Scarborough and Whitby: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Scarborough and Whitby: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Robert Goodwill  (CON)
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate: 73,593
Turnout: 68.6%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON24,40148.4%45.3%
LAB20,96641.6%40.6%
UKIP1,6823.3%6.6%
LIB1,3542.7%2.7%
Green9151.8%3.0%
MIN6801.3%1.3%
OTH4510.9%0.4%
CON Majority3,4356.8%Pred Maj 4.7%
Chance of
winning
CON
59%
LAB
42%
UKIP
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
MIN
0%
OTH
0%

Scarborough and Whitby : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Scarborough and Whitby constituency, the 'Yorks/Humber' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatYorks/HumberAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position3° Right3° Left
National Position10° Nat6° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %61%58%52%
British Identity26%28%29%
Good Health42%46%48%
UK Born95%92%88%
Good Education35%36%39%
Good Job42%47%51%
High SEC43%46%51%
Average Age52.248.548.5
ABC1 Class43%49%53%

Scarborough and Whitby ranks #137 for "Leave", #267 for "Right" and #130 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Scarborough and Whitby: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Scarborough and Whitby: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Scarborough and Whitby

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Scarborough and Whitby at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Scarborough and Whitby. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Scarborough and WhitbyActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
ScarboroughCastle20153276280402380872
ScarboroughCayton20152,154745067300
ScarboroughCentral20153401,2961946762340
ScarboroughDanby2015686207631451450
ScarboroughDerwent Valley20152,30858145456900
ScarboroughEastfield20153491,8722191,6211180
ScarboroughEsk Valley20152,3231,010078100
ScarboroughFalsgrave Park201501,352250943291500
ScarboroughFylingdales20156302770218860
ScarboroughLindhead20159643400000
ScarboroughMayfield20151,889961066800
ScarboroughMulgrave20151,3536620410212682
ScarboroughNewby20153,0551,1025031,859686403
ScarboroughNorth Bay20159057260869340210
ScarboroughNorthstead20155867482639600550
ScarboroughRamshill20158597731968125500
ScarboroughScalby, Hackness and Staintondale20152,40249506313870
ScarboroughSeamer20151,16209029063730
ScarboroughStepney20156408901665421,0610
ScarboroughStreonshalh20159761,15005502140
ScarboroughWeaponness20151,4205283167193600
ScarboroughWhitby West Cliff20151,5541,202050500
ScarboroughWoodlands2015425648110752202565

Scarborough and WhitbyTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ScarboroughCastle3,60031059503813608262,472
ScarboroughCayton3,1191,2914460403002,140
ScarboroughCentral3,8683291,25618865522702,655
ScarboroughDanby1,5665921795412512501,075
ScarboroughDerwent Valley3,3911,373346270338002,327
ScarboroughEastfield4,2352431,3021521,1278202,906
ScarboroughEsk Valley3,2111,2445410418002,203
ScarboroughFalsgrave Park3,62001,0071867022173722,484
ScarboroughFylingdales1,62157925402007901,112
ScarboroughLindhead1,66484429800001,142
ScarboroughMayfield3,5141,2956590458002,412
ScarboroughMulgrave2,56771835102181133621,762
ScarboroughNewby4,8621,3404832218153011773,337
ScarboroughNorth Bay3,62373859207082771712,486
ScarboroughNorthstead3,05539550517764803712,096
ScarboroughRamshill3,34861955714158539602,298
ScarboroughScalby, Hackness and Staintondale2,9311,234254032419902,011
ScarboroughSeamer3,517839065165426902,413
ScarboroughStepney3,38445162711738274702,324
ScarboroughStreonshalh3,470804948045317602,381
ScarboroughWeaponness2,89184331318842721401,985
ScarboroughWhitby West Cliff2,9769737530316002,042
ScarboroughWoodlands3,478375572976641784992,385
 Total73,51117,42912,8382,44211,0013,9602,77850,448

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Scarborough and WhitbyEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ScarboroughCastle3,6049711,127763882152,471
ScarboroughCayton3,1221,28973210914162,142
ScarboroughCentral3,8729301,4281149049432,654
ScarboroughDanby1,568669314171547141,076
ScarboroughDerwent Valley3,3951,495649126336192,328
ScarboroughEastfield4,2408351,7956017227172,906
ScarboroughEsk Valley3,2151,355718384817272,203
ScarboroughFalsgrave Park3,6247201,45076107321002,485
ScarboroughFylingdales1,623695332252620131,111
ScarboroughLindhead1,66674434426106121,142
ScarboroughMayfield3,5181,31795321955212,412
ScarboroughMulgrave2,570922663134325971,763
ScarboroughNewby4,8671,7461,21610912372723,338
ScarboroughNorth Bay3,6271,1521,099169651742,488
ScarboroughNorthstead3,0588989091057016982,096
ScarboroughRamshill3,3529701,0249464116292,297
ScarboroughScalby, Hackness and Staintondale2,9341,373478613639242,011
ScarboroughSeamer3,5211,35569219610240282,413
ScarboroughStepney3,3889501,1425749108172,323
ScarboroughStreonshalh3,4749911,23739534212,381
ScarboroughWeaponness2,8941,123606868062261,983
ScarboroughWhitby West Cliff2,9791,041844466521262,043
ScarboroughWoodlands3,4828611,21448111301232,387
 Total73,51124,40220,9661,3541,6849151,13250,448

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Scarborough and Whitby

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Scarborough and Whitby.

Scarborough and WhitbyPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ScarboroughCastle3,6048951,10391701281672,472
ScarboroughCayton3,1221,2237111115628132,142
ScarboroughCentral3,8728481,40311517279372,654
ScarboroughDanby1,568636304184759131,077
ScarboroughDerwent Valley3,3951,42362712710432152,328
ScarboroughEastfield4,2407451,7676226060122,906
ScarboroughEsk Valley3,2151,2876973911542222,202
ScarboroughFalsgrave Park3,6246431,4267819665772,485
ScarboroughFylingdales1,623661321266033111,112
ScarboroughLindhead1,66670933327461991,143
ScarboroughMayfield3,5181,2439302216933162,413
ScarboroughMulgrave2,5708686461411050751,763
ScarboroughNewby4,8671,6431,184111234113523,337
ScarboroughNorth Bay3,6271,0751,0751818183562,488
ScarboroughNorthstead3,05883388910614845752,096
ScarboroughRamshill3,3528991,00295135142232,296
ScarboroughScalby, Hackness and Staintondale2,9341,311459629962182,011
ScarboroughSeamer3,5211,28066919717868202,412
ScarboroughStepney3,3888781,12058120134132,323
ScarboroughStreonshalh3,4749171,214416861152,379
ScarboroughWeaponness2,8941,0625878714285201,983
ScarboroughWhitby West Cliff2,9799788244713045182,042
ScarboroughWoodlands3,4827871,1915020364922,387
 Total73,51122,84420,4821,3833,3431,53086950,451

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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