Suffolk Central and Ipswich North: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Suffolk Central and Ipswich North: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Dan Poulter  (CON)
County/Area: Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 78,116
Turnout: 72.4%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON33,99260.1%56.4%
LAB16,80729.7%30.1%
LIB2,4314.3%4.3%
Green1,6592.9%3.5%
UKIP1,6352.9%5.3%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority17,18530.4%Pred Maj 26.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
88%
LAB
13%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Suffolk Central and Ipswich North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Suffolk Central and Ipswich North constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right8° Right
National Position9° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %55%57%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born95%89%88%
Good Education38%37%39%
Good Job52%53%51%
High SEC55%53%51%
Average Age52.049.448.5
ABC1 Class55%55%53%

Suffolk Central and Ipswich North ranks #278 for "Leave", #114 for "Right" and #150 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Suffolk Central and Ipswich North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Suffolk Central and Ipswich North: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Suffolk Central and Ipswich North

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Suffolk Central and Ipswich North at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Suffolk Central and Ipswich North. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Suffolk Central and Ipswich NorthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
IpswichCastle Hill20151,9331,0242356072030
IpswichWhitehouse20151,1741,1941337411610
IpswichWhitton20151,6401,596291000
Mid SuffolkBarking and Somersham201554201541940411
Mid SuffolkBramford and Blakenham20151,52608855610668
Mid SuffolkClaydon and Barham20152,5435155500384158
Mid SuffolkDebenham2015679293681571510
Mid SuffolkEye20150000531639
Mid SuffolkFressingfield2015885304269000
Mid SuffolkHelmingham and Coddenham20159560395000
Mid SuffolkHoxne201583940000650
Mid SuffolkMendlesham20155080008710
Mid SuffolkPalgrave2015870226002410
Mid SuffolkStradbroke and Laxfield20151,0830004640
Mid SuffolkThe Stonhams2015834016404250
Mid SuffolkWetheringsett20158250006470
Mid SuffolkWorlingworth2015-100000
Suffolk CoastalFramlingham20153,11568908071,0420
Suffolk CoastalFynn Valley20151,379270002440
Suffolk CoastalGrundisburgh20151,299381339000
Suffolk CoastalHacheston20151,12530917403610
Suffolk CoastalKesgrave East20153,9121,573593000
Suffolk CoastalKesgrave West20154,1031,704081900
Suffolk CoastalTower20153,8631,6940000
Suffolk CoastalWickham Market201574630231331300
Suffolk CoastalWoodbridge20156,9613,0161,4097551,9180

Suffolk Central and Ipswich NorthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
IpswichCastle Hill5,8962,0431,08224864221504,230
IpswichWhitehouse7,0691,7501,7801981,10424005,072
IpswichWhitton6,4462,1512,0933820004,626
Mid SuffolkBarking and Somersham1,719514014618403901,234
Mid SuffolkBramford and Blakenham3,150948055034804152,261
Mid SuffolkClaydon and Barham3,7311,64033235502481022,677
Mid SuffolkDebenham1,8866822946815815201,354
Mid SuffolkEye1,71500005586721,230
Mid SuffolkFressingfield1,8227942732410001,308
Mid SuffolkHelmingham and Coddenham1,84693703870001,324
Mid SuffolkHoxne1,636755360005901,174
Mid SuffolkMendlesham1,79847500081501,290
Mid SuffolkPalgrave1,8428602230023801,321
Mid SuffolkStradbroke and Laxfield2,0341,02200043801,460
Mid SuffolkThe Stonhams1,8617830154039901,336
Mid SuffolkWetheringsett2,01080800063401,442
Mid SuffolkWorlingworth1,9281,383000001,383
Suffolk CoastalFramlingham4,5001,779394046159503,229
Suffolk CoastalFynn Valley2,4441,2772500022601,753
Suffolk CoastalGrundisburgh2,6271,2133563160001,885
Suffolk CoastalHacheston2,274932256144029901,631
Suffolk CoastalKesgrave East5,7792,6691,0734050004,147
Suffolk CoastalKesgrave West5,6302,5011,0390499004,039
Suffolk CoastalTower4,1142,05290000002,952
Suffolk CoastalWickham Market2,138684277287287001,535
Suffolk CoastalWoodbridge8853141366434870635
 Total78,78030,96611,1183,9453,7175,2031,57956,528

