Stoke-on-Trent South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Stoke-on-Trent South: Overview

 Prediction: LAB gain from CON 

MP at 2017: Jack Brereton  (CON)
County/Area: Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 66,046
Turnout: 63.1%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON20,45149.1%45.3%
LAB19,78847.5%47.9%
LIB8081.9%1.9%
Green6431.5%2.1%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority6631.6%Pred Maj 2.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
46%
LAB
54%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Stoke-on-Trent South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Stoke-on-Trent South constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWest MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position1° Left2° Right
National Position16° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %69%59%52%
British Identity24%28%29%
Good Health42%45%48%
UK Born95%89%88%
Good Education27%35%39%
Good Job39%48%51%
High SEC36%46%51%
Average Age48.948.748.5
ABC1 Class37%49%53%

Stoke-on-Trent South ranks #28 for "Leave", #372 for "Right" and #35 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Stoke-on-Trent South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Stoke-on-Trent South: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Stoke-on-Trent South

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Stoke-on-Trent South at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Stoke-on-Trent South. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Stoke-on-Trent SouthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Stoke-on-TrentBlurton East201561572606570522
Stoke-on-TrentBlurton West and Newstead201543388305060222
Stoke-on-TrentBroadway and Longton East20155947990711052
Stoke-on-TrentDresden and Florence2015607829000966
Stoke-on-TrentFenton East201535470606520587
Stoke-on-TrentFenton West and Mount Pleasant201532150307700770
Stoke-on-TrentHanford and Trentham20153,5631,98001,95004,201
Stoke-on-TrentHanley Park and Shelton201509741310211205
Stoke-on-TrentHollybush and Longton West2015540965000825
Stoke-on-TrentLightwood North and Normacot20151,2771,126000419
Stoke-on-TrentMeir Hay20158328020592098
Stoke-on-TrentMeir North20154988320687099
Stoke-on-TrentMeir Park20151,9976540000
Stoke-on-TrentMeir South201542274604510284
Stoke-on-TrentSandford Hill201546391108550109
Stoke-on-TrentWeston Coyney20156745750545359283

Stoke-on-Trent SouthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Stoke-on-TrentBlurton East4,162616727065805222,523
Stoke-on-TrentBlurton West and Newstead4,6445961,216069703062,815
Stoke-on-TrentBroadway and Longton East4,07068091408130592,466
Stoke-on-TrentDresden and Florence4,0016138370009752,425
Stoke-on-TrentFenton East4,723441879081207312,863
Stoke-on-TrentFenton West and Mount Pleasant4,528373584089408942,745
Stoke-on-TrentHanford and Trentham9,1031,681934092001,9825,517
Stoke-on-TrentHanley Park and Shelton2108102213
Stoke-on-TrentHollybush and Longton West4,4916311,1270009642,722
Stoke-on-TrentLightwood North and Normacot4,1571,1401,0050003742,519
Stoke-on-TrentMeir Hay4,098889857063301052,484
Stoke-on-TrentMeir North4,6366611,105091201312,809
Stoke-on-TrentMeir Park3,7151,69655500002,251
Stoke-on-TrentMeir South4,3335821,029062203922,625
Stoke-on-TrentSandford Hill4,5455451,07301,00701282,753
Stoke-on-TrentWeston Coyney3,56459851004833182512,160
 Total68,79111,74213,36018,4513207,81641,690

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Stoke-on-Trent SouthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Stoke-on-TrentBlurton East3,9961,2541,2043303102,522
Stoke-on-TrentBlurton West and Newstead4,4591,1301,6193303202,814
Stoke-on-TrentBroadway and Longton East3,9081,1821,2402601802,466
Stoke-on-TrentDresden and Florence3,8411,1581,1975101802,424
Stoke-on-TrentFenton East4,5351,2811,4736304602,863
Stoke-on-TrentFenton West and Mount Pleasant4,3471,2051,4009104902,745
Stoke-on-TrentHanford and Trentham8,7403,2871,97617807705,518
Stoke-on-TrentHanley Park and Shelton2038101013
Stoke-on-TrentHollybush and Longton West4,3121,1201,5404301902,722
Stoke-on-TrentLightwood North and Normacot3,9911,4051,0722701502,519
Stoke-on-TrentMeir Hay3,9341,2661,1722202402,484
Stoke-on-TrentMeir North4,4511,1921,5325802802,810
Stoke-on-TrentMeir Park3,5671,575630360902,250
Stoke-on-TrentMeir South4,1601,1961,3574602702,626
Stoke-on-TrentSandford Hill4,3641,1511,5094005502,755
Stoke-on-TrentWeston Coyney3,4221,04686060019402,160
 Total68,79120,45119,7898080643041,690

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Stoke-on-Trent South

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Stoke-on-Trent South.

Stoke-on-Trent SouthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Stoke-on-TrentBlurton East3,9961,1591,214336044122,522
Stoke-on-TrentBlurton West and Newstead4,4591,0231,630336747132,813
Stoke-on-TrentBroadway and Longton East3,9081,0891,250265931122,467
Stoke-on-TrentDresden and Florence3,8411,0661,207515831112,424
Stoke-on-TrentFenton East4,5351,1731,484636961132,863
Stoke-on-TrentFenton West and Mount Pleasant4,3471,1011,411916663132,745
Stoke-on-TrentHanford and Trentham8,7403,0781,998178132106265,518
Stoke-on-TrentHanley Park and Shelton2038101013
Stoke-on-TrentHollybush and Longton West4,3121,0171,551436533132,722
Stoke-on-TrentLightwood North and Normacot3,9911,3101,082276028122,519
Stoke-on-TrentMeir Hay3,9341,1721,182225937122,484
Stoke-on-TrentMeir North4,4511,0861,543586743132,810
Stoke-on-TrentMeir Park3,5671,490639365421112,251
Stoke-on-TrentMeir South4,1601,0971,367466341122,626
Stoke-on-TrentSandford Hill4,3641,0471,520406669132,755
Stoke-on-TrentWeston Coyney3,4229648686052205102,159
 Total68,79118,87519,95480899786119641,691

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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