Preseli Pembrokeshire: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Preseli Pembrokeshire: Overview

 Prediction: LAB gain from CON 

MP at 2017: Stephen Crabb  (CON)
County/Area: Dyfed (Wales)
Electorate: 58,540
Turnout: 72.1%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON18,30243.4%40.3%
LAB17,98842.6%41.6%
Plaid2,7116.4%6.4%
MIN1,2092.9%2.9%
LIB1,1062.6%2.7%
UKIP8502.0%5.0%
OTH310.1%0.0%
Green00.0%1.1%
CON Majority3140.7%Pred Maj 1.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
46%
LAB
54%
Plaid
0%
MIN
0%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Preseli Pembrokeshire : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Preseli Pembrokeshire constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position4° Left10° Left
National Position1° Nat3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %56%53%52%
British Identity27%26%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born96%95%88%
Good Education37%36%39%
Good Job42%46%51%
High SEC44%46%51%
Average Age51.949.648.5
ABC1 Class42%47%53%

Preseli Pembrokeshire ranks #267 for "Leave", #422 for "Right" and #364 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Preseli Pembrokeshire: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Preseli Pembrokeshire: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Preseli Pembrokeshire

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Preseli Pembrokeshire at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Preseli Pembrokeshire. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Preseli PembrokeshireActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
PembrokeshireBurton2012000000-1
PembrokeshireCamrose2012000000-1
PembrokeshireCilgerran20120000051751
PembrokeshireClydau201200000-10
PembrokeshireCrymych201200000488707
PembrokeshireDinas Cross201200-10000
PembrokeshireFishguard North East201217600000609
PembrokeshireFishguard North West201210129382002849
PembrokeshireGoodwick2012148238119001690
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Castle201226355700000
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Garth20121121720000381
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Portfield201223200000685
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Prendergast2012000000-1
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Priory2012000000787
PembrokeshireJohnston2012000000713
PembrokeshireLetterston201233900000381
PembrokeshireLlangwm2012000000914
PembrokeshireLlanrhian2012000000-1
PembrokeshireMaenclochog201200000440672
PembrokeshireMartletwy201224200000533
PembrokeshireMerlin's Bridge201201930000386
PembrokeshireMilford: Central201200000421272
PembrokeshireMilford: East201221735300000
PembrokeshireMilford: Hakin201213600000478
PembrokeshireMilford: Hubberston201202730000292
PembrokeshireMilford: North201243900000414
PembrokeshireMilford: West201200000-10
PembrokeshireNewport201200370077437
PembrokeshireNeyland: East20120-100000
PembrokeshireNeyland: West201203450000336
PembrokeshireRudbaxton201215400000212
PembrokeshireScleddau2012255000090200
PembrokeshireSolva201201520000417
PembrokeshireSt David's20121261170000620
PembrokeshireSt Dogmaels20120000063746
PembrokeshireSt Ishmael's201218400000430
PembrokeshireThe Havens2012000000-1
PembrokeshireWiston2012-1000000

Preseli PembrokeshireTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
PembrokeshireBurton1,3750000001,0131,013
PembrokeshireCamrose1,8660000001,3741,374
PembrokeshireCilgerran1,51800000711,0471,118
PembrokeshireClydau1,075000007920792
PembrokeshireCrymych1,875000005648171,381
PembrokeshireDinas Cross1,267009330000933
PembrokeshireFishguard North East1,390230000007941,024
PembrokeshireFishguard North West1,164157454127004376857
PembrokeshireGoodwick1,5022433911950027701,106
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Castle1,757415879000001,294
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Garth2,02825238600008561,494
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Portfield1,801336000009911,327
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Prendergast1,5050000001,1091,109
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Priory1,8410000001,3561,356
PembrokeshireJohnston1,8750000001,3811,381
PembrokeshireLetterston1,731600000006751,275
PembrokeshireLlangwm1,7430000001,2841,284
PembrokeshireLlanrhian1,094000000806806
PembrokeshireMaenclochog2,329000006791,0371,716
PembrokeshireMartletwy4149500000210305
PembrokeshireMerlin's Bridge1,654040600008121,218
PembrokeshireMilford: Central1,500000006714341,105
PembrokeshireMilford: East1,606450733000001,183
PembrokeshireMilford: Hakin1,675273000009601,233
PembrokeshireMilford: Hubberston1,862066300007091,372
PembrokeshireMilford: North2,065783000007381,521
PembrokeshireMilford: West1,686000001,24201,242
PembrokeshireNewport85900420088502632
PembrokeshireNeyland: East1,62201,195000001,195
PembrokeshireNeyland: West1,642061300005971,210
PembrokeshireRudbaxton69321500000296511
PembrokeshireScleddau1,1063810000135299815
PembrokeshireSolva1,414027800007631,041
PembrokeshireSt David's1,37814813800007291,015
PembrokeshireSt Dogmaels1,69000000971,1481,245
PembrokeshireSt Ishmael's1,05523300000544777
PembrokeshireThe Havens1,144000000843843
PembrokeshireWiston1,4891,0970000001,097
 Total57,2905,9086,1361,297004,65924,20042,200

