Stoke-on-Trent Central: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Stoke-on-Trent Central: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2015: Tristram Hunt  (LAB)
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
Electorate: 62,250
Turnout: 49.9%
2015
Votes
2015
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB12,22039.3%33.3%
UKIP7,04122.7%22.0%
CON7,00822.5%27.2%
MIN2,1206.8%6.8%
LIB1,2964.2%6.5%
Green1,1233.6%3.5%
OTH2760.9%0.8%
LAB Majority5,17916.7%Pred Maj 6.1%

Result shown is the original general election result. Mr Gareth Snell (Lab) held the seat in a by-election on 23 February 2017 after Tristram Hunt resigned as an MP in January 2017 to head the V&A museum.

Chance of
winning
LAB
40%
UKIP
16%
CON
39%
MIN
0%
LIB
3%
Green
1%
OTH
0%

Stoke-on-Trent Central : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Stoke-on-Trent Central constituency, the 'Severn' region and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatRegionAll GB
Party WinnerLABCONCON
Economic Position4° Left5° Right
National Position14° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %67%59%52%
British Identity34%37%37%
Good Health42%46%48%
UK Born88%95%88%
Good Education31%38%39%
Good Job36%49%51%
High SEC33%51%51%
Average Age45.750.048.5
ABC1 Class39%52%53%

Stoke-on-Trent Central ranks #54 for "Leave", #434 for "Right" and #58 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, English-British, Welsh-British, Scottish-British, Northern Irish-British, Cornish-British, or Irish-British.
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Stoke-on-Trent Central: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Stoke-on-Trent Central: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Stoke-on-Trent Central

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Stoke-on-Trent Central at the general election of 2015. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2015, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Stoke-on-Trent Central. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Stoke-on-Trent CentralActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Stoke-on-TrentAbbey Hulton and Townsend201502,12601,4898021,449
Stoke-on-TrentBaddeley, Milton and Norton20157,1234,20202,04905,247
Stoke-on-TrentBentilee and Ubberley201502,14801,95401,400
Stoke-on-TrentBirches Head and Central Forest Park20151,6252,474334003,458
Stoke-on-TrentBoothen and Oak Hill20150746193681201592
Stoke-on-TrentEaton Park201507940001,227
Stoke-on-TrentEtruria and Hanley201509251774371460
Stoke-on-TrentFenton West and Mount Pleasant201532150307700770
Stoke-on-TrentHanford and Trentham20153,5631,98001,95004,201
Stoke-on-TrentHanley Park and Shelton201509741310211205
Stoke-on-TrentHartshill and Basford20156461,095105509229153
Stoke-on-TrentJoiner's Square20150752129417156345
Stoke-on-TrentPenkhull and Stoke20155217457901791,209
Stoke-on-TrentSneyd Green2015688724000742
Stoke-on-TrentSpringfields and Trent Vale20150614184695182790

Stoke-on-Trent CentralTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Stoke-on-TrentAbbey Hulton and Townsend7,26701,31509214968963,628
Stoke-on-TrentBaddeley, Milton and Norton3,447658388018904851,720
Stoke-on-TrentBentilee and Ubberley8,07301,57401,43201,0264,032
Stoke-on-TrentBirches Head and Central Forest Park8,0528281,261170001,7624,021
Stoke-on-TrentBoothen and Oak Hill4,66007191866571945712,327
Stoke-on-TrentEaton Park3,36806610001,0211,682
Stoke-on-TrentEtruria and Hanley3,374092517743714601,685
Stoke-on-TrentFenton West and Mount Pleasant00000000
Stoke-on-TrentHanford and Trentham30000011
Stoke-on-TrentHanley Park and Shelton4,80701,53720703333242,401
Stoke-on-TrentHartshill and Basford4,877575974934532041362,435
Stoke-on-TrentJoiner's Square3,78007891354381643621,888
Stoke-on-TrentPenkhull and Stoke4,8314606587001581,0672,413
Stoke-on-TrentSneyd Green817130137000141408
Stoke-on-TrentSpringfields and Trent Vale4,89506091826891807832,443
 Total62,2512,65111,5471,2205,2161,8758,57531,084

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Stoke-on-Trent CentralEst. 2015 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Stoke-on-TrentAbbey Hulton and Townsend7,2676341,412491,0831872633,628
Stoke-on-TrentBaddeley, Milton and Norton3,44773746020354201301,721
Stoke-on-TrentBentilee and Ubberley8,0735591,711281,385592904,032
Stoke-on-TrentBirches Head and Central Forest Park8,0521,3921,393160616564024,019
Stoke-on-TrentBoothen and Oak Hill4,6603898471636361221702,327
Stoke-on-TrentEaton Park3,36845765231325171991,681
Stoke-on-TrentEtruria and Hanley3,3741409319936576741,685
Stoke-on-TrentFenton West and Mount Pleasant00000000
Stoke-on-TrentHanford and Trentham30000000
Stoke-on-TrentHanley Park and Shelton4,8073831,3062061861721482,401
Stoke-on-TrentHartshill and Basford4,8777028921234691321172,435
Stoke-on-TrentJoiner's Square3,78025587084467881231,887
Stoke-on-TrentPenkhull and Stoke4,831742809151366992452,412
Stoke-on-TrentSneyd Green817163131867534408
Stoke-on-TrentSpringfields and Trent Vale4,895455806173720902002,444
 Total62,2517,00812,2201,2957,0391,1232,39531,084

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Stoke-on-Trent Central

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Stoke-on-Trent Central.

Stoke-on-Trent CentralPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Stoke-on-TrentAbbey Hulton and Townsend7,2678061,1931341,0561802603,629
Stoke-on-TrentBaddeley, Milton and Norton3,44781735659341191281,720
Stoke-on-TrentBentilee and Ubberley8,0737471,4671201,355572864,032
Stoke-on-TrentBirches Head and Central Forest Park8,0521,5751,150250593543964,018
Stoke-on-TrentBoothen and Oak Hill4,6605007062176191171682,327
Stoke-on-TrentEaton Park3,36853555070313161961,680
Stoke-on-TrentEtruria and Hanley3,37422082913835373731,686
Stoke-on-TrentFenton West and Mount Pleasant00000000
Stoke-on-TrentHanford and Trentham30000000
Stoke-on-TrentHanley Park and Shelton4,8074911,1612591791651462,401
Stoke-on-TrentHartshill and Basford4,8778177451804521271152,436
Stoke-on-TrentJoiner's Square3,780344756128453841211,886
Stoke-on-TrentPenkhull and Stoke4,831854663206353952422,413
Stoke-on-TrentSneyd Green8171821061765534409
Stoke-on-TrentSpringfields and Trent Vale4,895570658230702861972,443
 Total62,2518,45810,3402,0086,8341,0782,36231,080

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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