Staffordshire Moorlands: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Staffordshire Moorlands: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Karen Bradley  (CON)
County/Area: Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 66,009
Turnout: 67.6%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON25,96358.1%54.4%
LAB15,13333.9%34.3%
MIN1,5243.4%3.4%
LIB1,4943.3%3.4%
Green5411.2%1.7%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority10,83024.3%Pred Maj 20.1%
Chance of
winning
CON
81%
LAB
19%
MIN
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Staffordshire Moorlands : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Staffordshire Moorlands constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWest MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position6° Right2° Right
National Position13° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %64%59%52%
British Identity25%28%29%
Good Health44%45%48%
UK Born98%89%88%
Good Education36%35%39%
Good Job48%48%51%
High SEC48%46%51%
Average Age52.148.748.5
ABC1 Class49%49%53%

Staffordshire Moorlands ranks #91 for "Leave", #187 for "Right" and #76 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Staffordshire Moorlands: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Staffordshire Moorlands: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Staffordshire Moorlands

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Staffordshire Moorlands at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Staffordshire Moorlands. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Staffordshire MoorlandsActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Newcastle-under-LymeNewchapel2015929633001900
Staffordshire MoorlandsAlton20156662000000
Staffordshire MoorlandsBagnall and Stanley2015742117610640
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph East201503,82807230734
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph Moor201516285000758
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph North20150861604004,474
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph South2015027940800252
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph West20151,0521,773003822,172
Staffordshire MoorlandsBrown Edge and Endon20153,3591,4452,4160243112
Staffordshire MoorlandsCaverswall20155850000343
Staffordshire MoorlandsCellarhead2015-200000
Staffordshire MoorlandsCheddleton20154,53798700744737
Staffordshire MoorlandsChurnet20151,3970000960
Staffordshire MoorlandsDane2015-100000
Staffordshire MoorlandsHamps Valley2015726171000234
Staffordshire MoorlandsHorton20159512340000
Staffordshire MoorlandsIpstones2015403156000615
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek East20152,5221,3342115374071,253
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek North20159383,177004470
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek South20152,3112,29117103841,727
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek West20153,07269738004001,473
Staffordshire MoorlandsManifold20158880020400
Staffordshire MoorlandsWerrington20151,714958000554

Staffordshire MoorlandsTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Newcastle-under-LymeNewchapel2,8371,0657250021802,008
Staffordshire MoorlandsAlton1,0995981800000778
Staffordshire MoorlandsBagnall and Stanley1,266676107560580897
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph East5,17302,651050105083,660
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph Moor1,33915380000715948
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph North4,0080411288002,1372,836
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph South1,389029242700264983
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph West4,252588992002141,2153,009
Staffordshire MoorlandsBrown Edge and Endon4,0111,259541905091422,838
Staffordshire MoorlandsCaverswall1,4096290000369998
Staffordshire MoorlandsCellarhead2,6581,881000001,881
Staffordshire MoorlandsCheddleton4,3932,013438003303273,108
Staffordshire MoorlandsChurnet2,5361,06400007311,795
Staffordshire MoorlandsDane1,27290000000900
Staffordshire MoorlandsHamps Valley1,5016821610002201,063
Staffordshire MoorlandsHorton1,44782220200001,024
Staffordshire MoorlandsIpstones1,4513521360005381,026
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek East4,0511,154611972461865732,867
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek North4,3896392,1630030403,106
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek South4,6811,1121,1028201858313,312
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek West3,7931,36931116901786572,684
Staffordshire MoorlandsManifold1,51887400201001,075
Staffordshire MoorlandsWerrington2,6309895530003201,862
 Total63,10318,81911,6562,0249481,7649,44744,658

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Staffordshire MoorlandsEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Newcastle-under-LymeNewchapel2,9681,11379129043322,008
Staffordshire MoorlandsAlton1,1505501681902119777
Staffordshire MoorlandsBagnall and Stanley1,3246881532801612897
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph East5,4111,0792,41958041003,660
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph Moor1,40159327940270948
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph North4,1931,538930147042182,837
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph South1,4534243611610235983
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph West4,4481,5011,286390411423,009
Staffordshire MoorlandsBrown Edge and Endon4,1961,581780402020562,839
Staffordshire MoorlandsCaverswall1,47476917750641998
Staffordshire MoorlandsCellarhead2,7801,5192804101391,880
Staffordshire MoorlandsCheddleton4,5952,22372224059803,108
Staffordshire MoorlandsChurnet2,6531,3003759020911,795
Staffordshire MoorlandsDane1,33177893150310899
Staffordshire MoorlandsHamps Valley1,5707652282108401,062
Staffordshire MoorlandsHorton1,5148071821407151,025
Staffordshire MoorlandsIpstones1,51866426221018621,027
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek East4,2381,663935970691032,867
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek North4,5911,0971,86731050613,106
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek South4,8971,6571,343970821333,312
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek West3,9681,6856961520511002,684
Staffordshire MoorlandsManifold1,58884316244012141,075
Staffordshire MoorlandsWerrington2,7511,1276433802531,863
 Total63,10325,96415,1321,49605411,52644,658

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Staffordshire Moorlands

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Staffordshire Moorlands.

Staffordshire MoorlandsPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Newcastle-under-LymeNewchapel2,9681,037799294853412,007
Staffordshire MoorlandsAlton1,15052117119192523778
Staffordshire MoorlandsBagnall and Stanley1,32465415728212116897
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph East5,4119402,4335888231173,659
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph Moor1,401557283423774948
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph North4,1931,43194114768192312,837
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph South1,45338736516124740984
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph West4,4481,3871,2983972571563,009
Staffordshire MoorlandsBrown Edge and Endon4,1961,4747914026835692,839
Staffordshire MoorlandsCaverswall1,4747311815241146998
Staffordshire MoorlandsCellarhead2,7801,448287414511481,880
Staffordshire MoorlandsCheddleton4,5952,105734247475953,107
Staffordshire MoorlandsChurnet2,6531,23238294329991,794
Staffordshire MoorlandsDane1,331744971522814900
Staffordshire MoorlandsHamps Valley1,570725232212514451,062
Staffordshire MoorlandsHorton1,514768186142512201,025
Staffordshire MoorlandsIpstones1,518625266212523671,027
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek East4,2381,5549469769841162,866
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek North4,5919791,879317466763,105
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek South4,8971,5321,3569779991493,312
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek West3,9681,58370715264651132,684
Staffordshire MoorlandsManifold1,588802166442618191,075
Staffordshire MoorlandsWerrington2,7511,056650384512621,863
 Total63,10324,27215,3071,4961,0717741,73644,656

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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