Shropshire North: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Shropshire North: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Owen Paterson  (CON)
County/Area: Shropshire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 80,535
Turnout: 69.0%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON33,64260.5%56.7%
LAB17,28731.1%31.5%
LIB2,9485.3%5.3%
Green1,7223.1%3.6%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority16,35529.4%Pred Maj 25.2%
Chance of
winning
CON
87%
LAB
13%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Shropshire North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Shropshire North constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWest MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right2° Right
National Position13° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %60%59%52%
British Identity27%28%29%
Good Health47%45%48%
UK Born95%89%88%
Good Education37%35%39%
Good Job47%48%51%
High SEC49%46%51%
Average Age50.848.748.5
ABC1 Class48%49%53%

Shropshire North ranks #169 for "Leave", #115 for "Right" and #82 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Shropshire North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Shropshire North: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Shropshire North

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Shropshire North at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Shropshire North. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Shropshire NorthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
ShropshireCheswardine20135452240000
ShropshireEllesmere Urban20134780425000
ShropshireGobowen, Selattyn and Weston Rhyn20131,4020000578
ShropshireHodnet20135490026300
ShropshireLlanymynech20136540031700
ShropshireMarket Drayton East2013524241000384
ShropshireMarket Drayton West20131,33790405920134
ShropshireOswestry East20131,037551000780
ShropshireOswestry South20134880621753370
ShropshireOswestry West20135580000145
ShropshirePrees20136140035500
ShropshireRuyton and Baschurch20133719127933100
ShropshireShawbury2013-100000
ShropshireSt Martin's2013465301000187
ShropshireSt Oswald2013-100000
ShropshireThe Meres2013-100000
ShropshireWem201378201,322001,287
ShropshireWhitchurch North2013-200000
ShropshireWhitchurch South2013-100000
ShropshireWhittington20135170039700

Shropshire NorthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ShropshireCheswardine3,1971,59665600002,252
ShropshireEllesmere Urban2,9041,08309630002,046
ShropshireGobowen, Selattyn and Weston Rhyn5,3412,66500001,0993,764
ShropshireHodnet3,3271,58500759002,344
ShropshireLlanymynech3,0521,44800702002,150
ShropshireMarket Drayton East3,3951,0915020007992,392
ShropshireMarket Drayton West6,7772,1521,455095302164,776
ShropshireOswestry East6,8342,1091,1200001,5864,815
ShropshireOswestry South3,2201,043013237472002,269
ShropshireOswestry West2,8761,60800004182,026
ShropshirePrees3,2561,45400840002,294
ShropshireRuyton and Baschurch3,085752185566671002,174
ShropshireShawbury3,5252,484000002,484
ShropshireSt Martin's3,2611,1217260004512,298
ShropshireSt Oswald3,2142,265000002,265
ShropshireThe Meres3,5322,489000002,489
ShropshireWem6,3181,02701,735001,6904,452
ShropshireWhitchurch North5,5093,882000003,882
ShropshireWhitchurch South3,1252,202000002,202
ShropshireWhittington3,1631,26100968002,229
 Total78,91135,3174,6443,3965,2677206,25955,603

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Shropshire NorthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ShropshireCheswardine3,2631,6085913901402,252
ShropshireEllesmere Urban2,9641,12039048804802,046
ShropshireGobowen, Selattyn and Weston Rhyn5,4512,3421,2665709903,764
ShropshireHodnet3,3951,542749704602,344
ShropshireLlanymynech3,1151,4056067006902,150
ShropshireMarket Drayton East3,4651,2881,0102806602,392
ShropshireMarket Drayton West6,9162,2282,302127011804,775
ShropshireOswestry East6,9752,1522,371164012804,815
ShropshireOswestry South3,2861,142499198043102,270
ShropshireOswestry West2,9351,25959011905702,025
ShropshirePrees3,3231,476741807002,295
ShropshireRuyton and Baschurch3,1481,06866239904402,173
ShropshireShawbury3,5982,0264022503202,485
ShropshireSt Martin's3,3281,2239903704902,299
ShropshireSt Oswald3,2801,7774143504002,266
ShropshireThe Meres3,6052,1032607904602,488
ShropshireWem6,4481,8681,550861017304,452
ShropshireWhitchurch North5,6222,96967714908603,881
ShropshireWhitchurch South3,1891,7573762904002,202
ShropshireWhittington3,2281,2908442806602,228
 Total78,91133,64317,2902,94701,722055,603

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Shropshire North

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Shropshire North.

Shropshire NorthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ShropshireCheswardine3,2631,523600395426112,253
ShropshireEllesmere Urban2,9641,0433984884959102,047
ShropshireGobowen, Selattyn and Weston Rhyn5,4512,2001,2815790119183,765
ShropshireHodnet3,3951,45375875658112,343
ShropshireLlanymynech3,1151,324614705180102,149
ShropshireMarket Drayton East3,4651,1971,019285778112,390
ShropshireMarket Drayton West6,9162,0472,321127114143224,774
ShropshireOswestry East6,9751,9702,390164115153234,815
ShropshireOswestry South3,2861,05650819854443112,270
ShropshireOswestry West2,9351,1825981194868102,025
ShropshirePrees3,3231,38975085582112,295
ShropshireRuyton and Baschurch3,1489866713995255102,173
ShropshireShawbury3,5981,932412255945122,485
ShropshireSt Martin's3,3281,136999375561112,299
ShropshireSt Oswald3,2801,691423355452112,266
ShropshireThe Meres3,6052,009270796059122,489
ShropshireWem6,4481,7001,568861106196214,452
ShropshireWhitchurch North5,6222,82269214993106183,880
ShropshireWhitchurch South3,1891,674385295351102,202
ShropshireWhittington3,2281,206853285378102,228
 Total78,91131,54017,5102,9471,3282,01226355,600

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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