Ribble Valley: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Ribble Valley: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Nigel Evans  (CON)
County/Area: Lancashire (North West)
Electorate: 77,968
Turnout: 70.8%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON31,91957.8%53.9%
LAB18,72033.9%34.3%
LIB3,2475.9%5.9%
Green1,3142.4%2.9%
UKIP00.0%2.5%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority13,19923.9%Pred Maj 19.5%
Chance of
winning
CON
80%
LAB
20%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Ribble Valley : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Ribble Valley constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position7° Right6° Left
National Position9° Nat2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %57%54%52%
British Identity28%28%29%
Good Health50%46%48%
UK Born96%92%88%
Good Education43%37%39%
Good Job54%49%51%
High SEC57%48%51%
Average Age50.948.648.5
ABC1 Class57%50%53%

Ribble Valley ranks #232 for "Leave", #160 for "Right" and #144 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Ribble Valley: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Ribble Valley: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Ribble Valley

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Ribble Valley at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Ribble Valley. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Ribble ValleyActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Ribble ValleyAighton, Bailey and Chaigley20155932470000
Ribble ValleyAlston and Hothersall20151,5563640000
Ribble ValleyBillington and Old Langho20151,8124240000
Ribble ValleyBowland, Newton and Slaidburn20157081180000
Ribble ValleyChatburn20155881810000
Ribble ValleyChipping20156541710000
Ribble ValleyClayton-le-Dale with Ramsgreave20151,7953920000
Ribble ValleyDerby and Thornley20151,4737890000
Ribble ValleyDilworth20151,6098080000
Ribble ValleyEdisford and Low Moor2015583835678000
Ribble ValleyGisburn, Rimington20155682370000
Ribble ValleyLangho20151,5647260000
Ribble ValleyLittlemoor20154658331,114000
Ribble ValleyMellor20152,1873850000
Ribble ValleyPrimrose20153936671,283000
Ribble ValleyRead and Simonstone20151,7784110000
Ribble ValleyRibchester20156772130000
Ribble ValleySabden20154323820000
Ribble ValleySalthill20151,236449732000
Ribble ValleySt Mary's20151,286721700000
Ribble ValleyWaddington and West Bradford2015-200000
Ribble ValleyWhalley20152,7046000000
Ribble ValleyWilpshire20151,8414000000
Ribble ValleyWiswell and Pendleton20156593020000
South RibbleBamber Bridge East20151,4882,1480000
South RibbleBamber Bridge West20151,4241,9980000
South RibbleCoupe Green and Gregson Lane20152,753794005920
South RibbleFarington East20151,3561,462328000
South RibbleFarington West20151,9641,249389000
South RibbleLostock Hall20154,5393,8730000
South RibbleNew Longton and Hutton East20153,3431,24440603240
South RibbleSamlesbury and Walton20152,4821,2840000
South RibbleWalton-le-Dale East20152,0731,8430000
South RibbleWalton-le-Dale West20152,2331,6640000

Ribble ValleyTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Ribble ValleyAighton, Bailey and Chaigley1,42271229600001,008
Ribble ValleyAlston and Hothersall2,1121,21328400001,497
Ribble ValleyBillington and Old Langho2,5331,45534000001,795
Ribble ValleyBowland, Newton and Slaidburn1,1146771130000790
Ribble ValleyChatburn1,0525701760000746
Ribble ValleyChipping1,0676001570000757
Ribble ValleyClayton-le-Dale with Ramsgreave2,1641,25927500001,534
Ribble ValleyDerby and Thornley2,4021,10959400001,703
Ribble ValleyDilworth2,08798549500001,480
Ribble ValleyEdisford and Low Moor2,2174376265080001,571
Ribble ValleyGisburn, Rimington1,1365682370000805
Ribble ValleyLangho1,77986140000001,261
Ribble ValleyLittlemoor2,4113295907890001,708
Ribble ValleyMellor2,2251,34123600001,577
Ribble ValleyPrimrose2,4542924959530001,740
Ribble ValleyRead and Simonstone2,0661,19027500001,465
Ribble ValleyRibchester1,2656822150000897
Ribble ValleySabden1,1514333830000816
Ribble ValleySalthill2,4748973265310001,754
Ribble ValleySt Mary's2,3027754354220001,632
Ribble ValleyWaddington and West Bradford2,3301,652000001,652
Ribble ValleyWhalley3,1591,83340700002,240
Ribble ValleyWilpshire2,0711,20626200001,468
Ribble ValleyWiswell and Pendleton1,0475092330000742
South RibbleBamber Bridge East3,7271,0811,56100002,642
South RibbleBamber Bridge West3,4961,0311,44700002,478
South RibbleCoupe Green and Gregson Lane3,4941,6474750035402,476
South RibbleFarington East2,4197397971790001,715
South RibbleFarington West3,0861,1937592360002,188
South RibbleLostock Hall5,4052,0671,76400003,831
South RibbleNew Longton and Hutton East23610539130100167
South RibbleSamlesbury and Walton3,1791,48576800002,253
South RibbleWalton-le-Dale East3,2861,2331,09600002,329
South RibbleWalton-le-Dale West3,5051,4241,06100002,485
 Total77,87333,59017,6173,6310364055,202

