Shrewsbury and Atcham: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Shrewsbury and Atcham: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Daniel Kawczynski  (CON)
County/Area: Shropshire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 79,043
Turnout: 73.6%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON29,07350.0%46.8%
LAB22,44638.6%37.6%
LIB4,2547.3%7.4%
UKIP1,3632.3%5.3%
Green1,0671.8%2.9%
CON Majority6,62711.4%Pred Maj 9.2%
Chance of
winning
CON
66%
LAB
34%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%

Shrewsbury and Atcham : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Shrewsbury and Atcham constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWest MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position4° Right2° Right
National Position6° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %53%59%52%
British Identity26%28%29%
Good Health47%45%48%
UK Born94%89%88%
Good Education42%35%39%
Good Job50%48%51%
High SEC54%46%51%
Average Age50.548.748.5
ABC1 Class53%49%53%

Shrewsbury and Atcham ranks #334 for "Leave", #265 for "Right" and #238 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Shrewsbury and Atcham: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Shrewsbury and Atcham: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Shrewsbury and Atcham

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Shrewsbury and Atcham at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Shrewsbury and Atcham. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Shrewsbury and AtchamActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
ShropshireAbbey2013247154675164610
ShropshireBagley20133543243460590
ShropshireBattlefield20133892380000
ShropshireBayston Hill, Column and Sutton20133,1786,40829384800
ShropshireBelle Vue20132899390000
ShropshireBowbrook20136043170000
ShropshireBurnell20139370499000
ShropshireCastlefields and Ditherington201310893743000
ShropshireCopthorne201356924010123400
ShropshireHarlescott20132756040000
ShropshireLongden201353110081713800
ShropshireLoton20139270230000
ShropshireMeole201368947392000
ShropshireMonkmoor201332865873000
ShropshirePorthill201343218950101330
ShropshireQuarry and Coton Hill2013311196451000
ShropshireRadbrook2013592302398000
ShropshireRea Valley20135121379829800
ShropshireSevern Valley201394617490000
ShropshireSundorne201321954500059
ShropshireTern2013721249200000
ShropshireUnderdale20137816266112200

Shrewsbury and AtchamTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ShropshireAbbey2,8124062531,11127010002,140
ShropshireBagley3,448858785839014302,625
ShropshireBattlefield2,8631,35282700002,179
ShropshireBayston Hill, Column and Sutton9,0172,0344,100187543006,864
ShropshireBelle Vue3,2655851,90100002,486
ShropshireBowbrook3,0131,50478900002,293
ShropshireBurnell3,3991,68808990002,587
ShropshireCastlefields and Ditherington3,3632542,2051010002,560
ShropshireCopthorne3,0771,165491207479002,342
ShropshireHarlescott3,7118841,94100002,825
ShropshireLongden3,0707821471,204203002,336
ShropshireLoton3,0611,86704630002,330
ShropshireMeole3,2261,3499261800002,455
ShropshireMonkmoor3,3998011,6081780002,587
ShropshirePorthill3,4979164011,063028202,662
ShropshireQuarry and Coton Hill3,0507544751,0930002,322
ShropshireRadbrook3,0141,0515367070002,294
ShropshireRea Valley3,1141,161311222676002,370
ShropshireSevern Valley3,2091,9103511820002,443
ShropshireSundorne3,2456571,6360001772,470
ShropshireTern3,2901,5435334280002,504
ShropshireUnderdale3,3151924001,631301002,524
 Total76,45823,71320,61610,6952,47252517758,198

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Shrewsbury and AtchamEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ShropshireAbbey2,9071,0135903317912702,140
ShropshireBagley3,5651,1971,038270219902,625
ShropshireBattlefield2,9601,2128497735502,178
ShropshireBayston Hill, Column and Sutton9,3222,8113,4573002385706,863
ShropshireBelle Vue3,3757971,46914147502,486
ShropshireBowbrook3,1151,28886810526702,294
ShropshireBurnell3,5141,961293263115902,587
ShropshireCastlefields and Ditherington3,4775601,815101543002,560
ShropshireCopthorne3,1811,3706741401382002,342
ShropshireHarlescott3,8369841,6647697402,825
ShropshireLongden3,1741,373556283804402,336
ShropshireLoton3,1641,80535613872502,331
ShropshireMeole3,3351,317958156151102,457
ShropshireMonkmoor3,5141,0071,389102741502,587
ShropshirePorthill3,6151,357723342323702,662
ShropshireQuarry and Coton Hill3,1531,12878732357802,321
ShropshireRadbrook3,1161,24374826843102,294
ShropshireRea Valley3,2191,3886151332112302,370
ShropshireSevern Valley3,3171,7865428392202,442
ShropshireSundorne3,3558201,48181751302,470
ShropshireTern3,4011,664652126412302,506
ShropshireUnderdale3,4279909194171366102,523
 Total76,45829,07122,4434,2561,3631,066058,198

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Shrewsbury and Atcham

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Shrewsbury and Atcham.

Shrewsbury and AtchamPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ShropshireAbbey2,90794756933214215002,140
ShropshireBagley3,5651,1161,0122719812802,625
ShropshireBattlefield2,9601,14482778992902,177
ShropshireBayston Hill, Column and Sutton9,3222,5983,38930444013206,863
ShropshireBelle Vue3,3757201,4441427710202,485
ShropshireBowbrook3,1151,217845106943202,294
ShropshireBurnell3,5141,881279264798402,587
ShropshireCastlefields and Ditherington3,4774811,7901021295802,560
ShropshireCopthorne3,1811,2976511412074602,342
ShropshireHarlescott3,8368961,636781803502,825
ShropshireLongden3,1741,3005332841497002,336
ShropshireLoton3,1641,733338139724902,331
ShropshireMeole3,3351,241934157873802,457
ShropshireMonkmoor3,5149271,3631031504302,586
ShropshirePorthill3,6151,2746973438126602,661
ShropshireQuarry and Coton Hill3,1531,0567643247310302,320
ShropshireRadbrook3,1161,172725269725602,294
ShropshireRea Valley3,2191,3145921342814902,370
ShropshireSevern Valley3,3171,71051884814902,442
ShropshireSundorne3,3557431,457821484002,470
ShropshireTern3,4011,5866271271155002,505
ShropshireUnderdale3,4279128944182108902,523
 Total76,45827,26521,8844,2823,0641,698058,193

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)