Somerset North East: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Somerset North East: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Jacob Rees-Mogg  (CON)
County/Area: Bristol area (South West)
Electorate: 71,350
Turnout: 75.7%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON28,99253.6%49.9%
LAB18,75734.7%35.1%
LIB4,4618.3%8.3%
Green1,2452.3%2.8%
OTH5881.1%1.6%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
CON Majority10,23518.9%Pred Maj 14.8%
Chance of
winning
CON
76%
LAB
23%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
UKIP
0%

Somerset North East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Somerset North East constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position1° Left1° Right
National Position1° Int1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %50%53%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health49%47%48%
UK Born95%92%88%
Good Education41%40%39%
Good Job53%50%51%
High SEC55%52%51%
Average Age51.750.548.5
ABC1 Class56%54%53%

Somerset North East ranks #407 for "Leave", #383 for "Right" and #408 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Somerset North East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Somerset North East: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Somerset North East

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Somerset North East at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Somerset North East. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Somerset North EastActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Bath and North East SomersetBathavon North20155,2371,4734,1352887880
Bath and North East SomersetBathavon South201564412586001770
Bath and North East SomersetBathavon West201571203880328110
Bath and North East SomersetChew Valley North2015969030502840
Bath and North East SomersetChew Valley South20151,071020203210
Bath and North East SomersetClutton201573618354001310
Bath and North East SomersetFarmborough20151,1910409000
Bath and North East SomersetHigh Littleton20151,102028403580
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham East20153,6601,0981,43704770
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham North20152,6461,1792794374230
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham South20152,1261,3104684442440
Bath and North East SomersetMendip20151,034024203440
Bath and North East SomersetMidsomer Norton North20152,8791,7134620425259
Bath and North East SomersetMidsomer Norton Redfield20153,04388854005930
Bath and North East SomersetPaulton20151,3742,031250589235673
Bath and North East SomersetPeasedown20151,5481,51376702832,454
Bath and North East SomersetPublow and Whitchurch2015979021002850
Bath and North East SomersetRadstock20151,2801,4991,1510402707
Bath and North East SomersetSaltford20152,4843321,3643553580
Bath and North East SomersetTimsbury20153592001740134736
Bath and North East SomersetWestfield20151,3062,097414749284738

Somerset North EastTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Bath and North East SomersetBathavon North5,6941,9485481,53810729304,434
Bath and North East SomersetBathavon South2,424673131899018501,888
Bath and North East SomersetBathavon West1,866673036703101041,454
Bath and North East SomersetChew Valley North1,9069230291027101,485
Bath and North East SomersetChew Valley South1,8869870186029601,469
Bath and North East SomersetClutton2,046738183541013101,593
Bath and North East SomersetFarmborough1,9741,14503930001,538
Bath and North East SomersetHigh Littleton2,4021,1820305038401,871
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham East4,3081,841552723024003,356
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham North4,1091,70676018028227303,201
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham South4,0511,46190032230516803,156
Bath and North East SomersetMendip2,1411,0640249035401,667
Bath and North East SomersetMidsomer Norton North4,6641,8231,08529302691643,634
Bath and North East SomersetMidsomer Norton Redfield4,0821,911558339037203,180
Bath and North East SomersetPaulton4,2458821,3041603781514323,307
Bath and North East SomersetPeasedown5,14494592346801731,4984,007
Bath and North East SomersetPublow and Whitchurch1,9611,0150218029501,528
Bath and North East SomersetRadstock4,4708841,03679502784893,482
Bath and North East SomersetSaltford3,2471,28417270518418502,530
Bath and North East SomersetTimsbury2,09236520317701367481,629
Bath and North East SomersetWestfield4,6678501,3642694871854803,635
 Total69,37924,3009,7199,4181,7434,9493,91554,044

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Somerset North EastEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Bath and North East SomersetBathavon North5,8562,4121,2815920125264,436
Bath and North East SomersetBathavon South2,493981481321093131,889
Bath and North East SomersetBathavon West1,919868356137077161,454
Bath and North East SomersetChew Valley North1,96099728313106681,485
Bath and North East SomersetChew Valley South1,9401,01831478047121,469
Bath and North East SomersetClutton2,10489846619202891,593
Bath and North East SomersetFarmborough2,0301,10328413001281,537
Bath and North East SomersetHigh Littleton2,4701,23641713607491,872
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham East4,4302,003933358046163,356
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham North4,2261,7121,271137065153,200
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham South4,1661,6201,297185040143,156
Bath and North East SomersetMendip2,2021,108371117058131,667
Bath and North East SomersetMidsomer Norton North4,7971,9721,322233079283,634
Bath and North East SomersetMidsomer Norton Redfield4,1981,8971,054151060193,181
Bath and North East SomersetPaulton4,3661,3181,677225040463,306
Bath and North East SomersetPeasedown5,2901,7241,7932950541394,005
Bath and North East SomersetPublow and Whitchurch2,0171,0623268504681,527
Bath and North East SomersetRadstock4,5971,3961,589348090583,481
Bath and North East SomersetSaltford3,3391,501668298049152,531
Bath and North East SomersetTimsbury2,15174367698046661,629
Bath and North East SomersetWestfield4,8001,4221,898214050513,635
 Total69,37928,99118,7574,46101,24558954,044

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Somerset North East

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Somerset North East.

Somerset North EastPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Bath and North East SomersetBathavon North5,8562,2451,298592105148474,435
Bath and North East SomersetBathavon South2,49391048832145103221,889
Bath and North East SomersetBathavon West1,9198133621373585231,455
Bath and North East SomersetChew Valley North1,9609412891313574151,485
Bath and North East SomersetChew Valley South1,940963320783555191,470
Bath and North East SomersetClutton2,1048384721923836161,592
Bath and North East SomersetFarmborough2,0301,0452901303620151,536
Bath and North East SomersetHigh Littleton2,4701,1664241364484181,872
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham East4,4301,8779463588063323,356
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham North4,2261,5921,2831377682303,200
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham South4,1661,5011,3091857556293,155
Bath and North East SomersetMendip2,2021,0453781174067211,668
Bath and North East SomersetMidsomer Norton North4,7971,8361,3362338698453,634
Bath and North East SomersetMidsomer Norton Redfield4,1981,7781,0661517676343,181
Bath and North East SomersetPaulton4,3661,1941,6902257857613,305
Bath and North East SomersetPeasedown5,2901,5741,80929595751584,006
Bath and North East SomersetPublow and Whitchurch2,0171,005332853654151,527
Bath and North East SomersetRadstock4,5971,2651,60334883108743,481
Bath and North East SomersetSaltford3,3391,4066782986062272,531
Bath and North East SomersetTimsbury2,151682682983954741,629
Bath and North East SomersetWestfield4,8001,2851,9122148669683,634
 Total69,37926,96118,9674,4611,2831,52684354,041

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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