Stroud: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Stroud: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2017: David Drew  (LAB)
County/Area: Gloucestershire (South West)
Electorate: 82,849
Turnout: 77.0%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB29,99447.0%45.9%
CON29,30745.9%42.9%
LIB2,0533.2%3.3%
Green1,4232.2%3.4%
UKIP1,0391.6%4.6%
LAB Majority6871.1%Pred Maj 3.0%
Chance of
winning
LAB
53%
CON
47%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%

Stroud : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Stroud constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerLABCONCON
Economic Position9° Left1° Right
National Position7° Int1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %46%53%52%
British Identity29%27%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born95%92%88%
Good Education44%40%39%
Good Job53%50%51%
High SEC56%52%51%
Average Age51.350.548.5
ABC1 Class56%54%53%

Stroud ranks #481 for "Leave", #498 for "Right" and #482 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Stroud: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Stroud: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Stroud

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Stroud at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Stroud. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

StroudActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
StroudAmberley and Woodchester2012445176001170
StroudBerkeley2014818605001610
StroudBisley20144647001203650
StroudCainscross20151,4551,89300668112
StroudCam East20151,441847003030
StroudCam West201584894403941710
StroudCentral2015362430004890
StroudChalford20151,92091904317810
StroudCoaley and Uley2014411186003840
StroudDursley20151,2821,679632000
StroudEastington and Standish2015477467001440
StroudFarmhill and Paganhill201547237601611417
StroudHardwicke2014780333002570
StroudNailsworth20151,7441,26300794196
StroudPainswick20141,00521702964070
StroudRandwick, Whiteshill and Ruscombe2014151249003830
StroudRodborough201576595348505760
StroudSevern2014894359003180
StroudSlade2015273375004430
StroudStonehouse20151,4412,1680055771
StroudThe Stanleys201454144702562100
StroudThrupp201541422101257220
StroudTrinity2015267307007370
StroudUplands20153455070032623
StroudUpton St Leonards2012552132001300
StroudVale201447780001020
StroudValley20152614320068542

StroudTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
StroudAmberley and Woodchester1,6858053180021201,335
StroudBerkeley3,3801,3831,0230027202,678
StroudBisley1,64759490015446801,306
StroudCainscross5,8851,6442,139007551274,665
StroudCam East3,3311,4688630030902,640
StroudCam West3,2439251,029043018602,570
StroudCentral1,7643954690053401,398
StroudChalford5,3101,995955044881104,209
StroudCoaley and Uley1,8526152780057501,468
StroudDursley5,4111,5302,0047540004,288
StroudEastington and Standish1,4425014910015101,143
StroudFarmhill and Paganhill1,769572456019517181,402
StroudHardwicke3,8781,7507470057703,074
StroudNailsworth5,3361,8451,336008402074,228
StroudPainswick3,3881,402303041356802,686
StroudRandwick, Whiteshill and Ruscombe1,3912133510053901,103
StroudRodborough3,6818031,000509060502,917
StroudSevern3,8601,7416990061903,059
StroudSlade1,6143204400051901,279
StroudStonehouse6,2181,6762,52200648834,929
StroudThe Stanleys3,188940777044536502,527
StroudThrupp1,890418223012673001,497
StroudTrinity1,8072923350080501,432
StroudUplands1,77840559500382271,409
StroudUpton St Leonards2,3161,2452980029301,836
StroudVale1,5078641450018501,194
StroudValley1,95128447000746461,546
 Total80,52226,62520,3561,2632,21112,86549863,818

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

StroudEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
StroudAmberley and Woodchester1,7348304363103801,335
StroudBerkeley3,4781,2571,30837512602,679
StroudBisley1,69573445145393701,306
StroudCainscross6,0551,8372,62366588004,664
StroudCam East3,4271,4601,07561222102,639
StroudCam West3,3371,1141,258291551402,570
StroudCentral1,81551077136126901,398
StroudChalford5,4632,1591,71710111511804,210
StroudCoaley and Uley1,9067326484514201,468
StroudDursley5,5671,7722,038422361904,287
StroudEastington and Standish1,48458051612221201,142
StroudFarmhill and Paganhill1,82057270343681701,403
StroudHardwicke3,9901,7051,27123363803,073
StroudNailsworth5,4901,9372,017156111604,227
StroudPainswick3,4861,51095362976302,685
StroudRandwick, Whiteshill and Ruscombe1,4313626325015701,102
StroudRodborough3,7871,1111,37033079902,917
StroudSevern3,9721,8031,15826334003,060
StroudSlade1,66138077736236201,278
StroudStonehouse6,3981,8402,873109565104,929
StroudThe Stanleys3,2801,1161,201391313902,526
StroudThrupp1,94563471253316701,497
StroudTrinity1,8594108428109901,432
StroudUplands1,82952079039144601,409
StroudUpton St Leonards2,3831,15361827132501,836
StroudVale1,5518203408131201,193
StroudValley2,00744389888411401,547
 Total80,52229,30129,9962,0551,0391,421063,818

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Stroud

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Stroud.

StroudPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
StroudAmberley and Woodchester1,73478942132395301,334
StroudBerkeley3,4781,1761,279381305702,680
StroudBisley1,69569443746775201,306
StroudCainscross6,0551,6952,5726819513304,663
StroudCam East3,4271,3801,046621005102,639
StroudCam West3,3371,0361,230302314302,570
StroudCentral1,81546875637538501,399
StroudChalford5,4632,0311,67110323916604,210
StroudCoaley and Uley1,90668763246445901,468
StroudDursley5,5671,6421,9914241626804,287
StroudEastington and Standish1,48454550313562501,142
StroudFarmhill and Paganhill1,820529688441093301,403
StroudHardwicke3,9901,6121,237251267303,073
StroudNailsworth5,4901,8091,97115812516404,227
StroudPainswick3,4861,428923631769402,684
StroudRandwick, Whiteshill and Ruscombe1,43132962051337001,103
StroudRodborough3,7871,0221,3383329313202,917
StroudSevern3,9721,7101,124281237503,060
StroudSlade1,66134176337617701,279
StroudStonehouse6,3981,6902,81911220110704,929
StroudThe Stanleys3,2801,0391,173402056802,525
StroudThrupp1,94558969654758401,498
StroudTrinity1,859367826824211501,432
StroudUplands1,82947777540556201,409
StroudUpton St Leonards2,3831,09759828674601,836
StroudVale1,5517843279482601,194
StroudValley2,007396881895013201,548
 Total80,52227,36229,2972,0912,9152,150063,815

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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