Salisbury: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Salisbury: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: John Glen  (CON)
County/Area: Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate: 72,892
Turnout: 73.1%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON30,95258.1%55.0%
LAB13,61925.5%24.4%
LIB5,98211.2%11.3%
UKIP1,1912.2%5.6%
Green1,1522.2%3.5%
OTH4150.8%0.2%
CON Majority17,33332.5%Pred Maj 30.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
91%
LAB
8%
LIB
1%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Salisbury : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Salisbury constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position5° Right1° Right
National Position1° Nat1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %50%53%52%
British Identity30%27%29%
Good Health49%47%48%
UK Born92%92%88%
Good Education45%40%39%
Good Job55%50%51%
High SEC59%52%51%
Average Age51.350.548.5
ABC1 Class59%54%53%

Salisbury ranks #402 for "Leave", #240 for "Right" and #345 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Salisbury: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Salisbury: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Salisbury

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Salisbury at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Salisbury. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

SalisburyActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
WiltshireAlderbury and Whiteparish2013699140000396
WiltshireAmesbury East2013446130042200
WiltshireAmesbury West201343213203790229
WiltshireBourne and Woodford Valley20138393280000
WiltshireBulford, Allington and Figheldean20134410000435
WiltshireDownton and Ebble Valley20138880054200
WiltshireFovant and Chalke Valley2013-100000
WiltshireLaverstock, Ford and Old Sarum20132747990000
WiltshireNadder and East Knoyle2013831178032100
WiltshireRedlynch and Landford2013724190032200
WiltshireSalisbury Bemerton2013181559023500
WiltshireSalisbury Fisherton and Bemerton Village2013387388288000
WiltshireSalisbury Harnham201346710170319900
WiltshireSalisbury St Edmund and Milford2013281177526148920
WiltshireSalisbury St Francis and Stratford201382530621401810
WiltshireSalisbury St Mark's and Bishopdown2013614285171000
WiltshireSalisbury St Martin's and Cathedral20135246931072561000
WiltshireSalisbury St Paul's2013378319830172195
WiltshireTill and Wylye Valley201364584895000
WiltshireWilton and Lower Wylye Valley2013417115706000
WiltshireWinterslow2013-100000

SalisburyTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
WiltshireAlderbury and Whiteparish3,2291,4002800007932,473
WiltshireAmesbury East4,6091,57846001,493003,531
WiltshireAmesbury West3,5581,005307088105332,726
WiltshireBourne and Woodford Valley3,2561,79370100002,494
WiltshireBulford, Allington and Figheldean7913050000301606
WiltshireDownton and Ebble Valley3,7441,781001,087002,868
WiltshireFovant and Chalke Valley1,8741,436000001,436
WiltshireLaverstock, Ford and Old Sarum3,1206101,78000002,390
WiltshireNadder and East Knoyle11957120220091
WiltshireRedlynch and Landford3,5871,6104220716002,748
WiltshireSalisbury Bemerton4,8306872,1210892003,700
WiltshireSalisbury Fisherton and Bemerton Village3,4039499527060002,607
WiltshireSalisbury Harnham3,8479362021,409399002,946
WiltshireSalisbury St Edmund and Milford3,9476944371,29936622703,023
WiltshireSalisbury St Francis and Stratford3,9751,646611427036103,045
WiltshireSalisbury St Mark's and Bishopdown3,5441,5587234340002,715
WiltshireSalisbury St Martin's and Cathedral4,4531,0641,40721752020303,411
WiltshireSalisbury St Paul's3,75594880020804314892,876
WiltshireTill and Wylye Valley3,4141,0391351,4410002,615
WiltshireWilton and Lower Wylye Valley3,6609442601,5990002,803
WiltshireWinterslow2,8772,204000002,204
 Total69,59224,24411,6107,7406,3761,2222,11653,308

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

SalisburyEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
WiltshireAlderbury and Whiteparish3,3821,766434168415882,475
WiltshireAmesbury East4,8282,43969215421114213,531
WiltshireAmesbury West3,7271,7535731271949702,726
WiltshireBourne and Woodford Valley3,4101,750573100402562,494
WiltshireBulford, Allington and Figheldean829438971811734605
WiltshireDownton and Ebble Valley3,9222,09646615912314102,868
WiltshireFovant and Chalke Valley1,9631,2341543311121,435
WiltshireLaverstock, Ford and Old Sarum3,2681,0441,1851082813122,390
WiltshireNadder and East Knoyle1256617422091
WiltshireRedlynch and Landford3,7571,964525130893462,748
WiltshireSalisbury Bemerton5,0591,3301,95020716727193,700
WiltshireSalisbury Fisherton and Bemerton Village3,5641,1419374455520102,608
WiltshireSalisbury Harnham4,0291,553531742773682,947
WiltshireSalisbury St Edmund and Milford4,1341,3917206993916593,023
WiltshireSalisbury St Francis and Stratford4,1631,719718380821373,045
WiltshireSalisbury St Mark's and Bishopdown3,7121,578778321161472,714
WiltshireSalisbury St Martin's and Cathedral4,6641,6361,23330554170133,411
WiltshireSalisbury St Paul's3,9331,30295228123254652,877
WiltshireTill and Wylye Valley3,5761,5613196741237132,616
WiltshireWilton and Lower Wylye Valley3,8341,353514842315772,804
WiltshireWinterslow3,0131,83725186615102,205
 Total69,59230,95113,6195,9831,1911,15241753,308

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Salisbury

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Salisbury.

SalisburyPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
WiltshireAlderbury and Whiteparish3,3821,69140817012361222,475
WiltshireAmesbury East4,8282,3326511563285953,531
WiltshireAmesbury West3,7271,67054012931355182,725
WiltshireBourne and Woodford Valley3,4101,6745431011185522,493
WiltshireBulford, Allington and Figheldean829420911946219606
WiltshireDownton and Ebble Valley3,9222,0094381612104832,869
WiltshireFovant and Chalke Valley1,9631,19014534402611,436
WiltshireLaverstock, Ford and Old Sarum3,2689711,1561091064332,388
WiltshireNadder and East Knoyle1256316453091
WiltshireRedlynch and Landford3,7571,8814941321746722,750
WiltshireSalisbury Bemerton5,0591,2181,9062092887453,700
WiltshireSalisbury Fisherton and Bemerton Village3,5641,0629064471395232,609
WiltshireSalisbury Harnham4,0291,4644997441677122,947
WiltshireSalisbury St Edmund and Milford4,1341,29968470113520223,023
WiltshireSalisbury St Francis and Stratford4,1631,62768238210325023,046
WiltshireSalisbury St Mark's and Bishopdown3,7121,4967463231014722,715
WiltshireSalisbury St Martin's and Cathedral4,6641,5321,19230716421233,410
WiltshireSalisbury St Paul's3,9331,215918283144301162,877
WiltshireTill and Wylye Valley3,5761,482300675896732,616
WiltshireWilton and Lower Wylye Valley3,8341,2684838441179022,804
WiltshireWinterslow3,0131,77023687704032,206
 Total69,59229,33413,0346,0172,9801,84410853,317

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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