Rutland and Melton: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Rutland and Melton: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Alan Duncan  (CON)
County/Area: Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 78,463
Turnout: 73.4%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON36,16962.8%59.8%
LAB13,06522.7%21.7%
LIB4,7118.2%8.2%
UKIP1,8693.2%6.1%
Green1,7553.0%4.2%
CON Majority23,10440.1%Pred Maj 38.1%
Chance of
winning
CON
95%
LAB
5%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%

Rutland and Melton : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Rutland and Melton constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position11° Right3° Right
National Position9° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %54%59%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health49%45%48%
UK Born94%91%88%
Good Education42%36%39%
Good Job54%48%51%
High SEC58%47%51%
Average Age51.649.148.5
ABC1 Class58%50%53%

Rutland and Melton ranks #321 for "Leave", #80 for "Right" and #140 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Rutland and Melton: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Rutland and Melton: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Rutland and Melton

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Rutland and Melton at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Rutland and Melton. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Rutland and MeltonActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
HarboroughBillesdon2015-100000
HarboroughNevill20151,0450328000
HarboroughThurnby and Houghton20151,38306,7938310215
HarboroughTilton20158430401000
MeltonAsfordby20151,6400064500
MeltonBottesford2015-200000
MeltonCroxton Kerrial2015-100000
MeltonFrisby-on-the-Wreake2015-100000
MeltonGaddesby2015-100000
MeltonLong Clawson and Stathern2015-200000
MeltonMelton Craven20151,38250004640369
MeltonMelton Dorian20153,4062,022000642
MeltonMelton Egerton20151,1151,028000553
MeltonMelton Newport20153,706882078700
MeltonMelton Sysonby20152,92870806440892
MeltonMelton Warwick20151,15243704010522
MeltonOld Dalby2015-100000
MeltonSomerby2015-100000
MeltonWaltham-on-the-Wolds20152770000659
MeltonWymondham2015-100000
RutlandBraunston and Belton2015-100000
RutlandCottesmore20151,4200049200
RutlandExton201544901621250111
RutlandGreetham2015-100000
RutlandKetton20151,795048230200
RutlandLangham2015386030100113
RutlandLyddington2015-100000
RutlandMartinsthorpe20154640000263
RutlandNormanton20151,020084439900
RutlandOakham North East201500000-2
RutlandOakham North West20157410546001,607
RutlandOakham South East20151,0940327001,041
RutlandOakham South West20151,15800001,188
RutlandRyhall and Casterton20151,3890000739
RutlandUppingham20152,0031,00304760882
RutlandWhissendine20152650511000

Rutland and MeltonTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
HarboroughBillesdon1,4601,053000001,053
HarboroughNevill1,8291,00403150001,319
HarboroughThurnby and Houghton5,57560302,9633620944,022
HarboroughTilton1,61278803750001,163
MeltonAsfordby2,5951,34400529001,873
MeltonBottesford2,8422,051000002,051
MeltonCroxton Kerrial1,4011,011000001,011
MeltonFrisby-on-the-Wreake1,3961,007000001,007
MeltonGaddesby1,35998100000981
MeltonLong Clawson and Stathern3,3282,401000002,401
MeltonMelton Craven2,7881,024370034402732,011
MeltonMelton Dorian4,2511,7211,0220003243,067
MeltonMelton Egerton3,1599438690004682,280
MeltonMelton Newport4,0141,9974750424002,896
MeltonMelton Sysonby4,3941,795434039505473,171
MeltonMelton Warwick2,848942357032804272,054
MeltonOld Dalby1,5611,126000001,126
MeltonSomerby1,38499900000999
MeltonWaltham-on-the-Wolds1,2682710000644915
MeltonWymondham1,19586200000862
RutlandBraunston and Belton1,02173700000737
RutlandCottesmore2,0881,11900388001,507
RutlandExton1,10942401531180105800
RutlandGreetham1,6401,183000001,183
RutlandKetton2,2251,1170300188001,605
RutlandLangham1,071373029100109773
RutlandLyddington1,00872700000727
RutlandMartinsthorpe8914100000233643
RutlandNormanton2,7118820730345001,957
RutlandOakham North East2,436000001,7581,758
RutlandOakham North West2,5594730348001,0251,846
RutlandOakham South East2,0236490194006171,460
RutlandOakham South West1,77563200006491,281
RutlandRyhall and Casterton2,2261,04800005581,606
RutlandUppingham3,7421,239621029405462,700
RutlandWhissendine1,0042470477000724
 Total79,78835,1834,1486,1463,71508,37757,569

