St Ives: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

St Ives: Overview

 Prediction: LIB gain from CON 

MP at 2017: Derek Thomas  (CON)
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
Electorate: 67,462
Turnout: 75.9%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON22,12043.2%39.4%
LIB21,80842.6%42.6%
LAB7,29814.2%14.6%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
Green00.0%0.5%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority3120.6%Pred Maj 3.2%
Chance of
winning
CON
46%
LIB
49%
LAB
4%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

St Ives : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the St Ives constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position2° Left1° Right
National Position1° Int1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %53%53%52%
British Identity25%27%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born95%92%88%
Good Education39%40%39%
Good Job46%50%51%
High SEC48%52%51%
Average Age53.150.548.5
ABC1 Class47%54%53%

St Ives ranks #327 for "Leave", #404 for "Right" and #425 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

St Ives: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

St Ives: Ward-by-ward

Workings for St Ives

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of St Ives at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of St Ives. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

St IvesActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
CornwallBreage, Germoe and Sithney20135620045800
CornwallCrowan and Wendron2013290100000978
CornwallGulval and Heamoor2013130088931700
CornwallGwinear-Gwithian and St Erth20134141186131142431
CornwallHelston North20134940681840590
CornwallHelston South201314102152100521
CornwallLelant and Carbis Bay2013393102112256156114
CornwallLudgvan2013477004262830
CornwallMarazion and Perranuthnoe2013578005112890
CornwallMullion and Grade-Ruan2013285003410577
CornwallNewlyn and Mousehole20136951598226515992
CornwallPenzance Central20131273983541780211
CornwallPenzance East20131243783581948991
CornwallPenzance Promenade20131182833681980484
CornwallPorthleven and Helston West20131890351560706
CornwallSt Buryan20136082061100150429
CornwallSt Ives East20133397031170471182
CornwallSt Ives West201312411166194301308
CornwallSt Just In Penwith20131062515743040332
CornwallSt Keverne and Meneage20136316903555020
Isles of ScillyBryher201300000-1
Isles of ScillySt Agnes201300000-2
Isles of ScillySt Martin's201300000157
Isles of ScillySt Mary's201300005576,687
Isles of ScillyTresco201300000-2

St IvesTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallBreage, Germoe and Sithney3,3701,451001,182002,633
CornwallCrowan and Wendron2,2483721280001,2561,756
CornwallGulval and Heamoor3,34025401,736619002,609
CornwallGwinear-Gwithian and St Erth1,055248713718625258825
CornwallHelston North3,6171,045014438901,2482,826
CornwallHelston South4,109416063562001,5393,210
CornwallLelant and Carbis Bay2,9818082102305263212342,329
CornwallLudgvan3,1779980089259202,482
CornwallMarazion and Perranuthnoe3,5751,172001,03658602,794
CornwallMullion and Grade-Ruan3,0395620067301,1392,374
CornwallNewlyn and Mousehole3,3291,2452851474752851652,602
CornwallPenzance Central3,12524576668234304062,442
CornwallPenzance East3,5422788488034352002042,768
CornwallPenzance Promenade2,87518343857030707492,247
CornwallPorthleven and Helston West3,26944408236701,6602,553
CornwallSt Buryan3,6431,15139020802848122,845
CornwallSt Ives East2,851598123553008313212,228
CornwallSt Ives West3,2812882581534506997152,563
CornwallSt Just In Penwith3,6171914531,03554805992,826
CornwallSt Keverne and Meneage3,8251,211132068196302,987
Isles of ScillyBryher65000005151
Isles of ScillySt Agnes66000005252
Isles of ScillySt Martin's105000008282
Isles of ScillySt Mary's1,3290000809581,038
Isles of ScillyTresco13500000105105
 Total65,56813,1604,1026,51710,0294,86612,55351,227

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

St IvesEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallBreage, Germoe and Sithney3,4671,6621708020002,634
CornwallCrowan and Wendron2,3138472116980001,756
CornwallGulval and Heamoor3,4366863531,5700002,609
CornwallGwinear-Gwithian and St Erth1,085379125320000824
CornwallHelston North3,7211,4382511,1360002,825
CornwallHelston South4,2281,2893091,6120003,210
CornwallLelant and Carbis Bay3,0671,1872668760002,329
CornwallLudgvan3,2691,3641699490002,482
CornwallMarazion and Perranuthnoe3,6781,5052751,0140002,794
CornwallMullion and Grade-Ruan3,1271,1332021,0390002,374
CornwallNewlyn and Mousehole3,4251,2923809290002,601
CornwallPenzance Central3,2155498091,0840002,442
CornwallPenzance East3,6445599001,3090002,768
CornwallPenzance Promenade2,9587144701,0620002,246
CornwallPorthleven and Helston West3,3631,1142731,1670002,554
CornwallSt Buryan3,7481,3644681,0140002,846
CornwallSt Ives East2,9331,0912099280002,228
CornwallSt Ives West3,3768715531,1390002,563
CornwallSt Just In Penwith3,7217615481,5160002,825
CornwallSt Keverne and Meneage3,9351,7402441,0030002,987
Isles of ScillyBryher671862700051
Isles of ScillySt Agnes682362300052
Isles of ScillySt Martin's1083464200082
Isles of ScillySt Mary's1,367454894950001,038
Isles of ScillyTresco13945852000105
 Total65,56822,1197,30021,80600051,227

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for St Ives

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of St Ives.

St IvesPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallBreage, Germoe and Sithney3,4671,5631808026314122,634
CornwallCrowan and Wendron2,31378121869842981,756
CornwallGulval and Heamoor3,4365883631,5706213122,608
CornwallGwinear-Gwithian and St Erth1,0853481283202044824
CornwallHelston North3,7211,3322621,1366715132,825
CornwallHelston South4,2281,1683221,6127617153,210
CornwallLelant and Carbis Bay3,0671,1002758765512112,329
CornwallLudgvan3,2691,2711799495913122,483
CornwallMarazion and Perranuthnoe3,6781,4002861,0146614132,793
CornwallMullion and Grade-Ruan3,1271,0442111,0395612112,373
CornwallNewlyn and Mousehole3,4251,1943909296213122,600
CornwallPenzance Central3,2154578191,0845813112,442
CornwallPenzance East3,6444559111,3096614132,768
CornwallPenzance Promenade2,9586304791,0625312102,246
CornwallPorthleven and Helston West3,3631,0182831,1676113122,554
CornwallSt Buryan3,7481,2574791,0146815132,846
CornwallSt Ives East2,9331,0072189285312102,228
CornwallSt Ives West3,3767755631,1396113122,563
CornwallSt Just In Penwith3,7216555591,5166715132,825
CornwallSt Keverne and Meneage3,9351,6282561,0037115142,987
Isles of ScillyBryher671662710050
Isles of ScillySt Agnes682162310051
Isles of ScillySt Martin's1083164220081
Isles of ScillySt Mary's1,3674159349525551,038
Isles of ScillyTresco13941852210104
 Total65,56820,1957,50021,8061,21726423651,218

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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