Rossendale and Darwen: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Rossendale and Darwen: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Jake Berry  (CON)
County/Area: Lancashire (North West)
Electorate: 72,495
Turnout: 69.2%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON25,49950.8%47.6%
LAB22,28344.4%43.5%
LIB1,5503.1%3.1%
Green8241.6%2.8%
UKIP00.0%3.0%
CON Majority3,2166.4%Pred Maj 4.1%
Chance of
winning
CON
57%
LAB
43%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%

Rossendale and Darwen : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Rossendale and Darwen constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position5° Right6° Left
National Position8° Nat2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %58%54%52%
British Identity25%28%29%
Good Health47%46%48%
UK Born96%92%88%
Good Education38%37%39%
Good Job50%49%51%
High SEC49%48%51%
Average Age48.848.648.5
ABC1 Class49%50%53%

Rossendale and Darwen ranks #200 for "Leave", #238 for "Right" and #170 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Rossendale and Darwen: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Rossendale and Darwen: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Rossendale and Darwen

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Rossendale and Darwen at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Rossendale and Darwen. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Rossendale and DarwenActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Blackburn with DarwenEarcroft201554877712132400
Blackburn with DarwenEast Rural2014354116000282
Blackburn with DarwenFernhurst20151,469890055900
Blackburn with DarwenMarsh House20151,2081,07121951100
Blackburn with DarwenNorth Turton with Tockholes20151,7699520000
Blackburn with DarwenSudell201543693582942600
Blackburn with DarwenSunnyhurst20159721,48016541300
Blackburn with DarwenWhitehall201423716266824500
RossendaleCribden201583682802681080
RossendaleEden2014655322001320
RossendaleFacit and Shawforth201560256504360207
RossendaleGoodshaw2014350624026200
RossendaleGreensclough20151,0841,074064100
RossendaleHareholme20151,0181,209069000
RossendaleHealey and Whitworth201550962703500418
RossendaleHelmshore20151,8941,04904231750
RossendaleIrwell20151,7571,68706081970
RossendaleLongholme20151,0821,14205091620
RossendaleStacksteads2015495919034300
RossendaleWhitewell20151,6071,7366116153080

Rossendale and DarwenTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Blackburn with DarwenEarcroft3,8307081,004156419002,287
Blackburn with DarwenEast Rural1,668469154000373996
Blackburn with DarwenFernhurst5,0921,5309270582003,039
Blackburn with DarwenMarsh House5,6341,3501,197245571003,363
Blackburn with DarwenNorth Turton with Tockholes3,7621,46078600002,246
Blackburn with DarwenSudell6,0295981,2821,136584003,600
Blackburn with DarwenSunnyhurst5,3461,0241,559174435003,192
Blackburn with DarwenWhitehall3,5933872651,092401002,145
RossendaleCribden3,295806798025810401,966
RossendaleEden3,0521,0765290021701,822
RossendaleFacit and Shawforth3,076611573044202101,836
RossendaleGoodshaw3,5586021,0720450002,124
RossendaleGreensclough5,0301,1631,1520688003,003
RossendaleHareholme4,6149611,1420652002,755
RossendaleHealey and Whitworth3,464553681038004542,068
RossendaleHelmshore5,1351,640908036615203,066
RossendaleIrwell4,7771,1791,132040813202,851
RossendaleLongholme4,7801,0671,126050216002,855
RossendaleStacksteads3,3295601,0400388001,988
RossendaleWhitewell4,9479731,05137037218702,953
 Total84,01118,71718,3783,1737,8989521,03750,155

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Rossendale and DarwenEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Blackburn with DarwenEarcroft3,3051,0011,2204402102,286
Blackburn with DarwenEast Rural1,4396583277030995
Blackburn with DarwenFernhurst4,3941,8351,1394601903,039
Blackburn with DarwenMarsh House4,8621,6861,55810501403,363
Blackburn with DarwenNorth Turton with Tockholes3,2461,4967052701802,246
Blackburn with DarwenSudell5,2031,3931,87031801803,599
Blackburn with DarwenSunnyhurst4,6131,3931,66911901103,192
Blackburn with DarwenWhitehall3,1001,0737732910802,145
RossendaleCribden2,8431,0248294806501,966
RossendaleEden2,6341,06058748012801,823
RossendaleFacit and Shawforth2,6549667995501501,835
RossendaleGoodshaw3,0701,0639875302102,124
RossendaleGreensclough4,3411,5851,3442205203,003
RossendaleHareholme3,9821,3261,3377901302,755
RossendaleHealey and Whitworth2,9891,0579663001502,068
RossendaleHelmshore4,4311,8251,0964609903,066
RossendaleIrwell4,1221,4071,372806302,850
RossendaleLongholme4,1251,4181,27058010802,854
RossendaleStacksteads2,8738371,1231501301,988
RossendaleWhitewell4,2691,3941,310129012002,953
 Total84,01125,49722,2811,5480824050,155

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Rossendale and Darwen

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Rossendale and Darwen.

Rossendale and DarwenPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Blackburn with DarwenEarcroft3,3059271,19845694702,286
Blackburn with DarwenEast Rural1,439626317830140995
Blackburn with DarwenFernhurst4,3941,7361,11048925303,039
Blackburn with DarwenMarsh House4,8621,5771,5251071025203,363
Blackburn with DarwenNorth Turton with Tockholes3,2461,42368328684302,245
Blackburn with DarwenSudell5,2031,2761,8353201095903,599
Blackburn with DarwenSunnyhurst4,6131,2891,638121974703,192
Blackburn with DarwenWhitehall3,1001,003752292653202,144
RossendaleCribden2,84396081049608701,966
RossendaleEden2,6341,001569495514901,823
RossendaleFacit and Shawforth2,65490678156563601,835
RossendaleGoodshaw3,07099496654654502,124
RossendaleGreensclough4,3411,4871,31524918603,003
RossendaleHareholme3,9821,2361,31080844402,754
RossendaleHealey and Whitworth2,98999094631633802,068
RossendaleHelmshore4,4311,7251,066489313403,066
RossendaleIrwell4,1221,3141,34410879502,850
RossendaleLongholme4,1251,3251,242608714002,854
RossendaleStacksteads2,8737721,10416603501,987
RossendaleWhitewell4,2691,2981,2811319015302,953
 Total84,01123,86521,7921,5771,5231,389050,146

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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