Sherwood: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Sherwood: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Mark Spencer  (CON)
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 76,196
Turnout: 70.0%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON27,49251.5%47.8%
LAB22,29441.8%42.2%
UKIP1,8013.4%5.7%
LIB1,1132.1%2.1%
Green6641.2%1.8%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority5,1989.7%Pred Maj 5.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
61%
LAB
39%
UKIP
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Sherwood : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Sherwood constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position2° Right3° Right
National Position11° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %63%59%52%
British Identity23%27%29%
Good Health44%45%48%
UK Born97%91%88%
Good Education33%36%39%
Good Job46%48%51%
High SEC46%47%51%
Average Age50.449.148.5
ABC1 Class47%50%53%

Sherwood ranks #109 for "Leave", #296 for "Right" and #110 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Sherwood: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Sherwood: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Sherwood

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Sherwood at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Sherwood. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

SherwoodActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
AshfieldHucknall Central20151,5842,5592051,5120469
AshfieldHucknall North20155,0064,82301,0674351,729
AshfieldHucknall South20152,0512,65208790604
AshfieldHucknall West20155,0434,70201,7850971
GedlingBestwood St Albans20151,6402,002099400
GedlingCalverton20154,3993,52002,0510348
GedlingDumbles20151,265390022600
GedlingNewstead Abbey20158,6603,09001,59800
GedlingPlains20155,8814,3076432,1265680
GedlingRedhill20152,2332,85501,07400
Newark and SherwoodBilsthorpe20157678970000
Newark and SherwoodBoughton20157678280000
Newark and SherwoodDover Beck2015-100000
Newark and SherwoodEdwinstowe and Clipstone20154,5466,7140002,045
Newark and SherwoodFarnsfield20151,1485570000
Newark and SherwoodOllerton20153,5516,9090000
Newark and SherwoodRainworth North and Rufford20152,8363,1950000
Newark and SherwoodRainworth South and Blidworth20151,5242,762000304
Newark and SherwoodSouthwell20157,1452,5704,510000

SherwoodTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
AshfieldHucknall Central5,5221,0061,62513096002984,019
AshfieldHucknall North6,9191,9301,85904111686675,035
AshfieldHucknall South5,3871,3001,681055703833,921
AshfieldHucknall West7,1572,1011,959074404055,209
GedlingBestwood St Albans1,5113894750236001,100
GedlingCalverton5,6561,7551,404081801394,116
GedlingDumbles2,2491,1013390197001,637
GedlingNewstead Abbey6,1172,8881,0300533004,451
GedlingPlains7142261652582220520
GedlingRedhill2679030019
Newark and SherwoodBilsthorpe2,7409191,07500001,994
Newark and SherwoodBoughton2,44185492200001,776
Newark and SherwoodDover Beck44732500000325
Newark and SherwoodEdwinstowe and Clipstone7,7521,9272,8470008675,641
Newark and SherwoodFarnsfield2,1231,04050500001,545
Newark and SherwoodOllerton6,5501,6183,14800004,766
Newark and SherwoodRainworth North and Rufford4,5301,5501,74600003,296
Newark and SherwoodRainworth South and Blidworth4,4841,0831,9630002163,262
Newark and SherwoodSouthwell1,008368133233000734
 Total73,33322,38722,8853884,5411902,97553,366

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

SherwoodEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
AshfieldHucknall Central5,7381,7921,6851812946604,018
AshfieldHucknall North7,1892,5972,0129916915705,034
AshfieldHucknall South5,5971,8351,770781805703,920
AshfieldHucknall West7,4362,6372,139932835505,207
GedlingBestwood St Albans1,57052047819671701,101
GedlingCalverton5,8772,2581,485862177104,117
GedlingDumbles2,3371,21634818431101,636
GedlingNewstead Abbey6,3563,1261,0731121182104,450
GedlingPlains7422961672219160520
GedlingRedhill27108010019
Newark and SherwoodBilsthorpe2,8479839308621001,993
Newark and SherwoodBoughton2,5368558842241101,776
Newark and SherwoodDover Beck464292300110324
Newark and SherwoodEdwinstowe and Clipstone8,0552,8062,61981815505,642
Newark and SherwoodFarnsfield2,2061,039449472901,546
Newark and SherwoodOllerton6,8061,8602,749131123204,766
Newark and SherwoodRainworth North and Rufford4,7071,6181,54858611103,296
Newark and SherwoodRainworth South and Blidworth4,6591,3221,77752674503,263
Newark and SherwoodSouthwell1,0474321431420160733
 Total73,33327,49422,2941,1111,801661053,366

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Sherwood

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Sherwood.

SherwoodPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
AshfieldHucknall Central5,7381,6421,70118138987194,019
AshfieldHucknall North7,1892,4092,03299288183235,034
AshfieldHucknall South5,5971,6891,7857827277183,919
AshfieldHucknall West7,4362,4432,1599340682245,207
GedlingBestwood St Albans1,57047948219932351,101
GedlingCalverton5,8772,1041,5018631492194,116
GedlingDumbles2,3371,15535418821981,636
GedlingNewstead Abbey6,3562,9601,09011222344214,450
GedlingPlains7422771692231192520
GedlingRedhill2798010018
Newark and SherwoodBilsthorpe2,84790993881092091,993
Newark and SherwoodBoughton2,5367898912662081,776
Newark and SherwoodDover Beck464280310932325
Newark and SherwoodEdwinstowe and Clipstone8,0552,5962,6418121484265,642
Newark and SherwoodFarnsfield2,20698145547381771,545
Newark and SherwoodOllerton6,8061,6822,7671322456224,764
Newark and SherwoodRainworth North and Rufford4,7071,4951,5615813928153,296
Newark and SherwoodRainworth South and Blidworth4,6591,2001,7905214462153,263
Newark and SherwoodSouthwell1,04740514614217203733
 Total73,33325,50422,5011,1113,05993624653,357

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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