Selby and Ainsty: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Selby and Ainsty: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Nigel Adams  (CON)
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate: 75,765
Turnout: 74.0%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON32,92158.7%55.7%
LAB19,14934.1%33.1%
LIB2,2934.1%4.1%
UKIP1,7133.1%5.9%
Green00.0%1.1%
CON Majority13,77224.6%Pred Maj 22.5%
Chance of
winning
CON
85%
LAB
15%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%

Selby and Ainsty : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Selby and Ainsty constituency, the 'Yorks/Humber' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatYorks/HumberAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position9° Right3° Left
National Position9° Nat6° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %58%58%52%
British Identity27%28%29%
Good Health49%46%48%
UK Born95%92%88%
Good Education40%36%39%
Good Job53%47%51%
High SEC55%46%51%
Average Age50.348.548.5
ABC1 Class55%49%53%

Selby and Ainsty ranks #208 for "Leave", #133 for "Right" and #145 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Selby and Ainsty: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Selby and Ainsty: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Selby and Ainsty

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Selby and Ainsty at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Selby and Ainsty. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Selby and AinstyActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
HarrogateMarston Moor201248086626000
HarrogateOuseburn201252297000556
HarrogateRibston2012548137267000
HarrogateSpofforth with Lower Wharfedale201258598629300
SelbyAppleton Roebuck and Church Fenton20153,9671,7200000
SelbyBarlby Village20156457370000
SelbyBrayton20153,3501,206000747
SelbyByram and Brotherton2015480648034500
SelbyCamblesforth and Carlton20152,6631,04301,12500
SelbyCawood and Wistow20151,3195040000
SelbyDerwent20153,202887001,0660
SelbyEggborough2015336249000923
SelbyEscrick20151,029262001850
SelbyHambleton20151,0484730000
SelbyMonk Fryston20151,1755390000
SelbyRiccall2015599373000486
SelbySelby East20152,3303,673000402
SelbySelby West20154,0894,3670986863186
SelbySherburn in Elmet20154,6203,977006370
SelbySouth Milford2015896394002050
SelbyTadcaster20155,8141,7510000
SelbyThorpe Willoughby20159475580000
SelbyWhitley2015700251000647

Selby and AinstyTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
HarrogateMarston Moor2,2826771218830001,681
HarrogateOuseburn2,9179551770001,0172,149
HarrogateRibston2,3771,0082524910001,751
HarrogateSpofforth with Lower Wharfedale2,4551,263212134201001,810
SelbyAppleton Roebuck and Church Fenton4,5702,3501,01900003,369
SelbyBarlby Village2,28178589700001,682
SelbyBrayton4,9252,2938260005113,630
SelbyByram and Brotherton2,3645687670408001,743
SelbyCamblesforth and Carlton4,7201,9187510810003,479
SelbyCawood and Wistow2,3971,27848800001,766
SelbyDerwent4,2991,9685450065503,168
SelbyEggborough2,3453852850001,0581,728
SelbyEscrick2,0361,0462660018801,500
SelbyHambleton2,0381,03546700001,502
SelbyMonk Fryston2,3901,20855400001,762
SelbyRiccall1,8475593480004541,361
SelbySelby East5,2471,4072,2180002433,868
SelbySelby West7,3882,1222,2670512448975,446
SelbySherburn in Elmet5,3271,9641,6910027103,926
SelbySouth Milford1,8198043530018401,341
SelbyTadcaster5,6793,21796900004,186
SelbyThorpe Willoughby2,15399958800001,587
SelbyWhitley2,2257182580006641,640
 Total76,08130,52716,3191,5081,9311,7464,04456,075

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Selby and AinstyEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
HarrogateMarston Moor2,2739492235055001,682
HarrogateOuseburn2,9051,51051810913002,150
HarrogateRibston2,3671,1592932982001,752
HarrogateSpofforth with Lower Wharfedale2,4451,30330710891001,809
SelbyAppleton Roebuck and Church Fenton4,5512,3528971155003,369
SelbyBarlby Village2,2728307941839001,681
SelbyBrayton4,9052,3071,1769057003,630
SelbyByram and Brotherton2,35469477624248001,742
SelbyCamblesforth and Carlton4,7002,04695639437003,478
SelbyCawood and Wistow2,3871,212532211001,766
SelbyDerwent4,2812,1019397949003,168
SelbyEggborough2,3359036919243001,729
SelbyEscrick2,0281,079334844001,501
SelbyHambleton2,0309864751921001,501
SelbyMonk Fryston2,3801,1425852410001,761
SelbyRiccall1,839772494914001,361
SelbySelby East5,2251,5662,075103123003,867
SelbySelby West7,3572,4102,56171404005,446
SelbySherburn in Elmet5,3052,0571,66813169003,925
SelbySouth Milford1,811896416227001,341
SelbyTadcaster5,6552,6731,31917420004,186
SelbyThorpe Willoughby2,1449086282328001,587
SelbyWhitley2,2161,0644925331001,640
 Total76,08132,91919,1492,2931,7110056,075

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Selby and Ainsty

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Selby and Ainsty.

Selby and AinstyPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
HarrogateMarston Moor2,273898212506501701,683
HarrogateOuseburn2,9051,445496110752402,150
HarrogateRibston2,3671,106278299511901,753
HarrogateSpofforth with Lower Wharfedale2,4451,2482911091411901,808
SelbyAppleton Roebuck and Church Fenton4,5512,2498621171033803,369
SelbyBarlby Village2,27277977719881901,682
SelbyBrayton4,9052,1971,139921624103,631
SelbyByram and Brotherton2,354641758252982001,742
SelbyCamblesforth and Carlton4,7001,940920415383903,478
SelbyCawood and Wistow2,3871,15851422522001,766
SelbyDerwent4,2812,005907811413503,169
SelbyEggborough2,33585067393931901,728
SelbyEscrick2,0281,03331985471701,501
SelbyHambleton2,03094046020641701,501
SelbyMonk Fryston2,3801,08856725612001,761
SelbyRiccall1,83973148092431501,361
SelbySelby East5,2251,4482,0351052354303,866
SelbySelby West7,3572,2442,505745626105,446
SelbySherburn in Elmet5,3051,9381,6281331834403,926
SelbySouth Milford1,81185540223461501,341
SelbyTadcaster5,6552,5461,2761761414704,186
SelbyThorpe Willoughby2,14486061224741801,588
SelbyWhitley2,2161,01447554781801,639
 Total76,08131,21318,5862,3253,326625056,075

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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