Skipton and Ripon: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Skipton and Ripon: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Julian Smith  (CON)
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate: 78,108
Turnout: 74.4%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON36,42562.7%59.6%
LAB16,44028.3%27.3%
Green3,7346.4%7.5%
MIN1,5392.6%2.6%
LIB00.0%0.1%
UKIP00.0%2.9%
CON Majority19,98534.4%Pred Maj 32.2%
Chance of
winning
CON
92%
LAB
8%
Green
0%
MIN
0%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%

Skipton and Ripon : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Skipton and Ripon constituency, the 'Yorks/Humber' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatYorks/HumberAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position10° Right3° Left
National Position7° Nat6° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %54%58%52%
British Identity29%28%29%
Good Health49%46%48%
UK Born94%92%88%
Good Education44%36%39%
Good Job53%47%51%
High SEC57%46%51%
Average Age52.748.548.5
ABC1 Class56%49%53%

Skipton and Ripon ranks #314 for "Leave", #90 for "Right" and #191 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Skipton and Ripon: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Skipton and Ripon: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Skipton and Ripon

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Skipton and Ripon at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Skipton and Ripon. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Skipton and RiponActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
CravenAire Valley with Lothersdale20147384550000
CravenBarden Fell2015598000126333
CravenBentham201580639320900619
CravenCowling20123112040000
CravenEmbsay-with-Eastby2015677249002210
CravenGargrave and Malhamdale20151,3725080000
CravenGlusburn201560137506110572
CravenGrassington20123901390000
CravenHellifield and Long Preston20145001920000
CravenIngleton and Clapham2014759191000339
CravenPenyghent20144301860000
CravenSettle and Ribblebanks20151,115502004570
CravenSkipton East20151,045542003020
CravenSkipton North20157312561940363528
CravenSkipton South2015323420900147556
CravenSkipton West20156036771830139234
CravenSutton-in-Craven20150483004231,046
CravenUpper Wharfedale20159732250000
CravenWest Craven20158762770000
HarrogateBishop Monkton20127091860000
HarrogateKirkby Malzeard2012794106201000
HarrogateLower Nidderdale201266182107000
HarrogateMashamshire20125361190000
HarrogateNewby20126451820000
HarrogateNidd Valley201240290477000
HarrogatePateley Bridge2012403123333000
HarrogateRipon Minster20157833610533281491
HarrogateRipon Moorside201579036304960698
HarrogateRipon Spa20151,33741005800528
HarrogateWashburn2012830015512300
HarrogateWathvale20126202030000

Skipton and RiponTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CravenAire Valley with Lothersdale2,7561,30080200002,102
CravenBarden Fell1,301561000118313992
CravenBentham2,779843411218006472,119
CravenCowling1,85285355900001,412
CravenEmbsay-with-Eastby1,4536542410021301,108
CravenGargrave and Malhamdale2,3331,29848100001,779
CravenGlusburn3,065651406066106192,337
CravenGrassington1,2226872450000932
CravenHellifield and Long Preston1,66891935300001,272
CravenIngleton and Clapham2,9131,3083290005842,221
CravenPenyghent1,48378934100001,130
CravenSettle and Ribblebanks2,7391,1235060046002,089
CravenSkipton East2,5761,0875640031401,965
CravenSkipton North2,66471725119003565182,032
CravenSkipton South2,88746360212902117972,202
CravenSkipton West3,13478588123801813052,390
CravenSutton-in-Craven2,7740523004581,1342,115
CravenUpper Wharfedale1,44389420700001,101
CravenWest Craven1,49286427300001,137
HarrogateBishop Monkton2,1971,32734800001,675
HarrogateKirkby Malzeard2,3981,3191763340001,829
HarrogateLower Nidderdale2,4761,4681822380001,888
HarrogateMashamshire1,7861,11424700001,361
HarrogateNewby2,3801,41539900001,814
HarrogateNidd Valley2,4117631719050001,839
HarrogatePateley Bridge2,0897472286180001,593
HarrogateRipon Minster4,1351,00846506863626323,153
HarrogateRipon Moorside3,861991455062208762,944
HarrogateRipon Spa4,8301,725529074806813,683
HarrogateWashburn2,4771,4150264210001,889
HarrogateWathvale2,6681,53350200002,035
 Total76,24230,62111,6773,1342,9272,6737,10658,138

