Sleaford and North Hykeham: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Sleaford and North Hykeham: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Caroline Johnson  (CON)
County/Area: Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 90,925
Turnout: 72.4%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON42,24564.2%60.5%
LAB17,00825.8%26.2%
LIB2,7224.1%4.1%
UKIP1,9543.0%5.3%
Green9681.5%2.0%
OTH9001.4%1.8%
CON Majority25,23738.4%Pred Maj 34.2%
Chance of
winning
CON
92%
LAB
8%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Sleaford and North Hykeham : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Sleaford and North Hykeham constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position13° Right3° Right
National Position14° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %62%59%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health46%45%48%
UK Born95%91%88%
Good Education39%36%39%
Good Job53%48%51%
High SEC55%47%51%
Average Age52.449.148.5
ABC1 Class56%50%53%

Sleaford and North Hykeham ranks #127 for "Leave", #52 for "Right" and #57 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Sleaford and North Hykeham: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Sleaford and North Hykeham: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Sleaford and North Hykeham

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Sleaford and North Hykeham at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Sleaford and North Hykeham. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Sleaford and North HykehamActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
North KestevenAshby de la Launde and Cranwell20153,2930000871
North KestevenBassingham and Brant Broughton20153,237006470775
North KestevenBillinghay, Martin and North Kyme20151,3795480001,669
North KestevenBranston20152,56900002,230
North KestevenCliff Villages20151,16500003,706
North KestevenEagle, Swinderby and Witham St Hughs2015-10000-1
North KestevenHeckington Rural20152,978001,0660798
North KestevenHeighington and Washingborough20156,201001,14700
North KestevenKirkby la Thorpe and South Kyme20158380000462
North KestevenLeasingham and Rauceby20157990000535
North KestevenMetheringham20152,98100001,336
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Forum20156170000658
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Memorial20156780000689
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Mill20152,48300001,013
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Moor2015603000270450
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Witham2015-100000
North KestevenOsbournby20159480000442
North KestevenRuskington20153,39900001,121
North KestevenSleaford Castle20154510000678
North KestevenSleaford Holdingham20154130000750
North KestevenSleaford Navigation20154080000714
North KestevenSleaford Quarrington and Mareham20153,50900004,637
North KestevenSleaford Westholme20153110000789
North KestevenWaddington West20157360047500
South KestevenBelvoir20153,3197630000
South KestevenGrantham Arnoldfield20152,08973109990335
South KestevenGrantham St Wulfram's20152,7051,259068500
South KestevenLoveden Heath20156380000924
South KestevenPeascliffe and Ridgeway20152,66700001,943
South KestevenViking20152,62700002,848

Sleaford and North HykehamTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
North KestevenAshby de la Launde and Cranwell4,4502,62600006943,320
North KestevenBassingham and Brant Broughton3,7891,9640039304702,827
North KestevenBillinghay, Martin and North Kyme3,9471,1294490001,3672,945
North KestevenBranston3,9161,56400001,3582,922
North KestevenCliff Villages4,23275500002,4023,157
North KestevenEagle, Swinderby and Witham St Hughs4,1651,55400001,5543,108
North KestevenHeckington Rural4,2631,9560070005243,180
North KestevenHeighington and Washingborough5,3733,38300626004,009
North KestevenKirkby la Thorpe and South Kyme1,83688300004871,370
North KestevenLeasingham and Rauceby1,66774500004991,244
North KestevenMetheringham4,3372,23400001,0013,235
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Forum1,96671000007571,467
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Memorial2,04875800007701,528
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Mill3,3961,80000007342,534
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Moor1,8596320002834721,387
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Witham1,8591,387000001,387
North KestevenOsbournby1,83893500004361,371
North KestevenRuskington4,4672,50600008273,333
North KestevenSleaford Castle2,11663100009481,579
North KestevenSleaford Holdingham2,18057800001,0491,627
North KestevenSleaford Navigation2,20359800001,0461,644
North KestevenSleaford Quarrington and Mareham5,5761,79200002,3684,160
North KestevenSleaford Westholme1,99642100001,0681,489
North KestevenWaddington West1,96689100575001,466
South KestevenBelvoir2,5201,52935100001,880
South KestevenGrantham Arnoldfield1756623031011131
South KestevenGrantham St Wulfram's2411054902600180
South KestevenLoveden Heath2,05762700009081,535
South KestevenPeascliffe and Ridgeway3,9211,69200001,2332,925
South KestevenViking3,8291,37100001,4862,857
 Total88,18837,82287202,35128324,46965,797