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Suffolk Central and Ipswich NorthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
IpswichCastle Hill5,8462,1741,6211402237304,231
IpswichWhitehouse7,0092,0672,4261123838405,072
IpswichWhitton6,3922,0862,2191571343004,626
Mid SuffolkBarking and Somersham1,70576333378441601,234
Mid SuffolkBramford and Blakenham3,1231,3415651911471602,260
Mid SuffolkClaydon and Barham3,7001,715708150465902,678
Mid SuffolkDebenham1,87081736163506201,353
Mid SuffolkEye1,701541482423313301,231
Mid SuffolkFressingfield1,80787427182314901,307
Mid SuffolkHelmingham and Coddenham1,83094619213644601,324
Mid SuffolkHoxne1,6228032974043001,174
Mid SuffolkMendlesham1,783775322201116301,291
Mid SuffolkPalgrave1,8269732297397401,322
Mid SuffolkStradbroke and Laxfield2,0171,05620079359101,461
Mid SuffolkThe Stonhams1,84589326672139101,335
Mid SuffolkWetheringsett1,9931,004267162513001,442
Mid SuffolkWorlingworth1,9121,1721352794001,383
Suffolk CoastalFramlingham4,4622,1237179411717703,228
Suffolk CoastalFynn Valley2,4231,2863624455601,753
Suffolk CoastalGrundisburgh2,6051,22745418131901,884
Suffolk CoastalHacheston2,2551,0843846459401,631
Suffolk CoastalKesgrave East5,7302,5551,241309103204,147
Suffolk CoastalKesgrave West5,5832,5191,275741492204,039
Suffolk CoastalTower4,0791,961866100131202,952
Suffolk CoastalWickham Market2,120868429109953401,535
Suffolk CoastalWoodbridge878369185459280636
 Total78,78033,99216,8072,4321,6371,661056,528

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Suffolk Central and Ipswich North

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Suffolk Central and Ipswich North.

Suffolk Central and Ipswich NorthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
IpswichCastle Hill5,8462,0161,63714032395204,231
IpswichWhitehouse7,0091,8772,446112503110245,072
IpswichWhitton6,3921,9132,23715724354214,625
Mid SuffolkBarking and Somersham1,70571733878732261,234
Mid SuffolkBramford and Blakenham3,1231,25657419120028102,259
Mid SuffolkClaydon and Barham3,7001,61571815010973122,677
Mid SuffolkDebenham1,87076636663826961,352
Mid SuffolkEye1,701495487426213961,231
Mid SuffolkFressingfield1,80782527682625661,307
Mid SuffolkHelmingham and Coddenham1,830896197136355361,323
Mid SuffolkHoxne1,62275930240323651,174
Mid SuffolkMendlesham1,783727327204217061,292
Mid SuffolkPalgrave1,8269242347708161,322
Mid SuffolkStradbroke and Laxfield2,0171,00120679709971,462
Mid SuffolkThe Stonhams1,84584327172459861,335
Mid SuffolkWetheringsett1,993950273165913771,442
Mid SuffolkWorlingworth1,9121,12014027424761,382
Suffolk CoastalFramlingham4,4622,00273094193194153,228
Suffolk CoastalFynn Valley2,4231,22036944466581,752
Suffolk CoastalGrundisburgh2,6051,157461181482991,885
Suffolk CoastalHacheston2,2551,023390644410281,631
Suffolk CoastalKesgrave East5,7302,4001,25730910853194,146
Suffolk CoastalKesgrave West5,5832,3681,2917424543194,040
Suffolk CoastalTower4,0791,8518771008327142,952
Suffolk CoastalWickham Market2,1208114351091314271,535
Suffolk CoastalWoodbridge8783451874524313635
 Total78,78031,87717,0262,4322,9741,95326256,524

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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