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Skipton and RiponEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CravenAire Valley with Lothersdale2,8231,2667490067202,102
CravenBarden Fell1,333729122009050991
CravenBentham2,8471,17670500142972,120
CravenCowling1,8978445110045131,413
CravenEmbsay-with-Eastby1,48967027600151101,107
CravenGargrave and Malhamdale2,3901,2105110038201,779
CravenGlusburn3,1401,25586800115982,336
CravenGrassington1,252658216004117932
CravenHellifield and Long Preston1,7098553490049191,272
CravenIngleton and Clapham2,9841,52350500861062,220
CravenPenyghent1,5197652980056111,130
CravenSettle and Ribblebanks2,8061,19156800303272,089
CravenSkipton East2,6391,11260500226221,965
CravenSkipton North2,7291,07160700279742,031
CravenSkipton South2,9588501,030002091132,202
CravenSkipton West3,2111,0871,04100201622,391
CravenSutton-in-Craven2,842817835003241402,116
CravenUpper Wharfedale1,4788601870034201,101
CravenWest Craven1,529805280004581,138
HarrogateBishop Monkton2,2511,2823260048191,675
HarrogateKirkby Malzeard2,4571,3953370078191,829
HarrogateLower Nidderdale2,5371,4623600048191,889
HarrogateMashamshire1,8301,0292780037171,361
HarrogateNewby2,4381,3544100040111,815
HarrogateNidd Valley2,4701,23746200107331,839
HarrogatePateley Bridge2,1401,0584330071311,593
HarrogateRipon Minster4,2361,6471,024003631203,154
HarrogateRipon Moorside3,9551,743931001321372,943
HarrogateRipon Spa4,9482,415923001871583,683
HarrogateWashburn2,5381,5252740067221,888
HarrogateWathvale2,7331,5374170055262,035
 Total76,24236,42816,438003,7341,53958,138

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Skipton and Ripon

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Skipton and Ripon.

Skipton and RiponPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CravenAire Valley with Lothersdale2,8231,20172816290202,102
CravenBarden Fell1,33369811602610050990
CravenBentham2,8471,111684162165972,120
CravenCowling1,89780049714160131,412
CravenEmbsay-with-Eastby1,489636265132163101,107
CravenGargrave and Malhamdale2,3901,15549415257201,779
CravenGlusburn3,1401,183845168140982,335
CravenGrassington1,2526292070275117931
CravenHellifield and Long Preston1,70981633713763191,273
CravenIngleton and Clapham2,9841,4544831651101062,219
CravenPenyghent1,51973028713368111,130
CravenSettle and Ribblebanks2,8061,127547161326272,089
CravenSkipton East2,6391,051586158247221,965
CravenSkipton North2,7291,008587159301742,030
CravenSkipton South2,9587821,0081642331132,201
CravenSkipton West3,2111,0131,018170227622,391
CravenSutton-in-Craven2,8427528141623471402,116
CravenUpper Wharfedale1,47882617813146201,102
CravenWest Craven1,5297702691335781,138
HarrogateBishop Monkton2,2511,23031014966191,675
HarrogateKirkby Malzeard2,4571,33932015398191,830
HarrogateLower Nidderdale2,5371,40434215568191,889
HarrogateMashamshire1,83098726514052171,362
HarrogateNewby2,4381,29839215360111,815
HarrogateNidd Valley2,4701,180444154127331,839
HarrogatePateley Bridge2,1401,00941714788311,593
HarrogateRipon Minster4,2361,5509932923971203,154
HarrogateRipon Moorside3,9551,6529022861641372,943
HarrogateRipon Spa4,9482,30188721082271583,683
HarrogateWashburn2,5381,46726115286221,889
HarrogateWathvale2,7331,47439716077262,035
 Total76,24234,63315,880321,6924,3611,53958,137

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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