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Sleaford and North HykehamEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
North KestevenAshby de la Launde and Cranwell4,5882,58259462740363,321
North KestevenBassingham and Brant Broughton3,9072,0264866218048252,827
North KestevenBillinghay, Martin and North Kyme4,0691,6331,0361236247442,945
North KestevenBranston4,0381,8388491163638452,922
North KestevenCliff Villages4,3631,7711,101166852583,156
North KestevenEagle, Swinderby and Witham St Hughs4,2941,9469111371255463,107
North KestevenHeckington Rural4,3952,1046195635020323,181
North KestevenHeighington and Washingborough5,5402,92659713430131204,009
North KestevenKirkby la Thorpe and South Kyme1,893974299352818171,371
North KestevenLeasingham and Rauceby1,719863260682312191,245
North KestevenMetheringham4,4722,220775977027463,235
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Forum2,027854452675414261,467
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Memorial2,1128304921284214231,529
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Mill3,5011,6227191121237312,533
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Moor1,9177483855823154201,388
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Witham1,9171,0582265536761,388
North KestevenOsbournby1,89599828440726171,372
North KestevenRuskington4,6062,352761847320413,331
North KestevenSleaford Castle2,182829585832230301,579
North KestevenSleaford Holdingham2,248805640864520311,627
North KestevenSleaford Navigation2,2717936241184528351,643
North KestevenSleaford Quarrington and Mareham5,7492,4451,2352567767804,160
North KestevenSleaford Westholme2,0586935381514233321,489
North KestevenWaddington West2,02789021672274591,466
South KestevenBelvoir2,5981,42235643406131,880
South KestevenGrantham Arnoldfield180763451501131
South KestevenGrantham St Wulfram's2481015841221178
South KestevenLoveden Heath2,12195143285833251,534
South KestevenPeascliffe and Ridgeway4,0431,9767071134246422,926
South KestevenViking3,9481,9187391071139442,858
 Total88,18842,24417,0102,7231,95796989565,797

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Sleaford and North Hykeham

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Sleaford and North Hykeham.

Sleaford and North HykehamPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
North KestevenAshby de la Launde and Cranwell4,5882,458607628557513,320
North KestevenBassingham and Brant Broughton3,9071,9214976224763382,828
North KestevenBillinghay, Martin and North Kyme4,0691,5231,04712313162582,944
North KestevenBranston4,0381,72986011610553582,921
North KestevenCliff Villages4,3631,6531,1131668268733,155
North KestevenEagle, Swinderby and Witham St Hughs4,2941,8309231378571603,106
North KestevenHeckington Rural4,3951,9856315642536473,180
North KestevenHeighington and Washingborough5,5402,77761313439552394,010
North KestevenKirkby la Thorpe and South Kyme1,893923304356025231,370
North KestevenLeasingham and Rauceby1,719817265685218251,245
North KestevenMetheringham4,4722,0997889714644613,235
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Forum2,027799458678922331,468
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Memorial2,1127734981287822301,529
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Mill3,5011,5287291127250432,534
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Moor1,9176963905856161261,387
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Witham1,9171,006231556914121,387
North KestevenOsbournby1,895947289403933231,371
North KestevenRuskington4,6062,2287748415237563,331
North KestevenSleaford Castle2,182770591835938371,578
North KestevenSleaford Holdingham2,248744646868328391,626
North KestevenSleaford Navigation2,2717326301188436431,643
North KestevenSleaford Quarrington and Mareham5,7492,2901,25125617588994,159
North KestevenSleaford Westholme2,0586385441517741391,490
North KestevenWaddington West2,0278352227230913161,467
South KestevenBelvoir2,5981,352363438416221,880
South KestevenGrantham Arnoldfield180713551812132
South KestevenGrantham St Wulfram's248945941632178
South KestevenLoveden Heath2,121894438854441321,534
South KestevenPeascliffe and Ridgeway4,0431,86771811311161562,926
South KestevenViking3,9481,8117501077854572,857
 Total88,18839,79017,2642,7233,5061,3081,20065,791

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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