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Ribble ValleyEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Ribble ValleyAighton, Bailey and Chaigley1,4246612415705001,009
Ribble ValleyAlston and Hothersall2,1151,0243787102401,497
Ribble ValleyBillington and Old Langho2,5361,2294529102401,796
Ribble ValleyBowland, Newton and Slaidburn1,11565011980130790
Ribble ValleyChatburn1,053483219250190746
Ribble ValleyChipping1,068569160110160756
Ribble ValleyClayton-le-Dale with Ramsgreave2,1671,1293413602801,534
Ribble ValleyDerby and Thornley2,40591860313604701,704
Ribble ValleyDilworth2,0909144638002301,480
Ribble ValleyEdisford and Low Moor2,22061465426304101,572
Ribble ValleyGisburn, Rimington1,137558207290100804
Ribble ValleyLangho1,7818323704501401,261
Ribble ValleyLittlemoor2,41461463540105901,709
Ribble ValleyMellor2,2281,1623463903001,577
Ribble ValleyPrimrose2,45749964953905201,739
Ribble ValleyRead and Simonstone2,0691,0993241902301,465
Ribble ValleyRibchester1,267592217610280898
Ribble ValleySabden1,152467319100200816
Ribble ValleySalthill2,47789047233206001,754
Ribble ValleySt Mary's2,30582949025705501,631
Ribble ValleyWaddington and West Bradford2,3331,4081782004701,653
Ribble ValleyWhalley3,1631,6455163104702,239
Ribble ValleyWilpshire2,0741,0803362103001,467
Ribble ValleyWiswell and Pendleton1,048496203320110742
South RibbleBamber Bridge East3,7321,1571,3776604202,642
South RibbleBamber Bridge West3,5001,0471,3524803202,479
South RibbleCoupe Green and Gregson Lane3,4981,51269148022502,476
South RibbleFarington East2,42276880711602401,715
South RibbleFarington West3,0901,21081113703002,188
South RibbleLostock Hall5,4121,8861,8057706203,830
South RibbleNew Longton and Hutton East2361074310080168
South RibbleSamlesbury and Walton3,1831,3338434503302,254
South RibbleWalton-le-Dale East3,2901,1651,0665504302,329
South RibbleWalton-le-Dale West3,5091,3741,0333204602,485
 Total77,87331,92118,7203,24801,316055,202

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Ribble Valley

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Ribble Valley.

Ribble ValleyPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Ribble ValleyAighton, Bailey and Chaigley1,42462124557255651,009
Ribble ValleyAlston and Hothersall2,11596538471383271,497
Ribble ValleyBillington and Old Langho2,5361,15845991453491,796
Ribble ValleyBowland, Newton and Slaidburn1,115619122820174790
Ribble ValleyChatburn1,0534532222519234746
Ribble ValleyChipping1,0685391631119204756
Ribble ValleyClayton-le-Dale with Ramsgreave2,1671,06834736383681,533
Ribble ValleyDerby and Thornley2,405850610136435681,703
Ribble ValleyDilworth2,09085546980373171,479
Ribble ValleyEdisford and Low Moor2,220552660263395081,572
Ribble ValleyGisburn, Rimington1,1375262102920144803
Ribble ValleyLangho1,78178237545322161,261
Ribble ValleyLittlemoor2,414546642401436881,708
Ribble ValleyMellor2,2281,09935339403981,578
Ribble ValleyPrimrose2,457430656539446291,740
Ribble ValleyRead and Simonstone2,0691,04133019373171,465
Ribble ValleyRibchester1,2675562216123334898
Ribble ValleySabden1,1524353221020244815
Ribble ValleySalthill2,477820479332447091,754
Ribble ValleySt Mary's2,305764497257416481,631
Ribble ValleyWaddington and West Bradford2,3331,34218520415681,652
Ribble ValleyWhalley3,1631,556525315659112,238
Ribble ValleyWilpshire2,0741,02234221373871,467
Ribble ValleyWiswell and Pendleton1,0484672063219154743
South RibbleBamber Bridge East3,7321,0521,388666656132,641
South RibbleBamber Bridge West3,5009491,362486246122,479
South RibbleCoupe Green and Gregson Lane3,4981,4147014862239122,476
South RibbleFarington East2,422700814116433381,714
South RibbleFarington West3,0901,1238201375542112,188
South RibbleLostock Hall5,4121,7341,821779683193,830
South RibbleNew Longton and Hutton East2361004410491168
South RibbleSamlesbury and Walton3,1831,244852455745112,254
South RibbleWalton-le-Dale East3,2901,0731,076555856112,329
South RibbleWalton-le-Dale West3,5091,2751,043326260122,484
 Total77,87329,73018,9453,2481,3851,61827155,197

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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