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Preseli PembrokeshireEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
PembrokeshireBurton1,405496446120013381,014
PembrokeshireCamrose1,907696568629020561,375
PembrokeshireCilgerran1,5515264292318079421,117
PembrokeshireClydau1,09827318721803038791
PembrokeshireCrymych1,9165744307200309411,381
PembrokeshireDinas Cross1,295256173437804614934
PembrokeshireFishguard North East1,4205063602540057371,025
PembrokeshireFishguard North West1,189266449621105613857
PembrokeshireGoodwick1,535372474114190115111,105
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Castle1,795471752293026131,294
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Garth2,0726476953934035451,495
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Portfield1,840685537928018511,328
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Prendergast1,5385384541132029451,109
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Priory1,881606626938029491,357
PembrokeshireJohnston1,9165846441938046511,382
PembrokeshireLetterston1,7697723352521082391,274
PembrokeshireLlangwm1,7815716091031017461,284
PembrokeshireLlanrhian1,118389311281403232806
PembrokeshireMaenclochog2,38069758911250340541,716
PembrokeshireMartletwy4231899165059305
PembrokeshireMerlin's Bridge1,690398740913024341,218
PembrokeshireMilford: Central1,5333924530350202231,105
PembrokeshireMilford: East1,641449661041012191,182
PembrokeshireMilford: Hakin1,712573542142027501,235
PembrokeshireMilford: Hubberston1,903384875061017351,372
PembrokeshireMilford: North2,11086158602906401,522
PembrokeshireMilford: West1,7233254611320401231,243
PembrokeshireNewport87826722544906324632
PembrokeshireNeyland: East1,65720995201008151,194
PembrokeshireNeyland: West1,678367751037021331,209
PembrokeshireRudbaxton7083341425110514511
PembrokeshireScleddau1,13048223214706218815
PembrokeshireSolva1,4454115062413018711,043
PembrokeshireSt David's1,4084394533912042301,015
PembrokeshireSt Dogmaels1,7275384706623098491,244
PembrokeshireSt Ishmael's1,07844227951301325777
PembrokeshireThe Havens1,1694473432140434844
PembrokeshireWiston1,521869159221030151,096
 Total57,29018,30117,9891,10585502,7101,24642,200

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Preseli Pembrokeshire

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Preseli Pembrokeshire.

Preseli PembrokeshirePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
PembrokeshireBurton1,4054654362511213371,016
PembrokeshireCamrose1,9076535547701620551,375
PembrokeshireCilgerran1,55149141824511379411,117
PembrokeshireClydau1,09824817924193038790
PembrokeshireCrymych1,91653141686116309401,381
PembrokeshireDinas Cross1,29522716443735104614933
PembrokeshireFishguard North East1,42047435026711257361,026
PembrokeshireFishguard North West1,1892394406237105612856
PembrokeshireGoodwick1,5353384631155113115111,106
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Castle1,79543173930411526131,295
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Garth2,07260168040781735441,495
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Portfield1,84064452310671518501,327
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Prendergast1,53850444312651329441,110
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Priory1,88156461210791629481,358
PembrokeshireJohnston1,91654163020791646501,382
PembrokeshireLetterston1,76973232226591582381,274
PembrokeshireLlangwm1,78153159611691517451,284
PembrokeshireLlanrhian1,1183643032839103231807
PembrokeshireMaenclochog2,380644572127620340531,717
PembrokeshireMartletwy42318088614359305
PembrokeshireMerlin's Bridge1,69036072810491424331,218
PembrokeshireMilford: Central1,53335844216813202221,106
PembrokeshireMilford: East1,6414126491761312191,182
PembrokeshireMilford: Hakin1,7125355292791427491,235
PembrokeshireMilford: Hubberston1,90334186111021617341,372
PembrokeshireMilford: North2,110814570174176391,521
PembrokeshireMilford: West1,72328644826814401231,242
PembrokeshireNewport878247219442876323631
PembrokeshireNeyland: East1,657177940142128141,194
PembrokeshireNeyland: West1,6783297391741421321,210
PembrokeshireRudbaxton7083181375266514511
PembrokeshireScleddau1,130457224143196218815
PembrokeshireSolva1,44537949525441218701,043
PembrokeshireSt David's1,40840844340421242291,016
PembrokeshireSt Dogmaels1,72749945767601498481,243
PembrokeshireSt Ishmael's1,07841827153691324776
PembrokeshireThe Havens1,16942133423910433843
PembrokeshireWiston1,52183515123321230141,097
 Total57,29016,99617,5651,1332,1044842,7101,21742,209

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)