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Rutland and MeltonEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
HarboroughBillesdon1,436929653152301,053
HarboroughNevill1,79995715516524001,319
HarboroughThurnby and Houghton5,4821,5968601,29414412904,023
HarboroughTilton1,5858369121361601,162
MeltonAsfordby2,5521,133435881823401,872
MeltonBottesford2,7951,70025742371602,052
MeltonCroxton Kerrial1,37883910833171401,011
MeltonFrisby-on-the-Wreake1,37389772257601,007
MeltonGaddesby1,33684591231560980
MeltonLong Clawson and Stathern3,2731,98629675182702,402
MeltonMelton Craven2,7421,0346351031588202,012
MeltonMelton Dorian4,1801,6721,15688925903,067
MeltonMelton Egerton3,1071,0141,05292517202,281
MeltonMelton Newport3,9471,8037631171743802,895
MeltonMelton Sysonby4,3211,8061,0031011738703,170
MeltonMelton Warwick2,8011,022785621137302,055
MeltonOld Dalby1,5359878024231201,126
MeltonSomerby1,361873602613270999
MeltonWaltham-on-the-Wolds1,2474823253016610914
MeltonWymondham1,17575363169220863
RutlandBraunston and Belton1,00464846321100737
RutlandCottesmore2,0531,152138601213601,507
RutlandExton1,0914981478532380800
RutlandGreetham1,6131,007696436801,184
RutlandKetton2,1881,142222160552601,605
RutlandLangham1,05345216212017210772
RutlandLyddington99162279132110727
RutlandMartinsthorpe876420167262280643
RutlandNormanton2,6661,1662743571075301,957
RutlandOakham North East2,3965987961692517001,758
RutlandOakham North West2,5177696592395912101,847
RutlandOakham South East1,98989734115186301,460
RutlandOakham South West1,74672138858338101,281
RutlandRyhall and Casterton2,1891,081345101196001,606
RutlandUppingham3,6801,4567871979616402,700
RutlandWhissendine987380942291200724
 Total79,78836,17313,0664,7091,8691,754057,569

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Rutland and Melton

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Rutland and Melton.

Rutland and MeltonPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
HarboroughBillesdon1,4368976131303301,052
HarboroughNevill1,799917145166375401,319
HarboroughThurnby and Houghton5,4821,4758101,29626617604,023
HarboroughTilton1,58580185214352701,162
MeltonAsfordby2,5521,077412892395601,873
MeltonBottesford2,7951,63824143923702,051
MeltonCroxton Kerrial1,37880910133432401,010
MeltonFrisby-on-the-Wreake1,3738676825321601,008
MeltonGaddesby1,336815852340160979
MeltonLong Clawson and Stathern3,2731,91427876835202,403
MeltonMelton Craven2,74297361010421910602,012
MeltonMelton Dorian4,1801,5801,118901859503,068
MeltonMelton Egerton3,1079451,024931209902,281
MeltonMelton Newport3,9471,7167271192627202,896
MeltonMelton Sysonby4,3211,71096410326912403,170
MeltonMelton Warwick2,801960759631759702,054
MeltonOld Dalby1,5359537525512301,127
MeltonSomerby1,361843562637360998
MeltonWaltham-on-the-Wolds1,2474543143144720915
MeltonWymondham1,175727591630300862
RutlandBraunston and Belton1,004626433219170737
RutlandCottesmore2,0531,107129611595101,507
RutlandExton1,0914741388556470800
RutlandGreetham1,6139716565641901,184
RutlandKetton2,1881,094208161994301,605
RutlandLangham1,05342915212040300771
RutlandLyddington991600741321180726
RutlandMartinsthorpe8764011592621360643
RutlandNormanton2,6661,1072573581617401,957
RutlandOakham North East2,3965457741707819101,758
RutlandOakham North West2,51771363624011514301,847
RutlandOakham South East1,989853323152528001,460
RutlandOakham South West1,74668237259729601,281
RutlandRyhall and Casterton2,1891,033325102687901,607
RutlandUppingham3,6801,37575319817819602,700
RutlandWhissendine9873588822921280724
 Total79,78834,43912,4884,7373,5132,393057,570

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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