Stoke-on-Trent North: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Stoke-on-Trent North: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2017: Ruth Smeeth  (LAB)
County/Area: Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 72,368
Turnout: 57.7%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB21,27250.9%51.3%
CON18,91345.3%41.5%
LIB9162.2%2.2%
Green6851.6%2.2%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
OTH00.0%0.5%
LAB Majority2,3595.6%Pred Maj 9.8%
Chance of
winning
LAB
66%
CON
34%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Stoke-on-Trent North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Stoke-on-Trent North constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWest MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerLABCONCON
Economic Position2° Left2° Right
National Position18° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %72%59%52%
British Identity24%28%29%
Good Health42%45%48%
UK Born93%89%88%
Good Education25%35%39%
Good Job36%48%51%
High SEC33%46%51%
Average Age48.448.748.5
ABC1 Class35%49%53%

Stoke-on-Trent North ranks #12 for "Leave", #401 for "Right" and #16 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Stoke-on-Trent North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Stoke-on-Trent North: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Stoke-on-Trent North

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Stoke-on-Trent North at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Stoke-on-Trent North. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Stoke-on-Trent NorthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Newcastle-under-LymeButt Lane20157831,506002790
Newcastle-under-LymeKidsgrove20157101,39108377654
Newcastle-under-LymeRavenscliffe201556861106040309
Newcastle-under-LymeTalke2015646884358000
Stoke-on-TrentAbbey Hulton and Townsend201502,12601,4898021,449
Stoke-on-TrentBaddeley, Milton and Norton20157,1234,20202,04905,247
Stoke-on-TrentBirches Head and Central Forest Park20151,6252,474334003,458
Stoke-on-TrentBradeley and Chell Heath2015089607880326
Stoke-on-TrentBurslem Central2015470919000477
Stoke-on-TrentBurslem Park201545379506852060
Stoke-on-TrentEtruria and Hanley201509251774371460
Stoke-on-TrentFord Green and Smallthorne2015712796000707
Stoke-on-TrentGoldenhill and Sandyford2015589965000581
Stoke-on-TrentGreat Chell and Packmoor20151,3802,0770004,074
Stoke-on-TrentLittle Chell and Stanfield20150843041001,018
Stoke-on-TrentMoorcroft20153431,15300140465
Stoke-on-TrentSneyd Green2015688724000742
Stoke-on-TrentTunstall2015280797000969

Stoke-on-Trent NorthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Newcastle-under-LymeButt Lane4,1907341,4130026202,409
Newcastle-under-LymeKidsgrove5,1216811,335080373522,944
Newcastle-under-LymeRavenscliffe3,080481517051102621,771
Newcastle-under-LymeTalke2,9115737843170001,674
Stoke-on-TrentAbbey Hulton and Townsend170402129
Stoke-on-TrentBaddeley, Milton and Norton9,5222,0941,235060201,5425,473
Stoke-on-TrentBirches Head and Central Forest Park40571001023
Stoke-on-TrentBradeley and Chell Heath4,07701,045091903802,344
Stoke-on-TrentBurslem Central4,7006811,3310006912,703
Stoke-on-TrentBurslem Park4,118501880075822802,367
Stoke-on-TrentEtruria and Hanley1,584050096236790911
Stoke-on-TrentFord Green and Smallthorne4,4208179130008112,541
Stoke-on-TrentGoldenhill and Sandyford4,3376881,1270006782,493
Stoke-on-TrentGreat Chell and Packmoor7,6588071,2140002,3814,402
Stoke-on-TrentLittle Chell and Stanfield4,73001,009049101,2192,719
Stoke-on-TrentMoorcroft4,5454271,434001745782,613
Stoke-on-TrentSneyd Green3,1655816120006271,820
Stoke-on-TrentTunstall4,4753521,0020001,2182,572
 Total72,6909,42216,3624144,32281710,45141,788

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Stoke-on-Trent NorthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Newcastle-under-LymeButt Lane4,1719381,30338013002,409
Newcastle-under-LymeKidsgrove5,0981,3231,46710604702,943
Newcastle-under-LymeRavenscliffe3,0661,006710470701,770
Newcastle-under-LymeTalke2,8986827871950901,673
Stoke-on-TrentAbbey Hulton and Townsend173500109
Stoke-on-TrentBaddeley, Milton and Norton9,4803,0812,2718403605,472
Stoke-on-TrentBirches Head and Central Forest Park401011100022
Stoke-on-TrentBradeley and Chell Heath4,0598731,4272901402,343
Stoke-on-TrentBurslem Central4,6791,1131,5261305102,703
Stoke-on-TrentBurslem Park4,1001,0471,16228013102,368
Stoke-on-TrentEtruria and Hanley1,577203607550460911
Stoke-on-TrentFord Green and Smallthorne4,4001,2441,2412503002,540
Stoke-on-TrentGoldenhill and Sandyford4,3181,1471,3102301302,493
Stoke-on-TrentGreat Chell and Packmoor7,6242,1692,1328701404,402
Stoke-on-TrentLittle Chell and Stanfield4,7091,0871,5416702402,719
Stoke-on-TrentMoorcroft4,5259971,5002009602,613
Stoke-on-TrentSneyd Green3,1519248374401501,820
Stoke-on-TrentTunstall4,4551,0631,4355302102,572
 Total72,69018,91021,2729150685041,788

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Stoke-on-Trent North

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Stoke-on-Trent North.

Stoke-on-Trent NorthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Newcastle-under-LymeButt Lane4,1718471,3123858143112,409
Newcastle-under-LymeKidsgrove5,0981,2121,4791067062142,943
Newcastle-under-LymeRavenscliffe3,06693971747421681,769
Newcastle-under-LymeTalke2,898619794195401881,674
Stoke-on-TrentAbbey Hulton and Townsend173500109
Stoke-on-TrentBaddeley, Milton and Norton9,4802,8742,2928413165265,472
Stoke-on-TrentBirches Head and Central Forest Park40911110022
Stoke-on-TrentBradeley and Chell Heath4,0597841,436295626112,342
Stoke-on-TrentBurslem Central4,6791,0111,537136565132,704
Stoke-on-TrentBurslem Park4,1009571,1712857143112,367
Stoke-on-TrentEtruria and Hanley1,5771696115522514912
Stoke-on-TrentFord Green and Smallthorne4,4001,1481,251256143122,540
Stoke-on-TrentGoldenhill and Sandyford4,3181,0531,320236026122,494
Stoke-on-TrentGreat Chell and Packmoor7,6242,0022,1498710537214,401
Stoke-on-TrentLittle Chell and Stanfield4,7099841,552676538132,719
Stoke-on-TrentMoorcroft4,5258981,5102063110122,613
Stoke-on-TrentSneyd Green3,15185584444442491,820
Stoke-on-TrentTunstall4,4559661,445536234122,572
 Total72,69017,33021,4369151,00290219741,782

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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