Ribble South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Ribble South: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Seema Kennedy  (CON)
County/Area: Lancashire (North West)
Electorate: 75,752
Turnout: 72.4%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON28,98052.9%49.6%
LAB21,55939.3%38.3%
LIB2,0733.8%3.8%
UKIP1,3872.5%5.9%
Green4940.9%2.2%
OTH3410.6%0.2%
CON Majority7,42113.5%Pred Maj 11.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
70%
LAB
30%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Ribble South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Ribble South constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position5° Right6° Left
National Position9° Nat2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %59%54%52%
British Identity27%28%29%
Good Health48%46%48%
UK Born96%92%88%
Good Education41%37%39%
Good Job54%49%51%
High SEC57%48%51%
Average Age50.448.648.5
ABC1 Class57%50%53%

Ribble South ranks #180 for "Leave", #236 for "Right" and #163 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Ribble South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Ribble South: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Ribble South

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Ribble South at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Ribble South. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Ribble SouthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
ChorleyEccleston and Mawdesley20151,8561,377044200
ChorleyLostock20151,5359260000
South RibbleBroad Oak20151,8746982,230000
South RibbleBroadfield20151,1962,6650000
South RibbleBuckshaw and Worden20152,7561,816365000
South RibbleCharnock20151,4411,612181000
South RibbleEarnshaw Bridge20151,5171,639072300
South RibbleFarington East20151,3561,462328000
South RibbleHoole20151,65268017874300
South RibbleHowick and Priory20154,5041,1734,2596785600
South RibbleLeyland Central20151,5532,06030603220
South RibbleLongton and Hutton West20155,6201,7251,16981700
South RibbleMiddleforth20153,6294,96236478700
South RibbleMoss Side20152,1091,334066700
South RibbleNew Longton and Hutton East20153,3431,24440603240
South RibbleSeven Stars20151,2742,161027300
South RibbleSt Ambrose20151,2242,010454000
West LancashireHesketh-with-Becconsall20147433580000
West LancashireNorth Meols20151,026586042000
West LancashireRufford2012333111000293
West LancashireTarleton20151,73854404820422

Ribble SouthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ChorleyEccleston and Mawdesley4,6451,6821,2480400003,330
ChorleyLostock4,9352,2071,33100003,538
South RibbleBroad Oak3,3869473531,1270002,427
South RibbleBroadfield3,9478761,95300002,829
South RibbleBuckshaw and Worden3,2631,3068601730002,339
South RibbleCharnock2,8959251,0341160002,075
South RibbleEarnshaw Bridge3,8041,0661,1520508002,726
South RibbleFarington East3009310022000215
South RibbleHoole3,1961,164479125523002,291
South RibbleHowick and Priory5,6511,6334251,54424620304,051
South RibbleLeyland Central3,8391,0081,337199020902,753
South RibbleLongton and Hutton West4,4331,914587398278003,177
South RibbleMiddleforth6,0551,6172,211162351004,341
South RibbleMoss Side3,2551,1977570379002,333
South RibbleNew Longton and Hutton East3,3801,523567185014802,423
South RibbleSeven Stars3,4888591,4570184002,500
South RibbleSt Ambrose3,5248381,3773110002,526
West LancashireHesketh-with-Becconsall3,2101,55374800002,301
West LancashireNorth Meols3,2501,1766720482002,330
West LancashireRufford1,6195241750004611,160
West LancashireTarleton4,4151,727540047904193,165
 Total76,49025,83519,3634,3623,83056088054,830

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Ribble SouthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ChorleyEccleston and Mawdesley4,6001,9471,224371028123,330
ChorleyLostock4,8872,1691,23830593473,537
South RibbleBroad Oak3,3531,29678531361982,427
South RibbleBroadfield3,9099961,6854193592,829
South RibbleBuckshaw and Worden3,2321,371861927532,339
South RibbleCharnock2,8679121,0259238252,074
South RibbleEarnshaw Bridge3,7671,2471,250461677102,727
South RibbleFarington East297971058401215
South RibbleHoole3,1651,430653601261472,290
South RibbleHowick and Priory5,5962,1511,13456254134174,052
South RibbleLeyland Central3,8021,1521,33012623110122,753
South RibbleLongton and Hutton West4,3902,0438991535912103,176
South RibbleMiddleforth5,9971,7222,28615614125124,342
South RibbleMoss Side3,2241,2779362684732,333
South RibbleNew Longton and Hutton East3,3471,55166783437182,423
South RibbleSeven Stars3,4549641,39339801592,500
South RibbleSt Ambrose3,4909631,409124135122,526
West LancashireHesketh-with-Becconsall3,1791,54071710161162,300
West LancashireNorth Meols3,2191,32179353151662,330
West LancashireRufford1,6037423064130951,160
West LancashireTarleton4,3722,088862161073883,164
 Total76,49028,97921,5582,0711,38649334054,830

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Ribble South

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Ribble South.

Ribble SouthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ChorleyEccleston and Mawdesley4,6001,8401,190392084933,329
ChorleyLostock4,8872,0561,202321697723,538
South RibbleBroad Oak3,3531,218760314834922,426
South RibbleBroadfield3,9099051,656431834022,829
South RibbleBuckshaw and Worden3,2321,29683793793312,339
South RibbleCharnock2,8678451,004931032712,073
South RibbleEarnshaw Bridge3,7671,1591,222482544132,727
South RibbleFarington East2979010381130215
South RibbleHoole3,1651,357630611994222,291
South RibbleHowick and Priory5,5962,0211,09356418518544,052
South RibbleLeyland Central3,8021,0641,30212811214432,753
South RibbleLongton and Hutton West4,3901,9418671551605133,177
South RibbleMiddleforth5,9971,5832,2421582787834,342
South RibbleMoss Side3,2241,202912271563512,333
South RibbleNew Longton and Hutton East3,3471,4736428412010122,422
South RibbleSeven Stars3,4548841,368401604622,500
South RibbleSt Ambrose3,4908821,383125953732,525
West LancashireHesketh-with-Becconsall3,1791,46669411883922,300
West LancashireNorth Meols3,2191,246769542243422,329
West LancashireRufford1,60370529469833241,160
West LancashireTarleton4,3721,9868301924958223,164
 Total76,49027,21921,0002,1023,2141,2028754,824

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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