Staffordshire South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Staffordshire South: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Gavin Williamson  (CON)
County/Area: Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 73,453
Turnout: 69.6%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON35,65669.8%66.7%
LAB12,92325.3%24.3%
LIB1,3482.6%2.7%
Green1,1822.3%3.4%
UKIP00.0%2.9%
CON Majority22,73344.5%Pred Maj 42.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
97%
LAB
3%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%

Staffordshire South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Staffordshire South constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWest MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position14° Right2° Right
National Position17° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %65%59%52%
British Identity22%28%29%
Good Health45%45%48%
UK Born97%89%88%
Good Education37%35%39%
Good Job55%48%51%
High SEC56%46%51%
Average Age51.548.748.5
ABC1 Class57%49%53%

Staffordshire South ranks #70 for "Leave", #42 for "Right" and #24 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Staffordshire South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Staffordshire South: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Staffordshire South

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Staffordshire South at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Staffordshire South. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Staffordshire SouthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
South StaffordshireBilbrook20152,614616004020
South StaffordshireBrewood and Coven20156,8553,1600000
South StaffordshireCheslyn Hay North and Saredon201598171901,058174543
South StaffordshireCheslyn Hay South20151,78380809900242
South StaffordshireCodsall North2015-200000
South StaffordshireCodsall South2015-200000
South StaffordshireEssington201590400003,228
South StaffordshireFeatherstone and Shareshill20151,026777002771,998
South StaffordshireGreat Wyrley Landywood20153,0431,3710000
South StaffordshireGreat Wyrley Town20154,9732,548082500
South StaffordshireHimley and Swindon2015658003601350
South StaffordshireHuntington and Hatherton20151,1051,4200000
South StaffordshireKinver20158,1841,0550000
South StaffordshirePattingham and Patshull2015-100000
South StaffordshirePerton Dippons20156380000446
South StaffordshirePerton East20154450000772
South StaffordshirePerton Lakeside20153,6696600002,713
South StaffordshireTrysull and Seisdon2015-100000
South StaffordshireWombourne North and Lower Penn20156,465001,10600
South StaffordshireWombourne South East2015-200000
South StaffordshireWombourne South West2015-200000

Staffordshire SouthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
South StaffordshireBilbrook3,8891,6984000026102,359
South StaffordshireBrewood and Coven5,9402,4671,13700003,604
South StaffordshireCheslyn Hay North and Saredon3,84665948307101173652,334
South StaffordshireCheslyn Hay South3,461979444054401332,100
South StaffordshireCodsall North3,6472,213000002,213
South StaffordshireCodsall South3,7202,257000002,257
South StaffordshireEssington4,40458500002,0872,672
South StaffordshireFeatherstone and Shareshill5,155787596002121,5323,127
South StaffordshireGreat Wyrley Landywood4,4601,86584000002,705
South StaffordshireGreat Wyrley Town5,5141,9931,0210331003,345
South StaffordshireHimley and Swindon1,8156280034412901,101
South StaffordshireHuntington and Hatherton4,6121,2241,57400002,798
South StaffordshireKinver6,5043,49545100003,946
South StaffordshirePattingham and Patshull2,0211,226000001,226
South StaffordshirePerton Dippons1,82865300004561,109
South StaffordshirePerton East2,06845900007961,255
South StaffordshirePerton Lakeside5,7511,8183270001,3443,489
South StaffordshireTrysull and Seisdon1,9991,213000001,213
South StaffordshireWombourne North and Lower Penn5,8803,04600521003,567
South StaffordshireWombourne South East3,4672,103000002,103
South StaffordshireWombourne South West4,2622,586000002,586
 Total84,24333,9547,27302,4507196,71351,109

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Staffordshire SouthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
South StaffordshireBilbrook3,3911,57858531016502,359
South StaffordshireBrewood and Coven5,1792,5618919805403,604
South StaffordshireCheslyn Hay North and Saredon3,3531,143954125011202,334
South StaffordshireCheslyn Hay South3,0181,2537416703902,100
South StaffordshireCodsall North3,1801,9282251904102,213
South StaffordshireCodsall South3,2441,9682025003702,257
South StaffordshireEssington3,8401,3921,03217507302,672
South StaffordshireFeatherstone and Shareshill4,4951,5051,303153016603,127
South StaffordshireGreat Wyrley Landywood3,8891,7409114001502,706
South StaffordshireGreat Wyrley Town4,8082,0911,1943102803,344
South StaffordshireHimley and Swindon1,5837991823009101,102
South StaffordshireHuntington and Hatherton4,0211,5111,255502702,798
South StaffordshireKinver5,6713,3525002207203,946
South StaffordshirePattingham and Patshull1,7621,1031021101001,226
South StaffordshirePerton Dippons1,5947792327002801,109
South StaffordshirePerton East1,8037244227903001,255
South StaffordshirePerton Lakeside5,0142,2211,01616708503,489
South StaffordshireTrysull and Seisdon1,7431,12372501301,213
South StaffordshireWombourne North and Lower Penn5,1272,9305128703903,568
South StaffordshireWombourne South East3,0231,8531675702702,104
South StaffordshireWombourne South West3,7162,1044262702902,586
 Total84,24335,65812,9241,34901,181051,109

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Staffordshire South

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Staffordshire South.

Staffordshire SouthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
South StaffordshireBilbrook3,3911,505558327219202,359
South StaffordshireBrewood and Coven5,1792,4498501001109503,604
South StaffordshireCheslyn Hay North and Saredon3,3531,0719271267113902,334
South StaffordshireCheslyn Hay South3,0181,18871768646302,100
South StaffordshireCodsall North3,1801,85921220596302,213
South StaffordshireCodsall South3,2441,89819051595902,257
South StaffordshireEssington3,8401,3091,0011768210302,671
South StaffordshireFeatherstone and Shareshill4,4951,4081,2671559620203,128
South StaffordshireGreat Wyrley Landywood3,8891,65688041834602,706
South StaffordshireGreat Wyrley Town4,8081,9871,156331026603,344
South StaffordshireHimley and Swindon1,583765172313210301,103
South StaffordshireHuntington and Hatherton4,0211,4241,2237865902,799
South StaffordshireKinver5,6713,2304712410911203,946
South StaffordshirePattingham and Patshull1,7621,0659612322201,227
South StaffordshirePerton Dippons1,59474521971344101,110
South StaffordshirePerton East1,80368540880384401,255
South StaffordshirePerton Lakeside5,0142,11397616910712503,490
South StaffordshireTrysull and Seisdon1,7431,085686302401,213
South StaffordshireWombourne North and Lower Penn5,1272,819483891017603,568
South StaffordshireWombourne South East3,0231,78815758544702,104
South StaffordshireWombourne South West3,7162,02440228755702,586
 Total84,24334,07312,4331,3771,4961,738051,117

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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