Richmond: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Richmond: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Rishi Sunak  (CON)
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate: 80,920
Turnout: 70.5%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON36,45863.9%60.2%
LAB13,35023.4%23.8%
LIB3,3605.9%5.9%
MIN2,1063.7%3.7%
Green1,7393.1%3.6%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority23,10840.5%Pred Maj 36.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
94%
LAB
6%
LIB
0%
MIN
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Richmond : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Richmond constituency, the 'Yorks/Humber' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatYorks/HumberAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position11° Right3° Left
National Position10° Nat6° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %55%58%52%
British Identity29%28%29%
Good Health50%46%48%
UK Born94%92%88%
Good Education42%36%39%
Good Job56%47%51%
High SEC59%46%51%
Average Age50.548.548.5
ABC1 Class57%49%53%

Richmond ranks #301 for "Leave", #82 for "Right" and #139 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Richmond: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Richmond: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Richmond

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Richmond at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Richmond. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

RichmondActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
HambletonAppleton Wiske and Smeatons20151,326218002660
HambletonBagby and Thorntons2015-100000
HambletonBedale20156,3431,27601,139679751
HambletonGreat Ayton20153,8941,284633000
HambletonHutton Rudby20151,3435660000
HambletonMorton-on-Swale20151,5804240000
HambletonNorthallerton North and Brompton20152,2221,15400424611
HambletonNorthallerton South20152,1721,393076200
HambletonOsmotherley and Swainby20151,127253000453
HambletonRomanby20153,7421,522073200
HambletonStokesley20152,7041,0462,01103550
HambletonTanfield20151,3413850000
RichmondshireAddlebrough2015555104000163
RichmondshireBarton20155051920000
RichmondshireBolton Castle20153720000449
RichmondshireBrompton-on-Swale and Scorton20151,9210005050
RichmondshireCatterick2015920000208570
RichmondshireColburn20151,3070004401,308
RichmondshireCroft2015368000100279
RichmondshireGilling West20153310000391
RichmondshireHawes and High Abbotside201500000744
RichmondshireHipswell2015650000218612
RichmondshireHornby Castle20155890002270
RichmondshireLeyburn20151,258002100522
RichmondshireLower Wensleydale20156570002240
RichmondshireMelsonby20155010000295
RichmondshireMiddleham2015-100000
RichmondshireMiddleton Tyas20154070000292
RichmondshireNewsham with Eppleby201543507700250
RichmondshirePenhill201532408400312
RichmondshireReeth and Arkengarthdale201505600116544
RichmondshireRichmond Central201582001,37302980
RichmondshireRichmond East201598002930224989
RichmondshireRichmond West2015680160001821,548
RichmondshireScotton20158260000775
RichmondshireSwaledale2015285000135238

RichmondTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
HambletonAppleton Wiske and Smeatons2,3381,1701920023501,597
HambletonBagby and Thorntons22815600000156
HambletonBedale7,5243,20064405753433795,141
HambletonGreat Ayton4,4222,0246683290003,021
HambletonHutton Rudby2,3941,15148500001,636
HambletonMorton-on-Swale2,0721,11630000001,416
HambletonNorthallerton North and Brompton4,2841,474766002814052,926
HambletonNorthallerton South5,4911,8831,2080661003,752
HambletonOsmotherley and Swainby2,3369812200003941,595
HambletonRomanby4,8142,0538350402003,290
HambletonStokesley4,7221,4265521,061018703,226
HambletonTanfield2,3381,24135600001,597
RichmondshireAddlebrough1,03347789000140706
RichmondshireBarton9504701790000649
RichmondshireBolton Castle9873060000369675
RichmondshireBrompton-on-Swale and Scorton2,3891,29200034001,632
RichmondshireCatterick2,4549080002055631,676
RichmondshireColburn3,7761,1040003721,1052,581
RichmondshireCroft99433500091254680
RichmondshireGilling West9272900000343633
RichmondshireHawes and High Abbotside1,05400000720720
RichmondshireHipswell4,3591,3080004391,2312,978
RichmondshireHornby Castle1,3906850002640949
RichmondshireLeyburn1,9908590014303571,359
RichmondshireLower Wensleydale1,1605910002020793
RichmondshireMelsonby1,1044750000280755
RichmondshireMiddleham1,00268500000685
RichmondshireMiddleton Tyas9223670000263630
RichmondshireNewsham with Eppleby1,01539607000228694
RichmondshirePenhill88427207000262604
RichmondshireReeth and Arkengarthdale95805100106497654
RichmondshireRichmond Central2,2054960830018001,506
RichmondshireRichmond East2,084561016801285661,423
RichmondshireRichmond West2,25740896001099291,542
RichmondshireScotton3,7431,31900001,2382,557
RichmondshireSwaledale850252000119210581
 Total83,45031,7316,6412,5281,7813,60110,73357,015

