Strangford: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Strangford: Overview

 Prediction: DUP hold 

MP at 2017: Jim Shannon  (DUP)
County/Area: Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 64,327
Turnout: 60.2%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
DUP24,03662.0%
MIN5,69314.7%
UUP4,41911.4%
SDLP2,4046.2%
SF1,0832.8%
Green6071.6%
OTH5071.3%
LIB Majority18,34347.3%

EU Referendum vote:

Remain 44%
56% Leave

Strangford ranks #270 for "Leave" out of 650 seats.

Strangford: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Strangford: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Strangford

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Strangford at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Strangford. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

StrangfordActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East201413928427800124427
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken201413527526900120414
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh20149004950690369
Newry, Mourne and DownBallynahinch201437827539400115282
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh201438127739800116285
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy201436026137500109269
Newry, Mourne and DownKilmore201434525136000105258
Newry, Mourne and DownSaintfield201435425736900107264
North Down and ArdsBallygowan201430405409500439
North Down and ArdsBallywalter20142202546240071157
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore20142042365810066147
North Down and ArdsComber North201427904948700401
North Down and ArdsComber South201426404688200380
North Down and ArdsComber West201427104808500390
North Down and ArdsConway Square20141790420000578
North Down and ArdsCronstown20141930452000621
North Down and ArdsGlen20141800421000579
North Down and ArdsGregstown20141480347000477
North Down and ArdsKillinchy201425104457800361
North Down and ArdsKircubbin20142112446000068151
North Down and ArdsLoughries20141802095130058129
North Down and ArdsMovilla20141840432000594
North Down and ArdsPortaferry20141872165310060134
North Down and ArdsPortavogie20141972285600064141
North Down and ArdsScrabo20141620381000523
North Down and ArdsWest Winds20141880441000606

StrangfordTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East408275655002484246
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken178122424001137108
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh1,984105057908104311,196
Newry, Mourne and DownBallynahinch3,040480349500001463581,833
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,88329721631000902221,135
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy2,486393285409001192931,499
Newry, Mourne and DownKilmore2,775438318457001333271,673
Newry, Mourne and DownSaintfield2,846449326469001363351,715
North Down and ArdsBallygowan2,9403910694122005651,772
North Down and ArdsBallywalter3,118312360884001012231,880
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore2,06020523758500661481,241
North Down and ArdsComber North2,6893590635112005151,621
North Down and ArdsComber South2,5493400602106004891,537
North Down and ArdsComber West2,6173490618109005021,578
North Down and ArdsConway Square2,96727206380008781,788
North Down and ArdsCronstown3,19129306870009431,923
North Down and ArdsGlen2,97427306400008801,793
North Down and ArdsGregstown2,45222505280007251,478
North Down and ArdsKillinchy2,4233230573100004651,461
North Down and ArdsKircubbin2,99929934685100962141,806
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,4071401634000045100848
North Down and ArdsMovilla3,05228006570009031,840
North Down and ArdsPortaferry2,65126530675200851901,598
North Down and ArdsPortavogie2,79727932379300912001,686
North Down and ArdsScrabo2,68624605790007941,619
North Down and ArdsWest Winds3,11428606700009211,877
 Total64,2867,3383,30914,589549811,14311,74238,751

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

StrangfordEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East4081641118042345247
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken17871752021020108
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh1,98563081109402281,196
Newry, Mourne and DownBallynahinch3,0422892549390241381891,833
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,884179157582015851181,136
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy2,4882372077680201131551,500
Newry, Mourne and DownKilmore2,7772642318570221261731,673
Newry, Mourne and DownSaintfield2,8482702378790231291761,714
North Down and ArdsBallygowan2,94223501,21002902981,772
North Down and ArdsBallywalter3,1201882621,200018961181,882
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore2,06112317279301263781,241
North Down and ArdsComber North2,69121601,10702602721,621
North Down and ArdsComber South2,55120501,04902502581,537
North Down and ArdsComber West2,61921001,07702602651,578
North Down and ArdsConway Square2,96916401,13302804641,789
North Down and ArdsCronstown3,19317601,21903004981,923
North Down and ArdsGlen2,97616401,13602804651,793
North Down and ArdsGregstown2,454135093702303831,478
North Down and ArdsKillinchy2,425195099702402451,461
North Down and ArdsKircubbin3,0011802511,154017911131,806
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,40884118542084352847
North Down and ArdsMovilla3,05416901,16602804771,840
North Down and ArdsPortaferry2,6531602221,020015811001,598
North Down and ArdsPortavogie2,7991682351,076016861061,687
North Down and ArdsScrabo2,68814801,02702504191,619
North Down and ArdsWest Winds3,11617201,19002904871,878
 Total64,2864,4172,40424,03906111,0846,20238,751

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Strangford

This table shows the estimated 2017 general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Strangford.

StrangfordEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East4081641118042345247
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken17871752021020108
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh1,98563081109402281,196
Newry, Mourne and DownBallynahinch3,0422892549390241381891,833
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,884179157582015851181,136
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy2,4882372077680201131551,500
Newry, Mourne and DownKilmore2,7772642318570221261731,673
Newry, Mourne and DownSaintfield2,8482702378790231291761,714
North Down and ArdsBallygowan2,94223501,21002902981,772
North Down and ArdsBallywalter3,1201882621,200018961181,882
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore2,06112317279301263781,241
North Down and ArdsComber North2,69121601,10702602721,621
North Down and ArdsComber South2,55120501,04902502581,537
North Down and ArdsComber West2,61921001,07702602651,578
North Down and ArdsConway Square2,96916401,13302804641,789
North Down and ArdsCronstown3,19317601,21903004981,923
North Down and ArdsGlen2,97616401,13602804651,793
North Down and ArdsGregstown2,454135093702303831,478
North Down and ArdsKillinchy2,425195099702402451,461
North Down and ArdsKircubbin3,0011802511,154017911131,806
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,40884118542084352847
North Down and ArdsMovilla3,05416901,16602804771,840
North Down and ArdsPortaferry2,6531602221,020015811001,598
North Down and ArdsPortavogie2,7991682351,076016861061,687
North Down and ArdsScrabo2,68814801,02702504191,619
North Down and ArdsWest Winds3,11617201,19002904871,878
 Total64,2864,4172,40424,03906111,0846,20238,757

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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