Somerton and Frome: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Somerton and Frome: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: David Warburton  (CON)
County/Area: Somerset (South West)
Electorate: 84,435
Turnout: 75.3%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON36,23157.0%53.2%
LIB13,32521.0%21.0%
LAB10,99817.3%17.7%
Green2,0473.2%3.7%
OTH9911.6%2.0%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
CON Majority22,90636.0%Pred Maj 32.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
91%
LIB
4%
LAB
5%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
UKIP
0%

Somerton and Frome : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Somerton and Frome constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position3° Right1° Right
National Position1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %52%53%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born94%92%88%
Good Education41%40%39%
Good Job49%50%51%
High SEC52%52%51%
Average Age52.750.548.5
ABC1 Class52%54%53%

Somerton and Frome ranks #362 for "Leave", #272 for "Right" and #370 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Somerton and Frome: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Somerton and Frome: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Somerton and Frome

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Somerton and Frome at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Somerton and Frome. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Somerton and FromeActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
MendipAmmerdown2015639048102820
MendipBeckington and Selwood2015713028702500
MendipButleigh and Baltonsborough20158310534000
MendipColeford and Holcombe20152,31007524339580
MendipCranmore, Doulting and Nunney2015615055316600
MendipCreech2015699037701930
MendipFrome Berkley Down20151,62901,0547036010
MendipFrome College20151,8082661,59105980
MendipFrome Keyford20155964561,3573891,5760
MendipFrome Market20156654251,03101,6740
MendipFrome Oakfield20152461174881412870
MendipFrome Park20157835071,71687800
MendipPostlebury2015700029703440
MendipRode and Norton St Philip20151,0260439000
MendipThe Pennards and Ditcheat20158690498000
South SomersetBlackmoor Vale20153,2152752,001000
South SomersetBruton201584311431002460
South SomersetBurrow Hill2015878148399000
South SomersetCamelot20151,12110625118100
South SomersetCary20152,9252072,40304820
South SomersetCurry Rivel2015826148000601
South SomersetIslemoor20151,129155417000
South SomersetLangport and Huish201568519947302950
South SomersetMartock20153,1234691,935000
South SomersetMilborne Port2015765184766000
South SomersetNorthstone20151,200200527000
South SomersetTower20159477324102740
South SomersetTurn Hill20151,071142635000
South SomersetWessex20152,1145891,326000
South SomersetWincanton20152,4662231,3335313070

Somerton and FromeTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
MendipAmmerdown1,9256680503029501,466
MendipBeckington and Selwood1,7027390298025901,296
MendipButleigh and Baltonsborough1,76581805260001,344
MendipColeford and Holcombe3,8111,505049028262402,901
MendipCranmore, Doulting and Nunney1,9156720604181001,457
MendipCreech1,8047570408020901,374
MendipFrome Berkley Down3,6341,130073148841702,766
MendipFrome College3,5461,1451681,008037902,700
MendipFrome Keyford3,8884033099182631,06702,960
MendipFrome Market4,15655435486001,39603,164
MendipFrome Oakfield2,05930214359817335201,568
MendipFrome Park3,9186013891,318674002,982
MendipPostlebury1,7707030298034601,347
MendipRode and Norton St Philip1,80096004110001,371
MendipThe Pennards and Ditcheat1,75384804860001,334
South SomersetBlackmoor Vale4,4121,9671681,2240003,359
South SomersetBruton2,354999135367029101,792
South SomersetBurrow Hill1,7858371413810001,359
South SomersetCamelot2,2301,147108257185001,697
South SomersetCary4,4411,6441161,350027103,381
South SomersetCurry Rivel2,1028391500006111,600
South SomersetIslemoor2,2641,1441574230001,724
South SomersetLangport and Huish2,286722210498031101,741
South SomersetMartock4,6341,9942991,2350003,528
South SomersetMilborne Port2,2697711857720001,728
South SomersetNorthstone2,4381,1561935080001,857
South SomersetTower1,94991571233026501,484
South SomersetTurn Hill2,2549951325900001,717
South SomersetWessex4,3861,7524881,0990003,339
South SomersetWincanton4,2751,65214989335620603,256
 Total83,52530,3394,06519,2872,6026,68861163,592

