South Holland and The Deepings: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

South Holland and The Deepings: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: John Hayes  (CON)
County/Area: Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 76,381
Turnout: 65.9%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON35,17969.9%66.9%
LAB10,28220.4%19.5%
UKIP2,1854.3%7.5%
LIB1,4332.8%2.9%
Green8941.8%3.0%
OTH3420.7%0.3%
CON Majority24,89749.5%Pred Maj 47.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
98%
LAB
2%
UKIP
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

South Holland and The Deepings : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the South Holland and The Deepings constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position19° Right3° Right
National Position23° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %72%59%52%
British Identity22%27%29%
Good Health42%45%48%
UK Born91%91%88%
Good Education28%36%39%
Good Job41%48%51%
High SEC43%47%51%
Average Age52.049.148.5
ABC1 Class43%50%53%

South Holland and The Deepings ranks #14 for "Leave", #23 for "Right" and #6 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

South Holland and The Deepings: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

South Holland and The Deepings: Ward-by-ward

Workings for South Holland and The Deepings

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of South Holland and The Deepings at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of South Holland and The Deepings. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

South Holland and The DeepingsActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
South HollandCrowland and Deeping St Nicholas20153,565009034831,652
South HollandDonington, Quadring and Gosberton20154,96800001,677
South HollandFleet201572007000371
South HollandGedney2015588004060245
South HollandHolbeach Hurn20157190000324
South HollandHolbeach Town20154,421001,2900918
South HollandLong Sutton20153,99800004,226
South HollandMoulton, Weston and Cowbit20154,9294864681,1980847
South HollandPinchbeck and Surfleet20155,934001,1610961
South HollandSpalding Castle2015681000125229
South HollandSpalding Monks House20151,0260081701,398
South HollandSpalding St John's20151,0170073301,242
South HollandSpalding St Mary's20152,262008050523
South HollandSpalding St Paul's20151,6560086500
South HollandSpalding Wygate20152,62200001,389
South HollandSutton Bridge20151,0640048501,594
South HollandThe Saints20158390000413
South HollandWhaplode and Holbeach St John's20152,5020096900
South KestevenDeeping St James2015-1-1000-1
South KestevenMarket and West Deeping2015605022946601,647

South Holland and The DeepingsTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
South HollandCrowland and Deeping St Nicholas4,6691,647004172237633,050
South HollandDonington, Quadring and Gosberton5,3492,61300008823,495
South HollandFleet1,673678066003491,093
South HollandGedney1,7535440037502261,145
South HollandHolbeach Hurn1,71177100003471,118
South HollandHolbeach Town5,6252,4510071505093,675
South HollandLong Sutton5,4891,74300001,8433,586
South HollandMoulton, Weston and Cowbit5,1612,09620719951003603,372
South HollandPinchbeck and Surfleet5,1712,4880048704033,378
South HollandSpalding Castle1,9288290001522791,260
South HollandSpalding Monks House4,0038280065901,1282,615
South HollandSpalding St John's4,6061,0230073701,2493,009
South HollandSpalding St Mary's3,7821,5570055403602,471
South HollandSpalding St Paul's3,9731,70500891002,596
South HollandSpalding Wygate3,5031,49600007932,289
South HollandSutton Bridge3,3907500034201,1232,215
South HollandThe Saints1,93684800004171,265
South HollandWhaplode and Holbeach St John's3,1961,50500583002,088
South KestevenDeeping St James5,3311,1611,1610001,1613,483
South KestevenMarket and West Deeping4,765639024249201,7403,113
 Total77,01427,3721,3685076,76237513,93250,316

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

South Holland and The DeepingsEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
South HollandCrowland and Deeping St Nicholas4,6312,17853756112145233,051
South HollandDonington, Quadring and Gosberton5,3052,784531537728223,495
South HollandFleet1,65984715352171861,093
South HollandGedney1,73979422916831581,145
South HollandHolbeach Hurn1,69786518527211371,118
South HollandHolbeach Town5,5792,72856911619352173,675
South HollandLong Sutton5,4442,38387410713251383,585
South HollandMoulton, Weston and Cowbit5,1192,52051814016217153,372
South HollandPinchbeck and Surfleet5,1282,7454055013130173,378
South HollandSpalding Castle1,912929184132499111,260
South HollandSpalding Monks House3,9701,6077136317440182,615
South HollandSpalding St John's4,5681,8388047818378293,010
South HollandSpalding St Mary's3,7511,7334934714936122,470
South HollandSpalding St Paul's3,9401,768508262374892,596
South HollandSpalding Wygate3,4741,746422453324192,289
South HollandSutton Bridge3,3621,2606863716247232,215
South HollandThe Saints1,920983199194013111,265
South HollandWhaplode and Holbeach St John's3,1701,659218441412242,088
South KestevenDeeping St James5,2871,9541,2871481653253,483
South KestevenMarket and West Deeping4,7261,8587662969965303,114
 Total77,01435,17910,2811,4332,18689434450,316

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for South Holland and The Deepings

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of South Holland and The Deepings.

South Holland and The DeepingsPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
South HollandCrowland and Deeping St Nicholas4,6312,08550758210182103,052
South HollandDonington, Quadring and Gosberton5,3052,677502551846893,495
South HollandFleet1,65981414553503031,095
South HollandGedney1,739759216171212931,145
South HollandHolbeach Hurn1,69783117528562631,119
South HollandHolbeach Town5,5792,6165381183039373,675
South HollandLong Sutton5,4442,27383410925597163,584
South HollandMoulton, Weston and Cowbit5,1192,4174891422635563,372
South HollandPinchbeck and Surfleet5,1282,642383522286673,378
South HollandSpalding Castle1,912890174146411451,261
South HollandSpalding Monks House3,9701,527684652607282,616
South HollandSpalding St John's4,5681,74677180285116123,010
South HollandSpalding St Mary's3,7511,657466482286552,469
South HollandSpalding St Paul's3,9401,689480273187842,596
South HollandSpalding Wygate3,4741,676399461085282,289
South HollandSutton Bridge3,3621,1926623823875102,215
South HollandThe Saints1,92094418820802851,265
South HollandWhaplode and Holbeach St John's3,1701,595206451974322,088
South KestevenDeeping St James5,2871,8481,24915013196113,485
South KestevenMarket and West Deeping4,7261,763732298205104133,115
 Total77,01433,6419,8001,4633,7841,48914750,324

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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