St Austell and Newquay: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

St Austell and Newquay: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Steve Double  (CON)
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
Electorate: 78,618
Turnout: 69.0%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON26,85649.5%45.8%
LAB15,71429.0%29.4%
LIB11,64221.5%21.5%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
Green00.0%0.5%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority11,14220.6%Pred Maj 16.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
74%
LAB
21%
LIB
5%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

St Austell and Newquay : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the St Austell and Newquay constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position1° Right1° Right
National Position7° Nat1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %61%53%52%
British Identity23%27%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born96%92%88%
Good Education33%40%39%
Good Job42%50%51%
High SEC43%52%51%
Average Age51.550.548.5
ABC1 Class43%54%53%

St Austell and Newquay ranks #135 for "Leave", #309 for "Right" and #227 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

St Austell and Newquay: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

St Austell and Newquay: Ward-by-ward

Workings for St Austell and Newquay

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of St Austell and Newquay at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of St Austell and Newquay. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

St Austell and NewquayActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
CornwallBugle201322611431600291
CornwallFowey and Tywardreath2013329049000477
CornwallMevagissey2013316391184363620
CornwallMount Charles20132211025600465
CornwallNewlyn and Goonhavern2013555118000529
CornwallNewquay Central20130026700244
CornwallNewquay Pentire20132800516000
CornwallNewquay Treloggan20133270384000
CornwallNewquay Tretherras2013292026926000
CornwallNewquay Treviglas201323715621826600
CornwallPar and St Blazey Gate2013279035500263
CornwallPenwithick and Boscoppa2013165029500356
CornwallProbus, Tregony and Grampound20131384202830903
CornwallRoche2013670000784
CornwallRoseland20132524201750976
CornwallSt Austell Bay2013582129000546
CornwallSt Austell Bethel20131941152761730264
CornwallSt Austell Gover2013290126000475
CornwallSt Austell Poltair201323216832500187
CornwallSt Blazey201310518631000172
CornwallSt Columb Major20132047719300586
CornwallSt Dennis and Nanpean2013430000672
CornwallSt Enoder201300000960
CornwallSt Mawgan and Colan20135880000185
CornwallSt Mewan2013323031200367
CornwallSt Stephen-In-Brannel20130003310636

St Austell and NewquayTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallBugle2,727461232644005931,930
CornwallFowey and Tywardreath3,3526020897008732,372
CornwallMevagissey3,13153265831061110402,215
CornwallMount Charles3,600667308169001,4042,548
CornwallNewlyn and Goonhavern61920243000193438
CornwallNewquay Central2,993001,107001,0112,118
CornwallNewquay Pentire3,11577501,4290002,204
CornwallNewquay Treloggan3,2411,05501,2390002,294
CornwallNewquay Tretherras2,7636950641619001,955
CornwallNewquay Treviglas3,205613403564688002,268
CornwallPar and St Blazey Gate2,9416470824006102,081
CornwallPenwithick and Boscoppa3,5145030899001,0852,487
CornwallProbus, Tregony and Grampound53338120780249377
CornwallRoche2,97916600001,9422,108
CornwallRoseland801020703857
CornwallSt Austell Bay3,3441,0962430001,0282,367
CornwallSt Austell Bethel3,65149029169843706672,583
CornwallSt Austell Gover3,5048073510001,3222,480
CornwallSt Austell Poltair3,288592429829004772,327
CornwallSt Blazey3,5663436071,012005622,524
CornwallSt Columb Major3,918534201505001,5332,773
CornwallSt Dennis and Nanpean3,59215300002,3892,542
CornwallSt Enoder3,505000002,4802,480
CornwallSt Mawgan and Colan2,7341,47200004631,935
CornwallSt Mewan2,9436710649007632,083
CornwallSt Stephen-In-Brannel3,76700091301,7532,666
 Total76,60513,1243,78012,4163,35310421,43554,212

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

St Austell and NewquayEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallBugle2,7998395735180001,930
CornwallFowey and Tywardreath3,4401,2314686730002,372
CornwallMevagissey3,2131,1676793700002,216
CornwallMount Charles3,6951,2319673500002,548
CornwallNewlyn and Goonhavern63528710149000437
CornwallNewquay Central3,0728015267910002,118
CornwallNewquay Pentire3,1971,0282938830002,204
CornwallNewquay Treloggan3,3261,1123228600002,294
CornwallNewquay Tretherras2,8361,0533965060001,955
CornwallNewquay Treviglas3,2891,0636575480002,268
CornwallPar and St Blazey Gate3,0189734796290002,081
CornwallPenwithick and Boscoppa3,6061,1106777000002,487
CornwallProbus, Tregony and Grampound54720411953000376
CornwallRoche3,0571,1587721780002,108
CornwallRoseland823415800057
CornwallSt Austell Bay3,4321,4716532430002,367
CornwallSt Austell Bethel3,7471,1688335830002,584
CornwallSt Austell Gover3,5961,3858562390002,480
CornwallSt Austell Poltair3,3748607776890002,326
CornwallSt Blazey3,6608309427520002,524
CornwallSt Columb Major4,0211,3778555410002,773
CornwallSt Dennis and Nanpean3,6861,2769962710002,543
CornwallSt Enoder3,5971,3138972700002,480
CornwallSt Mawgan and Colan2,8061,4353251750001,935
CornwallSt Mewan3,0201,1534055250002,083
CornwallSt Stephen-In-Brannel3,8661,2961,1332370002,666
 Total76,60526,85515,71611,64100054,212

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for St Austell and Newquay

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of St Austell and Newquay.

St Austell and NewquayPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallBugle2,799767581518461091,931
CornwallFowey and Tywardreath3,4401,1424776735612112,371
CornwallMevagissey3,2131,0846883705311102,216
CornwallMount Charles3,6951,1359773506013122,547
CornwallNewlyn and Goonhavern635271103491022437
CornwallNewquay Central3,0727215347915011102,117
CornwallNewquay Pentire3,1979453028835211102,203
CornwallNewquay Treloggan3,3261,0263318605412112,294
CornwallNewquay Tretherras2,836980404506461091,955
CornwallNewquay Treviglas3,2899786665485412112,269
CornwallPar and St Blazey Gate3,0188954876294911102,081
CornwallPenwithick and Boscoppa3,6061,0176877005913122,488
CornwallProbus, Tregony and Grampound54719012053922376
CornwallRoche3,0571,0797801785011102,108
CornwallRoseland823215810056
CornwallSt Austell Bay3,4321,3826622435612112,366
CornwallSt Austell Bethel3,7471,0718435836113122,583
CornwallSt Austell Gover3,5961,2928662395913122,481
CornwallSt Austell Poltair3,3747737866895512112,326
CornwallSt Blazey3,6607359527526013122,524
CornwallSt Columb Major4,0211,2738665416614132,773
CornwallSt Dennis and Nanpean3,6861,1811,0062716013122,543
CornwallSt Enoder3,5971,2209072705913122,481
CornwallSt Mawgan and Colan2,8061,362333175461091,935
CornwallSt Mewan3,0201,0754135254911102,083
CornwallSt Stephen-In-Brannel3,8661,1961,1432376314122,665
 Total76,60524,82215,92911,6411,28327925554,209

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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