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Somerton and FromeEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
MendipAmmerdown1,946838212318083141,465
MendipBeckington and Selwood1,721854151205070151,295
MendipButleigh and Baltonsborough1,78488389318041121,343
MendipColeford and Holcombe3,8531,7015724690128312,901
MendipCranmore, Doulting and Nunney1,936868198332042171,457
MendipCreech1,824846214246052151,373
MendipFrome Berkley Down3,6741,496642518077352,768
MendipFrome College3,5851,448484663079252,699
MendipFrome Keyford3,9301,0459616480258492,961
MendipFrome Market4,2011,2209146730313453,165
MendipFrome Oakfield2,0815954503960106201,567
MendipFrome Park3,9611,191891831036342,983
MendipPostlebury1,789862177210083161,348
MendipRode and Norton St Philip1,820938115293013121,371
MendipThe Pennards and Ditcheat1,77291994275034121,334
South SomersetBlackmoor Vale4,4602,194354748031333,360
South SomersetBruton2,3801,0472803270118211,793
South SomersetBurrow Hill1,804869192253032131,359
South SomersetCamelot2,2541,209193268010181,698
South SomersetCary4,4891,983404871089333,380
South SomersetCurry Rivel2,1259371551710173201,600
South SomersetIslemoor2,2891,108262318024131,725
South SomersetLangport and Huish2,311895341415074161,741
South SomersetMartock4,6842,112524831025343,526
South SomersetMilborne Port2,294972245473018191,727
South SomersetNorthstone2,4651,205221379037151,857
South SomersetTower1,9701,046151208065131,483
South SomersetTurn Hill2,2791,129211349011171,717
South SomersetWessex4,4341,946636703023313,339
South SomersetWincanton4,3221,875665615057443,256
 Total83,52536,23110,99813,32402,04699263,592

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Somerton and Frome

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Somerton and Frome.

Somerton and FromePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
MendipAmmerdown1,9467832183183591211,466
MendipBeckington and Selwood1,7218051562053177211,295
MendipButleigh and Baltonsborough1,784833943183248181,343
MendipColeford and Holcombe3,8531,59258346969143452,901
MendipCranmore, Doulting and Nunney1,9368132043323550241,458
MendipCreech1,8247942192463359211,372
MendipFrome Berkley Down3,6741,3926535186691482,768
MendipFrome College3,5851,3474956636493382,700
MendipFrome Keyford3,93093497364870273632,961
MendipFrome Market4,2011,10192667375329603,164
MendipFrome Oakfield2,08153645639637114271,566
MendipFrome Park3,9611,0799038317151482,983
MendipPostlebury1,7898111822103290221,347
MendipRode and Norton St Philip1,8208871202933320181,371
MendipThe Pennards and Ditcheat1,772869992753241181,334
South SomersetBlackmoor Vale4,4602,0683677488048493,360
South SomersetBruton2,38098028732743127291,793
South SomersetBurrow Hill1,8048181972533239191,358
South SomersetCamelot2,2541,1452002684019261,698
South SomersetCary4,4891,85641787180107493,380
South SomersetCurry Rivel2,12587716117138253271,599
South SomersetIslemoor2,2891,0432693184133211,725
South SomersetLangport and Huish2,3118303484154183241,741
South SomersetMartock4,6841,9805388318443503,526
South SomersetMilborne Port2,2949072524734127271,727
South SomersetNorthstone2,4651,1352283794447241,857
South SomersetTower1,9709901572083573201,483
South SomersetTurn Hill2,2791,0652183494120251,718
South SomersetWessex4,4341,8216497037940473,339
South SomersetWincanton4,3221,7536786157774593,256
 Total83,52533,84411,24713,3241,5112,3751,28863,589

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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