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

RichmondEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
HambletonAppleton Wiske and Smeatons2,2671,23624720074201,597
HambletonBagby and Thorntons221135142032156
HambletonBedale7,2963,5441,11022201361285,140
HambletonGreat Ayton4,2881,817846260057423,022
HambletonHutton Rudby2,3211,12045427017191,637
HambletonMorton-on-Swale2,0091,07126935021201,416
HambletonNorthallerton North and Brompton4,1541,5561,0681210100802,925
HambletonNorthallerton South5,3251,9491,533165057473,751
HambletonOsmotherley and Swainby2,2651,07937457026591,595
HambletonRomanby4,6682,0901,011111031463,289
HambletonStokesley4,5791,712796579098423,227
HambletonTanfield2,2671,23129026034171,598
RichmondshireAddlebrough1,0024971125401626705
RichmondshireBarton9214621323301013650
RichmondshireBolton Castle9574461203802545674
RichmondshireBrompton-on-Swale and Scorton2,3171,22628216092171,633
RichmondshireCatterick2,3801,114323270741381,676
RichmondshireColburn3,6621,5196708201191902,580
RichmondshireCroft9644651421202833680
RichmondshireGilling West899432131210545634
RichmondshireHawes and High Abbotside1,0223492223802784720
RichmondshireHipswell4,2272,02144420201361762,979
RichmondshireHornby Castle1,3487281023407611951
RichmondshireLeyburn1,93095822191037531,360
RichmondshireLower Wensleydale1,12563066180728794
RichmondshireMelsonby1,0715551391201336755
RichmondshireMiddleham97259159801710685
RichmondshireMiddleton Tyas894450114230638631
RichmondshireNewsham with Eppleby9844861164701530694
RichmondshirePenhill857375977302336604
RichmondshireReeth and Arkengarthdale9292971866404662655
RichmondshireRichmond Central2,138664271483070181,506
RichmondshireRichmond East2,021854270170053771,424
RichmondshireRichmond West2,189812473840561171,542
RichmondshireScotton3,6301,633537620362892,557
RichmondshireSwaledale8243581124203533580
 Total83,45036,46213,3533,35901,7412,10757,015

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Richmond

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Richmond.

RichmondPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
HambletonAppleton Wiske and Smeatons2,2671,176253203882271,596
HambletonBagby and Thorntons221129152443157
HambletonBedale7,2963,3511,1302221221631525,140
HambletonGreat Ayton4,2881,7038582607273563,022
HambletonHutton Rudby2,3211,058460273925271,636
HambletonMorton-on-Swale2,0091,018275353428271,417
HambletonNorthallerton North and Brompton4,1541,4461,07912170115942,925
HambletonNorthallerton South5,3251,8081,5481658976643,750
HambletonOsmotherley and Swainby2,2651,019380573834661,594
HambletonRomanby4,6681,9661,0241117848613,288
HambletonStokesley4,5791,59180957977115573,228
HambletonTanfield2,2671,171296263842241,597
RichmondshireAddlebrough1,00247011554172029705
RichmondshireBarton92143813533151316650
RichmondshireBolton Castle95742112338162848674
RichmondshireBrompton-on-Swale and Scorton2,3171,1652881639100251,633
RichmondshireCatterick2,3801,0513302740831461,677
RichmondshireColburn3,6621,42268082611322022,579
RichmondshireCroft96443914512163236680
RichmondshireGilling West8994081332115848633
RichmondshireHawes and High Abbotside1,02232222538173187720
RichmondshireHipswell4,2271,909456202711511902,979
RichmondshireHornby Castle1,34869210634238115951
RichmondshireLeyburn1,930907226913244591,359
RichmondshireLower Wensleydale1,1256006918197612794
RichmondshireMelsonby1,07152714212181740756
RichmondshireMiddleham972565628162113685
RichmondshireMiddleton Tyas8944261162315941630
RichmondshireNewsham with Eppleby98446011947171933695
RichmondshirePenhill8573529973142639603
RichmondshireReeth and Arkengarthdale92927218964164965655
RichmondshireRichmond Central2,1386072774833678251,506
RichmondshireRichmond East2,0218002761703460841,424
RichmondshireRichmond West2,1897544798437641241,542
RichmondshireScotton3,6301,5375476261493012,557
RichmondshireSwaledale82433611442143836580
 Total83,45034,31613,5783,3591,3582,0342,37257,017

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)