Pontypridd: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Pontypridd: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2017: Owen Smith  (LAB)
County/Area: Mid Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate: 60,566
Turnout: 65.9%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB22,10355.4%55.8%
CON10,65526.7%22.9%
Plaid4,10210.3%10.3%
LIB1,9634.9%4.9%
UKIP1,0712.7%5.1%
Green00.0%0.5%
OTH00.0%0.5%
LAB Majority11,44828.7%Pred Maj 32.9%
Chance of
winning
LAB
93%
CON
7%
Plaid
0%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Pontypridd : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Pontypridd constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position15° Left10° Left
National Position7° Int3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %49%53%52%
British Identity23%26%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born96%95%88%
Good Education39%36%39%
Good Job51%46%51%
High SEC49%46%51%
Average Age48.049.648.5
ABC1 Class52%47%53%

Pontypridd ranks #429 for "Leave", #580 for "Right" and #488 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Pontypridd: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Pontypridd: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Pontypridd

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Pontypridd at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Pontypridd. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

PontypriddActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Rhondda Cynon TafBeddau20120661000116174
Rhondda Cynon TafChurch Village20121696570001890
Rhondda Cynon TafGraig (Pontypridd)20120339210065148
Rhondda Cynon TafHawthorn2012048283003520
Rhondda Cynon TafLlanharry201206000002470
Rhondda Cynon TafLlantrisant Town20121629400002480
Rhondda Cynon TafLlantwit Fardre20121,0511,016000418535
Rhondda Cynon TafPont-y-clun20124221,293021701,0141,233
Rhondda Cynon TafPontypridd Town201203729200123312
Rhondda Cynon TafRhondda201201,15400176169892
Rhondda Cynon TafRhydfelen Central / Ilan2012071459001280
Rhondda Cynon TafTaffs Well201205890003590
Rhondda Cynon TafTalbot Green20124937500066400
Rhondda Cynon TafTon-teg20123581,12928200161645
Rhondda Cynon TafTonyrefail East201201,186178004301,178
Rhondda Cynon TafTonyrefail West20120792000360331
Rhondda Cynon TafTrallwng201204175370084120
Rhondda Cynon TafTreforest20120424153036610
Rhondda Cynon TafTyn-y-nant201207910001160

PontypriddTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Rhondda Cynon TafBeddau3,05501,4380002523782,068
Rhondda Cynon TafChurch Village3,6914161,61700046502,498
Rhondda Cynon TafGraig (Pontypridd)1,805072345001393161,223
Rhondda Cynon TafHawthorn2,62609341610068201,777
Rhondda Cynon TafLlanharry9104400018062
Rhondda Cynon TafLlantrisant Town3,5662901,68100044302,414
Rhondda Cynon TafLlantwit Fardre4,4771,0551,0200004205373,032
Rhondda Cynon TafPont-y-clun5,1543521,080018108471,0303,490
Rhondda Cynon TafPontypridd Town2,0740581144001924871,404
Rhondda Cynon TafRhondda3,41501,116001701638632,312
Rhondda Cynon TafRhydfelen Central / Ilan3,27901,7591450031502,219
Rhondda Cynon TafTaffs Well2,71301,14100069601,837
Rhondda Cynon TafTalbot Green1,91972547000965841,299
Rhondda Cynon TafTon-teg2,940277873218001244991,991
Rhondda Cynon TafTonyrefail East4,33901,172176004251,1642,937
Rhondda Cynon TafTonyrefail West4,67001,6880007677063,161
Rhondda Cynon TafTrallwng2,7640674868001361941,872
Rhondda Cynon TafTreforest3,79401,616583013723202,568
Rhondda Cynon TafTyn-y-nant2,55501,50900022101,730
 Total58,9272,46221,2132,3401813076,6336,75839,894

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

PontypriddEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Rhondda Cynon TafBeddau3,1404561,3515643016302,069
Rhondda Cynon TafChurch Village3,7946541,5045630025502,499
Rhondda Cynon TafGraig (Pontypridd)1,8552467795318012701,223
Rhondda Cynon TafHawthorn2,69929794611263035901,777
Rhondda Cynon TafLlanharry9410411109062
Rhondda Cynon TafLlantrisant Town3,6656171,4608226022802,413
Rhondda Cynon TafLlantwit Fardre4,6021,4091,2498060023403,032
Rhondda Cynon TafPont-y-clun5,2971,5451,34097171033603,489
Rhondda Cynon TafPontypridd Town2,13242068113860010401,403
Rhondda Cynon TafRhondda3,5106141,31749109022302,312
Rhondda Cynon TafRhydfelen Central / Ilan3,3702121,6138348026402,220
Rhondda Cynon TafTaffs Well2,7883711,0575128033001,837
Rhondda Cynon TafTalbot Green1,972542602464506401,299
Rhondda Cynon TafTon-teg3,0226561,01015962010401,991
Rhondda Cynon TafTonyrefail East4,4608021,62289100032402,937
Rhondda Cynon TafTonyrefail West4,8006911,84636102048603,161
Rhondda Cynon TafTrallwng2,84142487142333012001,871
Rhondda Cynon TafTreforest3,9004711,55232732018702,569
Rhondda Cynon TafTyn-y-nant2,6262171,2612641018501,730
 Total58,92710,65422,1021,9641,07204,102039,894

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Pontypridd

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Pontypridd.

PontypriddPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Rhondda Cynon TafBeddau3,1403721,360569612163102,069
Rhondda Cynon TafChurch Village3,7945521,514569414255132,498
Rhondda Cynon TafGraig (Pontypridd)1,8551967845349712761,222
Rhondda Cynon TafHawthorn2,699237952112101835981,777
Rhondda Cynon TafLlanharry948411209061
Rhondda Cynon TafLlantrisant Town3,6655191,470828814228122,413
Rhondda Cynon TafLlantwit Fardre4,6021,2861,2628013817234153,032
Rhondda Cynon TafPont-y-clun5,2971,4031,3559726120336183,490
Rhondda Cynon TafPontypridd Town2,13236368713896810471,403
Rhondda Cynon TafRhondda3,5105201,3274916813223122,312
Rhondda Cynon TafRhydfelen Central / Ilan3,3701691,6178375626452,219
Rhondda Cynon TafTaffs Well2,7882961,06551751033091,836
Rhondda Cynon TafTalbot Green1,972489607467876471,298
Rhondda Cynon TafTon-teg3,0225751,01815911311104101,990
Rhondda Cynon TafTonyrefail East4,4606831,6348917516324152,936
Rhondda Cynon TafTonyrefail West4,8005631,8593618318486163,161
Rhondda Cynon TafTrallwng2,841348879423811112091,871
Rhondda Cynon TafTreforest3,9003751,5623279313187122,569
Rhondda Cynon TafTyn-y-nant2,6261731,2662669618551,730
 Total58,9279,12722,2591,9642,0352114,10218939,887

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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