Somerset North: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Somerset North: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Liam Fox  (CON)
County/Area: Bristol area (South West)
Electorate: 80,538
Turnout: 77.0%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON33,60554.2%51.1%
LAB16,50226.6%25.6%
LIB5,9829.6%9.7%
MIN3,9296.3%6.3%
Green1,9763.2%4.3%
UKIP00.0%3.0%
CON Majority17,10327.6%Pred Maj 25.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
86%
LAB
12%
LIB
1%
MIN
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%

Somerset North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Somerset North constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position3° Right1° Right
National Position1° Int1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %46%53%52%
British Identity30%27%29%
Good Health50%47%48%
UK Born95%92%88%
Good Education46%40%39%
Good Job61%50%51%
High SEC64%52%51%
Average Age52.550.548.5
ABC1 Class65%54%53%

Somerset North ranks #470 for "Leave", #285 for "Right" and #427 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Somerset North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Somerset North: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Somerset North

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Somerset North at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Somerset North. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Somerset NorthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
North SomersetBackwell20151,8730880000
North SomersetClevedon East201571737833700812
North SomersetClevedon South20151,231623391000
North SomersetClevedon Walton20151,414409000840
North SomersetClevedon West20151,078559000612
North SomersetClevedon Yeo20151,338551418000
North SomersetGordano Valley20151,4263382703500343
North SomersetLong Ashton20154,8971,2201,39401,2160
North SomersetNailsea Golden Valley201583800001,890
North SomersetNailsea West End201595100001,251
North SomersetNailsea Yeo2015998385000993
North SomersetNailsea Youngwood20151,1690000953
North SomersetPill201552600001,895
North SomersetPortishead East20153,2546991,32800530
North SomersetPortishead North20151,39947248600499
North SomersetPortishead South20151,349536527000
North SomersetPortishead West20154,6389212,092001,582
North SomersetWinford20151,30300001,160
North SomersetWrington20151,1192461,168000
North SomersetYatton20153,3679352,05309171,442

Somerset NorthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
North SomersetBackwell3,6941,94509140002,859
North SomersetClevedon East3,499865456407009802,708
North SomersetClevedon South3,5871,5227704830002,775
North SomersetClevedon Walton3,4221,4064070008352,648
North SomersetClevedon West3,2381,2016230006822,506
North SomersetClevedon Yeo3,5781,6066615020002,769
North SomersetGordano Valley3,3391,35132025633203252,584
North SomersetLong Ashton6,8112,957737842073405,270
North SomersetNailsea Golden Valley3,42581400001,8362,650
North SomersetNailsea West End3,0841,03100001,3562,387
North SomersetNailsea Yeo3,3781,0984240001,0922,614
North SomersetNailsea Youngwood2,8591,21900009942,213
North SomersetPill3,52259200002,1332,725
North SomersetPortishead East4,8502,102451858003423,753
North SomersetPortishead North3,9261,488502517005313,038
North SomersetPortishead South3,2241,3955545450002,494
North SomersetPortishead West7,2182,8065571,266009575,586
North SomersetWinford3,3281,36200001,2132,575
North SomersetWrington3,3051,1302481,1790002,557
North SomersetYatton6,8272,0415671,24505568745,283
 Total80,11429,9317,2779,0143321,29014,15061,994

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Somerset NorthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
North SomersetBackwell3,7141,831437449060832,860
North SomersetClevedon East3,5181,1689852640702222,709
North SomersetClevedon South3,6061,426888331047832,775
North SomersetClevedon Walton3,4401,5866501400662062,648
North SomersetClevedon West3,2551,1609341600731792,506
North SomersetClevedon Yeo3,5971,520804329032842,769
North SomersetGordano Valley3,3571,5726951520441212,584
North SomersetLong Ashton6,8472,9171,25344604991555,270
North SomersetNailsea Golden Valley3,4431,3607091630783402,650
North SomersetNailsea West End3,1001,2986511190552642,387
North SomersetNailsea Yeo3,3961,3728081400512432,614
North SomersetNailsea Youngwood2,8741,3075251150572092,213
North SomersetPill3,5411,0941,0641130763792,726
North SomersetPortishead East4,8762,1269784180641673,753
North SomersetPortishead North3,9471,6528163320701673,037
North SomersetPortishead South3,2411,362704324025802,495
North SomersetPortishead West7,2563,1731,3306800853175,585
North SomersetWinford3,3461,663502790782532,575
North SomersetWrington3,3221,416540469055762,556
North SomersetYatton6,8632,6021,23176003903005,283
 Total80,11433,60516,5045,98301,9753,92861,994

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Somerset North

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Somerset North.

Somerset NorthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
North SomersetBackwell3,7141,7434144508090832,860
North SomersetClevedon East3,5181,085956265811002222,709
North SomersetClevedon South3,6061,3418593328378832,776
North SomersetClevedon Walton3,4401,50462214179952062,647
North SomersetClevedon West3,2551,083907161751011792,506
North SomersetClevedon Yeo3,5971,4357753308363842,770
North SomersetGordano Valley3,3571,49266815377731212,584
North SomersetLong Ashton6,8472,7551,1974491575571555,270
North SomersetNailsea Golden Valley3,4431,278681164791073402,649
North SomersetNailsea West End3,1001,22462612071812642,386
North SomersetNailsea Yeo3,3961,29178014178802432,613
North SomersetNailsea Youngwood2,8741,23950111666822092,213
North SomersetPill3,5411,0101,035114811063792,725
North SomersetPortishead East4,8762,0109384201121061673,753
North SomersetPortishead North3,9471,558784334911041673,038
North SomersetPortishead South3,2411,2856773257453802,494
North SomersetPortishead West7,2563,0011,2716831661473175,585
North SomersetWinford3,3461,58447580761062532,574
North SomersetWrington3,3221,3375134707683762,555
North SomersetYatton6,8632,4391,1757631574493005,283
 Total80,11431,69415,8546,0111,8422,6613,92861,990

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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