Saffron Walden: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Saffron Walden: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Kemi Badenoch  (CON)
County/Area: Essex (Anglia)
Electorate: 83,690
Turnout: 72.8%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON37,62961.8%58.0%
LAB12,66320.8%21.2%
LIB8,52814.0%14.0%
UKIP2,0913.4%5.8%
Green00.0%0.5%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority24,96641.0%Pred Maj 36.9%
Chance of
winning
CON
95%
LAB
5%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Saffron Walden : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Saffron Walden constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position12° Right8° Right
National Position8° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %51%57%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health52%47%48%
UK Born93%89%88%
Good Education43%37%39%
Good Job60%53%51%
High SEC63%53%51%
Average Age50.749.448.5
ABC1 Class65%55%53%

Saffron Walden ranks #375 for "Leave", #65 for "Right" and #175 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Saffron Walden: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Saffron Walden: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Saffron Walden

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Saffron Walden at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Saffron Walden. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Saffron WaldenActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
ChelmsfordBoreham and The Leighs20153,745489840000
ChelmsfordBroomfield and The Walthams20155,9741,2631,4252,6958440
ChelmsfordChelmsford Rural West20151,294175188000
ChelmsfordWrittle20152,93601,60355100
UttlesfordAshdon2015575001250533
UttlesfordBroad Oak and the Hallingburys20152,1922732235860360
UttlesfordClavering2015871012600417
UttlesfordDebden and Wimbish201563111110300338
UttlesfordElsenham and Henham20158992121,92100590
UttlesfordFelsted and Stebbing20152,0684093116620838
UttlesfordFlitch Green and Little Dunmow20157271126600243
UttlesfordGreat Dunmow North20151,732249182001,468
UttlesfordGreat Dunmow South and Barnston20154,049698344002,927
UttlesfordHatfield Heath201557106700599
UttlesfordHigh Easter and The Rodings2015974013500205
UttlesfordLittlebury, Chesterford and Wenden Lofts20152,0042950002,437
UttlesfordNewport20151,2250285002,032
UttlesfordSaffron Walden Audley20151,30834198201791,695
UttlesfordSaffron Walden Castle20151,17657323318801,649
UttlesfordSaffron Walden Shire20153,05285845304744,539
UttlesfordStansted North20151,7593102,228000
UttlesfordStansted South and Birchanger20151,5842651,1970154366
UttlesfordStort Valley20155510639000
UttlesfordTakeley20153,74642638077001,781
UttlesfordThaxted and the Eastons20152,0953882,025000
UttlesfordThe Sampfords201581412410000274

Saffron WaldenTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ChelmsfordBoreham and The Leighs4,9942,7853646250003,774
ChelmsfordBroomfield and The Walthams6,3562,3514975611,06133204,802
ChelmsfordChelmsford Rural West2,1761,2841741870001,645
ChelmsfordWrittle4,2671,86001,015349003,224
UttlesfordAshdon1,5605500011905101,179
UttlesfordBroad Oak and the Hallingburys3,1471,43417914638302362,378
UttlesfordClavering1,7198000116003831,299
UttlesfordDebden and Wimbish1,907769135125004121,441
UttlesfordElsenham and Henham2,8555351261,144003512,156
UttlesfordFelsted and Stebbing3,4431,25524818940205082,602
UttlesfordFlitch Green and Little Dunmow1,97594514686003161,493
UttlesfordGreat Dunmow North3,0821,111160117009412,329
UttlesfordGreat Dunmow South and Barnston4,6461,773306151001,2823,512
UttlesfordHatfield Heath1,739607071006361,314
UttlesfordHigh Easter and The Rodings1,8051,0110140002131,364
UttlesfordLittlebury, Chesterford and Wenden Lofts3,3251,0631560001,2932,512
UttlesfordNewport2,7357150166001,1862,067
UttlesfordSaffron Walden Audley3,65080120960101101,0382,759
UttlesfordSaffron Walden Castle3,07571534914211401,0032,323
UttlesfordSaffron Walden Shire5,3591,31837119602051,9604,050
UttlesfordStansted North3,2611,0091781,2780002,465
UttlesfordStansted South and Birchanger2,7349181546930892122,066
UttlesfordStort Valley1,57955206410001,193
UttlesfordTakeley3,8731,54317615731707342,927
UttlesfordThaxted and the Eastons3,6261,2732361,2310002,740
UttlesfordThe Sampfords1,72680912399002721,303
 Total80,61429,7864,2879,8772,74573613,48660,917

