Stratford-on-Avon: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Stratford-on-Avon: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Nadhim Zahawi  (CON)
County/Area: Warwickshire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 72,609
Turnout: 72.3%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON32,65762.2%58.4%
LAB11,69922.3%22.7%
LIB6,35712.1%12.1%
Green1,3452.6%3.1%
OTH4740.9%1.4%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
CON Majority20,95839.9%Pred Maj 35.7%
Chance of
winning
CON
92%
LAB
7%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
UKIP
0%

Stratford-on-Avon : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Stratford-on-Avon constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWest MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position11° Right2° Right
National Position7° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %51%59%52%
British Identity28%28%29%
Good Health48%45%48%
UK Born93%89%88%
Good Education45%35%39%
Good Job58%48%51%
High SEC61%46%51%
Average Age53.148.748.5
ABC1 Class63%49%53%

Stratford-on-Avon ranks #380 for "Leave", #76 for "Right" and #211 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Stratford-on-Avon: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Stratford-on-Avon: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Stratford-on-Avon

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Stratford-on-Avon at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Stratford-on-Avon. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Stratford-on-AvonActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Stratford On AvonAlcester Town20151,0712255780940
Stratford On AvonAlcester and Rural20151,557221426000
Stratford On AvonAvenue20155111961790102203
Stratford On AvonBidford East201596435615430200
Stratford On AvonBidford West and Salford20151,150411036100
Stratford On AvonBishopton201574516971101430
Stratford On AvonBrailes and Compton20151,569308306000
Stratford On AvonBridgetown20151,08721488801670
Stratford On AvonClopton2015289330229058188
Stratford On AvonEttington20151,4351842512091170
Stratford On AvonGuildhall20156511957460154198
Stratford On AvonHathaway201545820246401430
Stratford On AvonHenley-in-Arden20151,62427619702130
Stratford On AvonKineton20151,2451731802811370
Stratford On AvonKinwarton20151,173147415000
Stratford On AvonQuinton20151,13415917422900
Stratford On AvonRed Horse20151,31727320232000
Stratford On AvonShipston North20151,15855002931650
Stratford On AvonShipston South2015756294740203900
Stratford On AvonShottery20158151565591781580
Stratford On AvonSnitterfield20151,48819625102110
Stratford On AvonStudley with Mappleborough Green20158712757930940
Stratford On AvonStudley with Sambourne201565536462820744111
Stratford On AvonTanworth-in-Arden20151,3083551299300
Stratford On AvonTiddington20158961671,08601070
Stratford On AvonWelcombe20156591642820104579
Stratford On AvonWelford-on-Avon2015964116000975
Stratford On AvonWellesbourne East20151,1381776412281280
Stratford On AvonWootton Wawen20151,1681932323801540

Stratford-on-AvonTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Stratford On AvonAlcester Town3,1811,282269692011302,356
Stratford On AvonAlcester and Rural2,9131,5242164170002,157
Stratford On AvonAvenue1,90960723321301212411,415
Stratford On AvonBidford East2,7551,108409177347002,041
Stratford On AvonBidford West and Salford2,7671,2264380385002,049
Stratford On AvonBishopton2,653828188790015901,965
Stratford On AvonBrailes and Compton2,6261,3982742730001,945
Stratford On AvonBridgetown3,1971,093215893016802,369
Stratford On AvonClopton1,9023724252950752421,409
Stratford On AvonEttington2,7381,32517023219310802,028
Stratford On AvonGuildhall2,68966720076401582031,992
Stratford On AvonHathaway2,336626276634019501,731
Stratford On AvonHenley-in-Arden3,0481,587270193020802,258
Stratford On AvonKineton1868512121990137
Stratford On AvonKinwarton2,0411,0221283620001,512
Stratford On AvonQuinton2,2921,135159174229001,697
Stratford On AvonRed Horse1,2705871229014300942
Stratford On AvonShipston North2,8601,133538028716102,119
Stratford On AvonShipston South2,7937512927352028902,069
Stratford On AvonShottery2,48580415455117615601,841
Stratford On AvonSnitterfield2,7911,434189242020302,068
Stratford On AvonStudley with Mappleborough Green3,001952301867010302,223
Stratford On AvonStudley with Sambourne3,038734408703232491242,250
Stratford On AvonTanworth-in-Arden2,4891,27934712691001,843
Stratford On AvonTiddington2,79382215399609802,069
Stratford On AvonWelcombe2,61471417830501136271,937
Stratford On AvonWelford-on-Avon2,5618901070009001,897
Stratford On AvonWellesbourne East163599331270120
Stratford On AvonWootton Wawen2,8231,14819022837415102,091
 Total70,91427,1926,87010,9972,6902,4442,33752,530

