Stephen2,052965324973719231,465
EdenKirkby Thore1,2354543672412322882
EdenKirkoswald1,1714273075711923834
EdenLangwathby1,2435492812010818886
EdenLazonby1,136645133170132810
EdenLong Marton96557677162126689
EdenMorland1,0403882912122219743
EdenOrton with Tebay1,07563568439102767
EdenPenrith Carleton1,223597138123644872
EdenPenrith East2,138874307304231171,526
EdenPenrith North3,3381,247636452192082,382
EdenPenrith Pategill1,0782152612751414770
EdenPenrith South2,001771452157264171,427
EdenPenrith West2,579750749297221481,840
EdenRavenstonedale7835101916482559
EdenShap1,1085971343013115790
EdenSkelton1,1637276823192830
EdenUllswater1,1196844752196799
EdenWarcop1,08143327714151419772
 Total65,20928,07912,1693,6401,1431,03141246,471

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Penrith and The Border

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Penrith and The Border.

Penrith and The BorderPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
AllerdaleWarnell1,589792133237210691,135
AllerdaleWigton4,6411,0931,6685737092293,309
CarlisleBrampton3,6971,396692187207130252,637
CarlisleGreat Corby and Geltsdale1,668697398343319101,191
CarlisleHayton1,692600431625723331,206
CarlisleIrthing1,5826702593442110131,128
CarlisleLongtown and Rockcliffe3,2261,2676817820151242,302
CarlisleLyne1,5337831242043114101,094
CarlisleStanwix Rural3,7151,5866818818880262,649
EdenAlston Moor1,655579383766841331,180
EdenAppleby (Appleby)1,02530531133421822731
EdenAppleby (Bongate)1,39532025535246139995
EdenAskham1,13949610415822256811
EdenBrough1,05136628331361223751
EdenCrosby Ravensworth1,114658731521206793
EdenDacre1,132341220183291914806
EdenEamont1,160657117152476826
EdenGreystoke1,1176226151262611797
EdenHartside1,01345418129242015723
EdenHesket2,4701,287289764639251,762
EdenKirkby Stephen2,052907330977427301,465
EdenKirkby Thore1,2354193712434826882
EdenKirkoswald1,17139431057222427834
EdenLangwathby1,24351428520321322886
EdenLazonby1,1366131361720176809
EdenLong Marton965549801619169689
EdenMorland1,04035929421212623744
EdenOrton with Tebay1,075605714328146767
EdenPenrith Carleton1,2235621421232898872
EdenPenrith East2,1388133133046119151,525
EdenPenrith North3,3381,1526464527933202,382
EdenPenrith Pategill1,0781842642753358769
EdenPenrith South2,0017144581576212241,427
EdenPenrith West2,5796777572976824171,840
EdenRavenstonedale783488211618115559
EdenShap1,1085661373033159790
EdenSkelton1,163694712322146830
EdenUllswater1,1196525052211310798
EdenWarcop1,08140228014341823771
 Total65,20926,23312,3603,6402,3061,28364346,465

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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