Sittingbourne and Sheppey: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Sittingbourne and Sheppey: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Gordon Henderson  (CON)
County/Area: Kent (South East)
Electorate: 81,715
Turnout: 62.9%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON30,91160.2%56.4%
LAB15,70030.6%30.9%
MIN2,1334.2%4.2%
LIB1,3922.7%2.7%
OTH6951.4%1.8%
Green5581.1%1.6%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
CON Majority15,21129.6%Pred Maj 25.5%
Chance of
winning
CON
88%
LAB
12%
MIN
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%

Sittingbourne and Sheppey : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Sittingbourne and Sheppey constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position7° Right4° Right
National Position15° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %66%52%52%
British Identity23%29%29%
Good Health44%49%48%
UK Born94%88%88%
Good Education28%43%39%
Good Job45%56%51%
High SEC44%57%51%
Average Age48.949.248.5
ABC1 Class45%60%53%

Sittingbourne and Sheppey ranks #60 for "Leave", #161 for "Right" and #40 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Sittingbourne and Sheppey: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Sittingbourne and Sheppey: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Sittingbourne and Sheppey

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Sittingbourne and Sheppey at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Sittingbourne and Sheppey. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Sittingbourne and SheppeyActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
SwaleBobbing, Iwade and Lower Halstow20152,631656088100
SwaleBorden and Grove Park20152,42752901,96700
SwaleChalkwell20153665184424200
SwaleHartlip, Newington and Upchurch20152,89753401,86800
SwaleHomewood20152,1312,03529579700
SwaleKemsley20152,1491,11719495200
SwaleMilton Regis20159931,599252000
SwaleMinster Cliffs20154,22486401,55200
SwaleMurston20158921,08732487600
SwaleQueenborough and Halfway20152,3451,99901,5110258
SwaleRoman20157841,70401,00800
SwaleSheerness20151,7963,5701781,56200
SwaleSheppey Central20153,3661,35102,3110481
SwaleSheppey East20151,49560901,0890205
SwaleTeynham and Lynsted20152,670691087800
SwaleThe Meads2015722267035400
SwaleWest Downs20158070000838
SwaleWoodstock20152,8429313321,4540336

Sittingbourne and SheppeyTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
SwaleBobbing, Iwade and Lower Halstow3,4441,4703660492002,328
SwaleBorden and Grove Park4,1821,39430401,130002,828
SwaleChalkwell2,11944863454296001,432
SwaleHartlip, Newington and Upchurch4,0711,5052770970002,752
SwaleHomewood4,4311,2141,159168454002,995
SwaleKemsley4,5481,498778135663003,074
SwaleMilton Regis4,2721,0081,6242560002,888
SwaleMinster Cliffs5,0862,1874470804003,438
SwaleMurston4,204797972290783002,842
SwaleQueenborough and Halfway5,2511,3621,161087701503,550
SwaleRoman4,5096841,4860879003,049
SwaleSheerness8,3931,4342,8511421,247005,674
SwaleSheppey Central5,1131,54962201,06402213,456
SwaleSheppey East4,4831,333543097101833,030
SwaleTeynham and Lynsted3,8181,6264210535002,582
SwaleThe Meads2,1447792880382001,449
SwaleWest Downs1,93464100006661,307
SwaleWoodstock4,0131,30842815366901552,713
 Total76,01522,23714,3611,19812,21601,37551,387

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Sittingbourne and SheppeyEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
SwaleBobbing, Iwade and Lower Halstow3,7021,76143419019952,328
SwaleBorden and Grove Park4,4962,059519650411442,828
SwaleChalkwell2,27869559467018581,432
SwaleHartlip, Newington and Upchurch4,3762,113449350301242,751
SwaleHomewood4,7631,6311,0231950411062,996
SwaleKemsley4,8891,9218911170251213,075
SwaleMilton Regis4,5921,2431,372179017762,887
SwaleMinster Cliffs5,4672,523719170251543,438
SwaleMurston4,5191,4361,0661890321192,842
SwaleQueenborough and Halfway5,6451,9981,250410252363,550
SwaleRoman4,8471,4511,387470441203,049
SwaleSheerness9,0222,4322,7721780412515,674
SwaleSheppey Central5,4962,147969230452733,457
SwaleSheppey East4,8191,959777250242443,029
SwaleTeynham and Lynsted4,1041,89748550055942,581
SwaleThe Meads2,3051,00634025023541,448
SwaleWest Downs2,0798398150183641,307
SwaleWoodstock4,3141,7995731140341922,712
 Total76,01530,91015,7011,39105572,82551,387

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Sittingbourne and Sheppey

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Sittingbourne and Sheppey.

Sittingbourne and SheppeyPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
SwaleBobbing, Iwade and Lower Halstow3,7021,6744431955311062,328
SwaleBorden and Grove Park4,4961,9545306567561572,829
SwaleChalkwell2,278642600673425651,433
SwaleHartlip, Newington and Upchurch4,3762,0104603565441372,751
SwaleHomewood4,7631,5191,03519571561202,996
SwaleKemsley4,8891,80690311773411353,075
SwaleMilton Regis4,5921,1351,3831796832892,886
SwaleMinster Cliffs5,4672,3957321781431703,438
SwaleMurston4,5191,3301,07718967471322,842
SwaleQueenborough and Halfway5,6451,8661,2644184432523,550
SwaleRoman4,8471,3371,3994772601343,049
SwaleSheerness9,0222,2202,794178134702775,673
SwaleSheppey Central5,4962,0189822382632893,457
SwaleSheppey East4,8191,8467892571402583,029
SwaleTeynham and Lynsted4,1041,8014955061681062,581
SwaleThe Meads2,305952346253430611,448
SwaleWest Downs2,07979086531253701,307
SwaleWoodstock4,3141,69858411464482052,713
 Total76,01528,99315,9021,3911,2148223,06351,385

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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