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Saffron WaldenEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ChelmsfordBoreham and The Leighs5,1852,53255360187003,773
ChelmsfordBroomfield and The Walthams6,5992,6941,039576495004,804
ChelmsfordChelmsford Rural West2,2591,18224317345001,643
ChelmsfordWrittle4,4301,877427737182003,223
UttlesfordAshdon1,6208022725550001,179
UttlesfordBroad Oak and the Hallingburys3,2671,641350190196002,377
UttlesfordClavering1,78595916815914001,300
UttlesfordDebden and Wimbish1,9801,0442461438001,441
UttlesfordElsenham and Henham2,9641,08737664846002,157
UttlesfordFelsted and Stebbing3,5741,686480235200002,601
UttlesfordFlitch Green and Little Dunmow2,0501,06428010246001,492
UttlesfordGreat Dunmow North3,2001,50657915787002,329
UttlesfordGreat Dunmow South and Barnston4,8232,27684230092003,510
UttlesfordHatfield Heath1,8059592517925001,314
UttlesfordHigh Easter and The Rodings1,8741,04516812526001,364
UttlesfordLittlebury, Chesterford and Wenden Lofts3,4521,6387141519002,512
UttlesfordNewport2,8391,29549024932002,066
UttlesfordSaffron Walden Audley3,7891,46377250717002,759
UttlesfordSaffron Walden Castle3,1921,15482029159002,324
UttlesfordSaffron Walden Shire5,5632,2171,25853242004,049
UttlesfordStansted North3,3851,28745370915002,464
UttlesfordStansted South and Birchanger2,8381,08548643362002,066
UttlesfordStort Valley1,6396891343645001,192
UttlesfordTakeley4,0211,897625203201002,926
UttlesfordThaxted and the Eastons3,7641,61241167443002,740
UttlesfordThe Sampfords1,7929382261335001,302
 Total80,61437,62912,6638,5262,0890060,917

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Saffron Walden

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Saffron Walden.

Saffron WaldenPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ChelmsfordBoreham and The Leighs5,1852,39156860117619183,773
ChelmsfordBroomfield and The Walthams6,5992,5141,05857660925224,804
ChelmsfordChelmsford Rural West2,2591,12124917384881,643
ChelmsfordWrittle4,4301,75644073725817153,223
UttlesfordAshdon1,6207582775578651,179
UttlesfordBroad Oak and the Hallingburys3,2671,55235919025212112,376
UttlesfordClavering1,78591017315945761,300
UttlesfordDebden and Wimbish1,98099025214342771,441
UttlesfordElsenham and Henham2,9641,0063846489711102,156
UttlesfordFelsted and Stebbing3,5741,58949023526213122,601
UttlesfordFlitch Green and Little Dunmow2,0501,00828610281871,492
UttlesfordGreat Dunmow North3,2001,41958815714212112,329
UttlesfordGreat Dunmow South and Barnston4,8232,14585630017518163,510
UttlesfordHatfield Heath1,8059102567956761,314
UttlesfordHigh Easter and The Rodings1,87499417312558761,363
UttlesfordLittlebury, Chesterford and Wenden Lofts3,4521,5447241516813122,512
UttlesfordNewport2,8391,2184982498111102,067
UttlesfordSaffron Walden Audley3,7891,3607835078214132,759
UttlesfordSaffron Walden Castle3,1921,06782929111412112,324
UttlesfordSaffron Walden Shire5,5632,0661,27453213821194,050
UttlesfordStansted North3,3851,1954637097313112,464
UttlesfordStansted South and Birchanger2,8381,00849443311111102,067
UttlesfordStort Valley1,63964413936433661,192
UttlesfordTakeley4,0211,78863620327015142,926
UttlesfordThaxted and the Eastons3,7641,50942267410814132,740
UttlesfordThe Sampfords1,79288923113336761,302
 Total80,61435,35112,9028,5263,52931428560,907

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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