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Stratford-on-AvonEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Stratford On AvonAlcester Town3,2571,25964538805872,357
Stratford On AvonAlcester and Rural2,9831,52136324602262,158
Stratford On AvonAvenue1,955762427138055321,414
Stratford On AvonBidford East2,8211,31151619001782,042
Stratford On AvonBidford West and Salford2,8331,38050512702992,050
Stratford On AvonBishopton2,7161,059428384079151,965
Stratford On AvonBrailes and Compton2,6891,38232018205391,946
Stratford On AvonBridgetown3,2731,366482424083132,368
Stratford On AvonClopton1,947586543214037291,409
Stratford On AvonEttington2,8031,48432715505472,027
Stratford On AvonGuildhall2,7531,0244703630102321,991
Stratford On AvonHathaway2,39285548729108891,730
Stratford On AvonHenley-in-Arden3,1211,573457149066122,257
Stratford On AvonKineton190992310041137
Stratford On AvonKinwarton2,0901,04226018302071,512
Stratford On AvonQuinton2,3471,16632418801471,699
Stratford On AvonRed Horse1,300647180950164942
Stratford On AvonShipston North2,9281,42149013306792,120
Stratford On AvonShipston South2,8601,164493359043102,069
Stratford On AvonShottery2,5441,053395283098141,843
Stratford On AvonSnitterfield2,8581,44336817407852,068
Stratford On AvonStudley with Mappleborough Green3,0731,343448381040122,224
Stratford On AvonStudley with Sambourne3,1111,160719316033232,251
Stratford On AvonTanworth-in-Arden2,5481,397355830361,844
Stratford On AvonTiddington2,8601,22338641403982,070
Stratford On AvonWelcombe2,6761,098483214071711,937
Stratford On AvonWelford-on-Avon2,6221,30937896016981,897
Stratford On AvonWellesbourne East167752418030120
Stratford On AvonWootton Wawen2,8901,458408158057112,092
 Total70,91432,66011,7046,35601,34547452,530

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Stratford-on-Avon

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Stratford-on-Avon.

Stratford-on-AvonPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Stratford On AvonAlcester Town3,2571,1706543885670182,356
Stratford On AvonAlcester and Rural2,9831,4393712465233162,157
Stratford On AvonAvenue1,9557084331383462391,414
Stratford On AvonBidford East2,8211,2345241904928182,043
Stratford On AvonBidford West and Salford2,8331,3025131274940192,050
Stratford On AvonBishopton2,7169854363844789241,965
Stratford On AvonBrailes and Compton2,6891,3083281824763181,946
Stratford On AvonBridgetown3,2731,2764914245795242,367
Stratford On AvonClopton1,9475335492143444361,410
Stratford On AvonEttington2,8031,4073351554865172,027
Stratford On AvonGuildhall2,75394947836348112411,991
Stratford On AvonHathaway2,3927904942914197171,730
Stratford On AvonHenley-in-Arden3,1211,4884661495478232,258
Stratford On AvonKineton190942410352138
Stratford On AvonKinwarton2,0909852661833628141,512
Stratford On AvonQuinton2,3471,1023311884123151,700
Stratford On AvonRed Horse1,3006111849523218942
Stratford On AvonShipston North2,9281,3414981335178192,120
Stratford On AvonShipston South2,8601,0865013594954202,069
Stratford On AvonShottery2,54498340228344108231,843
Stratford On AvonSnitterfield2,8581,3653761744989152,068
Stratford On AvonStudley with Mappleborough Green3,0731,2594573815352222,224
Stratford On AvonStudley with Sambourne3,1111,0757283165445342,252
Stratford On AvonTanworth-in-Arden2,5481,327362834413151,844
Stratford On AvonTiddington2,8601,1453944145050182,071
Stratford On AvonWelcombe2,6761,0254912144681801,937
Stratford On AvonWelford-on-Avon2,6221,2373859645261071,896
Stratford On AvonWellesbourne East167702418341120
Stratford On AvonWootton Wawen2,8901,3794161585068212,092
 Total70,91430,67311,9116,3561,2571,62172452,542

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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